土耳其计划到2035年新增89GW的太阳能和风能装机容量

文摘   2024-10-30 18:10   北京  


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据路透社10月16日的报道,能源智库Ember的数据显示,土耳其在2024年1-9月期间使用煤电的时间达到了创纪录的88TWh,比2023年同期增长了2%,超过老牌燃煤发电国—德国和波兰。煤电导致的排放量也创下新高,达到8840万吨二氧化碳,比去年同期增加150万吨,而德国和波兰的二氧化碳排放量都是有记录以来的最低水平。


然而,冬季即将到来,土耳其的水电和太阳能产量都将降至低点,这将迫使电力供应商在年底前提高煤炭使用量,以满足系统需求。


与此同时,土耳其正在推动能源转型进程,并于近日启动一项新的能源转型路线图计划,目标是到2035年将风能和太阳能的装机容量增加四倍,达到120GW。

土耳其近期启动了一项高达1080亿美元的能源转型路线图,政府计划到2035年将风能和太阳能发电装机容量增长四倍,达到120GW。在即将到来的新一轮可再生能源区域计划(YEKA)项目拍卖也将采用新规则,包括把固定价格保证期延长至20年。


土耳其能源和自然资源部部长Alparslan Bayraktar表示,土耳其正在推动一项价值800亿美元可再生能源滚动投资(investing cycle),计划能在2035年实现该目标。如果同时算上核电传输网络的建设,总投资将达到1080亿美元。


该部门预计到2035年,土耳其的总用电量将达到510.5TWh,而该国2023年的用电量为335.2TWh。新的能源转型路线图旨在帮助土耳其在未来的30年内,成为电力净出口国。


政府将2035年的目标提高20GW

Bayraktar在会上表示,土耳其在今年9月的风电装机容量为12.4GW,光伏装机容量为18.7GW。国家2035年的目标几乎是当下的四倍,即让总装机容量达到120GW,其中包括5GW的海上风电。


今年9月,Bayraktar表示土耳其希望到2035年将其风能和太阳能发电总容量提高到100吉瓦。相比当时的目标,此次的新目标提高了惊人的20GW。


国际可再生能源机构(IRENA)在今年3月发布的数据显示,包括塞浦路斯在内的所有东南欧国家,其太阳能装机容量为15GW,风电装机为11.3GW。其中,希腊的太阳能和风电装机分别为7GW和5.2GW。


自那时起,土耳其的风电装机增加了1.1GW,太阳能装机激增了7GW。


根据最近的一次更新,土耳其的可再生能源发电装机容量为67.4GW,占总装机容量的59%。其中容量最大的是水电,达到32.2GW。目前正在开发的项目中,近一半的装机包括储能。


能源和自然资源部表示,目前正在进行的项目包括43.5GW的太阳能发电厂和26.1GW的风力发电厂项目。这些装机量总计69.6GW的项目中,有33.9GW的设施将配置储能装置。


在所谓的无许可证部分,23.5GW的装机用于自用,3GW的装机通过拍卖分配,其余9.2GW则通过其他类型的许可证获得。

Bayraktar:审批时间将缩短至两年或更短

Bayraktar还介绍了风能和太阳能拍卖新规及项目许可规则的变更。政府旨在将当前四年的审批时间至少减半,还提出紧急征用的可能措施。


拍卖中的一项新规定是,为中标者提供初始阶段的最低保证价格。也就是说,风力发电场和太阳能发电场的运营商将分别在前六年和前五年在公开市场上出售电力。


在下一轮可再生能源区域(YEKA)计划中,将涉及容量为1.2GW的风电项目拍卖,和容量为800MW的光伏发电项目拍卖。其中,1.2GW的风电项目拍卖将在1月28日举行,800MW的光伏发电项目拍卖将在2月4日举行。


更重要的是,在该计划下,固定价格保证期将延长至20年。这一变更对单边差价合同(CfD)的融资意义重大。此外,变更还包括豁免输配电费,并根据外汇汇率公式定价。

土耳其拥有绿色能源转型

所需的强大制造业基础

土耳其政府坚持要求高比例的本地生产设备和劳动力参与。目前,土耳其有150家设备生产商和350家供应商,雇用了50,000名员工。


这些公司生产用于生物质、水电和生物质装置的发电机、涡轮机和电力电子设备,以及风力涡轮机、塔架和叶片。同时,还包含太阳能组件所需要的从硅锭(ingot)开始的所有环节的生产。

进口输电能力需提高五倍

“土耳其需要将与邻国的电力互联容量提高三到四倍。”Bayraktar强调说,“到2035年,将安装长达1.47万公里的高压直流线路(HVDC)。”


能源和自然资源部明确指出,计划将电力线路长度增加26.6%,达到95,500公里。这一线路的开关站数也将从目前的798个增加至942个。根据路线图,电力出口的互联容量预计将在11年内增长三倍,达到6.75GW,而进口部分将比现在增长五倍,达到6.6GW。

国有能源公司在私有化前需进行现代化改革

Bayraktar表示,土耳其正在改革能源市场,相关机构也将进行改革。


对于国有的土耳其输电公司(TEİAŞ)、石油管道公司(BOTAŞ)、石油公司(TPAO)、采矿和化工企业Eti Maden和发电公司(EÜAŞ),Bayraktar 认为不应马上开始私有化,而是需要优先进行现代化的管理改革,从而摆脱传统的公共管理逻辑。


此前他还表示,计划在2026年,在伊斯坦布尔能源交易所(EXIST,土耳其语为EPİAŞ)引入碳排放交易以及商品交易模式。

碳氢化合物产量持续强劲增长

Bayraktar说,目前加巴尔地区的石油日产量为5.1万桶,目标是10万桶。同时,黑海萨卡里亚海上天然气田的日产量为720万立方米,到2025年第一季度将增至910万立方米。


Bayraktar还表示,2024-2030年期间,在提升能效方面的公共和私人投资规模将达到200亿美元。


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Turkey plans 89 GW of new solar, wind power by 2035


Turkey launched an energy transformation roadmap worth USD 108 billion. The government aims to quadruple wind and solar power capacity to 120 GW by 2035. There are new rules for the upcoming round of YEKA auctions including a 20-year fixed price.


Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar said Turkey is facilitating an investment cycle of USD 80 billion by 2035 in renewable energy production. Together with the development of the transmission network, including for nuclear power, the figure reaches USD 108 billion.


The ministry estimates gross electricity consumption will amount to 510.5 TWh in 2035, compared to 335.2 TWh last year. The idea behind the new energy transformation roadmap is to pave the way for Turkey to become a net power exporter in 30 years.


Government hikes 2035 target by 20 GW


Turkey had 12.4 GW in wind power installed in September, together with 18.7 GW in photovoltaics, Bayraktar said at the presentation. He revealed that the goal for 2035 is almost four times higher, at 120 GW in total. It includes 5 GW of offshore wind power.

The government boosted the target by a stunning 20 GW. Data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) show that all other Southeastern Europe including Cyprus had an overall 15 GW in solar power and 11.3 GW of wind. Greece accounted for 7 GW and 5.2 GW, respectively.


Just since then, wind power capacity in Turkey grew by 1.1 GW and solar systems surged by 7 GW!


The country’s total renewable electricity fleet, according to the last update, is at 67.4 GW or 59% of the entire capacity. The biggest item is hydropower, 32.2 GW.


Almost half of capacity of projects under development include energy storage


Projects are underway for solar power plants with a total capacity of 43.5 GW and 26.1 GW in wind farms, the ministry said. Breaking down the total 69.6 GW, it added that facilities of 33.9 GW overall would be combined with energy storage units.


There is 23.5 GW in the so-called unlicensed segment – for self-consumption, while 3 GW has been allocated through auctions. The remaining 9.2 GW is through other kinds of permits.


Bayraktar: Permitting is getting slashed to two years or less


Bayraktar laid out the changes to rules for wind and solar power auctions, but also for permitting for power plant projects. His ambition is to at least halve the time to process requests from the current four years. The presented measures include the possibility of urgent expropriation.


One of the novelties in the auctions is a minimum guaranteed price in the initial period for the winners. Namely, operators of wind parks and solar farms would sell their electricity in the open market for the first six and five years, respectively.


The next round of YEKA auctions is for 1.2 GW in wind power capacity and 800 MW in photovoltaics

The ministry is planning to hold the next wind power auction under the Renewable Energy Resources Area (YEKA) scheme, for 1.2 GW, on January 28, followed by one on February 4 for photovoltaic projects with a quota of 800 MW. The details and deadlines are due at the beginning of next week and on November 4, respectively.


More importantly, the fixed price guarantee is planned to be doubled to 20 years. The new model for the one-sided contract for difference (CfD) is exceptionally significant for financing. Moreover, it would include an exemption from the transmission fee and a price based on a foreign exchange rate formula.


Turkey has formidable manufacturing base for green energy transition


Turkey is maintaining the requirement for a high share of locally produced equipment and workforce participation. The ministry said there are 150 equipment producers and 350 suppliers in the country, employing 50,000 people.

They make generators, turbines and power electronics for biomass, hydropower and biomass units, as well as wind turbines, towers and blades. Solar module production involves everything starting from ingots.


Import transmission capacity needs to be five times stronger


“We need to increase the interconnection capacity with neighbors by three to four times,” Bayraktar stressed. High-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines of 14,700 kilometers will be installed by 2035, he said.

The ministry specified that the power line length is planned for a 26.6% expansion to 95,500 kilometers. The system would have 942 switchyards, compared to the current 798 facilities. Interconnection capacity for exports is envisaged to grow threefold to 6.75 GW in 11 years while the import segment is seen five times stronger than now, at 6.6 GW, according to the roadmap.


State-owned energy companies require modern setup before privatization


Turkey is reforming the energy market, and institutions will undergo a makeover, too, the minister announced. “Let’s not start a privatization story right away,” he said of state-owned Turkish Electricity Transmission Corp. – TEİAŞ, Petroleum Pipeline Corp. – BOTAŞ, oil company TPAO, mining and chemicals enterprise Eti Maden and Electricity Generation Corp. – EÜAŞ.

“We need to take these companies out of the classical public management logic,” Bayraktar pointed out, arguing they need a modern approach.


Earlier, he expressed the ambition to introduce carbon emissions trading by 2026 at the Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST or, in Turkish, EPİAŞ) as well as commodity trading.


Hydrocarbon production continuing strong rise


The production of oil in the Gabar area is now at 51,000 barrels per day, Bayraktar said. The target is 100,000 barrels, in his words. The Sakarya offshore gas field on the Black Sea is at 7.2 million cubic meters per day and it will grow to 9.1 million by the first quarter of 2025, the minister asserted.


At the renewables roadmap event, Bayraktar also said public and private investments in energy efficiency in the period 2024-2030 would reach USD 20 billion.


本文 2024 年 10 月 26 日发布于Balkan Green Energy News。文章仅代表作者观点,不代表本公众号立场。

封面图源:unsplah

翻译 审校/韩迪 吕雅宁     编辑/包林洁

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