印尼宣布15年内退煤,技术、融资和法律的三重障碍如何破?

文摘   2024-11-27 19:14   北京  


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在刚刚落幕的G20峰会上,印尼宣布将在15年内淘汰所有煤电和化石燃料发电厂,同时将增加超过75GW的可再生能源装机容量。这一全球最大的煤炭出口国和消费国,此前曾计划到2055年关闭所有燃煤电厂,新承诺将这一时间提前了15年


本篇文章来自洛伊研究所 (Lowy Institute),以印尼退役Cirebon-1号燃煤电厂为例,揭示转型雄心背后的现实困境——印尼退煤在技术、融资和法律层面的阻碍,并探讨破局之道。

2022年的G20峰会标志着印尼能源转型的一个转折点——印尼签署了探讨提前退役Cirebon-1电厂的协议。这座装机容量为660MW的电厂是印尼第一座由独立发电商——Cirebon电力公司 (Cirebon Electric Power,CEP) 拥有的燃煤电厂,具有历史意义。因此,该协议的签署备受世界赞誉,这标志着印尼在逐步淘汰对煤炭的依赖方面,迈出了决定性的第一步。


一年后的COP28上,亚洲开发银行 (ADB)、Cirebon电力公司、印尼投资局 (INA) 和国有电力公司PLN签署了后续协议,承诺有条件地缩短Cirebon-1电厂的购电协议,到2035年12月终止其电力供应,比原定2042年7月终止的日期提前了六年半。


然而,最初定于2024年年中完成的下一步交易却遭遇了延误。随着英国近期关闭了最后一座煤电厂,并在全球气候谈判中寻求进一步进展,全球退煤的势头和紧迫性越发凸显。在此背景之下,印尼亟需解决其在技术、融资和法律方面的挑战,它们已成为印尼实现退煤的阻碍。


技术挑战:保障电网的稳定性

由于Cirebon-1号机组馈入PLN控制的输电网,其退役将对电网稳定性产生影响。PLN要求电网预留30%的备用容量,因此PLN计划发展可再生能源,以替代因关闭Cirebon-1号电厂而损失的电力,同时投资储能和智能电网技术,以确保平稳接入,避免停电或中断事故的发生。


鉴于印度尼西亚的能源转型目标,投资储能和电网技术也是PLN必须要做的事情。Cirebon-1号电厂的关闭成为推动该系统升级的催化剂,这也引出了融资作为第二个关键方面的问题。


资金挑战:

关键基础设施的投资,不应被视为国家损失

Cirebon-1号电厂的提前退役采用了再融资模式,即亚洲开发银行 (ADB) 预先向现有债权人付款,并以较低的利率和较短的期限成为新的贷款方。该模式的创新之处在于,债务人必须同意在偿还债务和投资回报后停止运营。清偿Cirebon-1号电厂的再融资方案估计为2.3亿至3亿美元,其中包括一部分用于弥补股东未来分红的损失。


除了计划涵盖的Cirebon-1号电厂提前退役外,PLN还需要13亿美元的基础设施投资用于系统升级,以适应可再生能源并入电网的需要,确保电网的长期稳定。这一数字通常被认为是关闭发电厂的成本,高昂的花费可能导致国家损失。


然而,需要注意的是,电网优化的工作已经逾期,需要优先考虑以实现能源转型。而对印尼经济竞争力和可持续性至关重要的基础设施投资,不应被预先定性为国家损失。像越南、马来西亚和菲律宾等正在推进将可再生能源纳入其能源组合的国家,已在电网优化方面投入了大量资金。这也正是印度尼西亚能源转型机制 (ETM) 作为混合融资机制应发挥作用的地方——调动各种公共和私人、国际和国内的多种资金来源。


法律挑战: 

Cirebon-1号电厂视为国家战略的一部分

Cirebon-1号电厂退役面临的监管问题之一是:13亿美元的系统成本是否可归为第112/2022号总统条例规定的“允许成本” (allowable costs)。如果承认这些费用是战略投资,是“可允许的”,将有助于减轻PLN的压力,并确保其不会被视为国家损失。


鉴于关闭煤电厂是国家的优先事项,财政部、能源和矿产资源部 (MEMR) 和国有企业部 (Ministry of State-owned Enterprises) 应向PLN发布书面指示以推进投资。能源和矿产资源部还应制定提前退役路线图,使这一进程正规化,而PLN则应将提前退役纳入其《电力供应业务计划》(RUPTL),确保将关闭Cirebon-1号电厂纳入更广泛的国家战略。


法律保障同样紧要。这包括纳入不可抗力条款以应对不可预见的情况,承认合同中的社会责任义务,如支付遣散费、对电厂工人进行技能提升和再培训,以及关注对周边社区的社会经济影响。


迅速解决这些关键问题,对于确保Cirebon-1提前退役的财务可持续性至关重要。


全世界都在密切关注着Cirebon-1号电厂最后一束火焰的熄灭。对此,政策制定者必须采取果断行动,投资者必须作出承诺,公民必须要求政府履行责任,确保Cirebon-1号电厂的提前退役成为现实——从雄心勃勃的言辞转变为具体的行动。



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Cutting coal power: Indonesia’s test case for turning a climate pledge into reality


The technical, financial and legal hurdles to get an Indonesian coal-fired power plant off the grid.

The 2022 G20 Summit marked a turning point for Indonesia’s energy transition with the signing of an agreement to explore the early retirement of Cirebon-1 coal-fired power plant. The 660-megawatt Cirebon-1 is historic for being the first coal-fired power plant in Indonesia owned by an independent power producer, Cirebon Electric Power (CEP). The agreement signing was therefore celebrated on a global stage as it signalled Indonesia’s first decisive move towards phasing out its reliance on coal.

A year later at COP28, a follow-up agreement was signed in which the Asian Development Bank (ADB), CEP, Indonesian Investment Authority (INA), and state-owned electricity company PLN conditionally committed to shortening the power purchase agreement of Cirebon-1, terminating its electricity supply by December 2035, six-and-a-half years ahead of its original closure month of July 2042.

However, the next step to finalise this transaction, initially set to be realised by mid-2024, has faced delays.

With the UK recently shutting down its last coal-fired power plant and hopes to build on climate negotiations globally, the momentum and urgency to demonstrate real progress is clear. This highlights the need to address ongoing technical, financial and legal challenges that have formed a stumbling block in finalising the transaction.

Technical: Grid stability to support energy transition

As Cirebon-1 feeds into a transmission grid controlled by PLN, its retirement will have implications on the grid stability. PLN is bound by a requirement for the grid to preserve 30% reserve margin – a safety buffer that helps absorb demand changes. To avoid losing reserve margin, PLN is expected to add various renewable energy sources into the grid to replace power lost from Cirebon-1’s closure and invest in energy storage and smart grid technology to ensure smooth integration without blackouts or disruptions.

However, given Indonesia’s energy transition targets, investing in energy storage and smart grid technology is something PLN needs to do irrespective of Cirebon-1’s closure. The closure serves as a catalyst for the much-needed system upgrades, which brings us to financing as the second key aspect.

Financial: Key infrastructure investment, not state loss

Cirebon-1’s early retirement uses a refinancing model where ADB pre-pays existing creditors and becomes the new lender at a lower interest rate and shorter tenor. This is a common business-to-business refinancing scheme, with the added innovation that debtor must agree to shutting down operations after debt repayment and return on investment. The refinancing package to retire Cirebon-1 is estimated at US$230-300 million, including a portion for shareholders’ loss of future dividends.

Apart from Cirebon-1’s early retirement covered by the scheme, PLN requires an infrastructure investment of US$1.3 billion for system upgrades to accommodate renewable energy integration into the grid, and ensure long-term grid stability. This number is often characterised as the prohibitive cost of plant closure which may lead to state losses.

However, it is important to note that grid optimisation is overdue and needs to be prioritised for a successful energy transition. Infrastructure investments that are important for Indonesia’s economic competitiveness and sustainability should not be pre-characterised as state loss. Countries that are moving ahead with adding renewables into their energy portfolio, such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, have placed significant investments in grid optimisation.

This is where Indonesia ETM Country Platform should serve its purpose as a blended finance mechanism to mobilise various public and private, international and domestic financing sources. It needs to prove that it can accelerate a just and affordable energy transition, including key infrastructure investments needed to achieve it.

Legal: Acknowledging Cirebon-1 transaction as part of broader national strategy

One of the regulatory issues pertains to whether the US$1.3 billion systems cost can be classified as “allowable costs” under Presidential Regulation 112/2022. Recognising these costs as strategic investments and therefore “allowable” would alleviate pressure on PLN and ensure that it will not be viewed as state loss.

The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Energy (MEMR), and Ministry of State-owned Enterprises should issue written instruction for PLN to proceed with the investment given its national priority. MEMR should also establish an Early Retirement Roadmap to formalise the process, while PLN should integrate early retirement into its Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL), ensuring the inclusion of Cirebon-1 closure into a broader national strategy.

Legal safeguards are equally critical. This includes incorporating force majeure clauses to address unforeseen circumstances, acknowledging contractual social obligations, such as severance pays, upskilling and reskilling of the plant’s workers, and the socioeconomic impacts on the surrounding community.

Promptly addressing these key issues will be vital to charting financially sustainable path forward for Cirebon-1’s early retirement.

As the last flames of Cirebon-1 flicker, the world watches closely. Indonesia can’t afford to let this momentum slip as its reputation and economic competitiveness are at stake. Policymakers must act decisively, investors must commit, and citizens must hold the government accountable to ensure Cirebon-1’s early retirement becomes a reality – shifting from ambitious rhetoric to concrete action.



本文 2024 年 11 月 25 日发布于The Lowy Institute。文章仅代表作者观点,不代表本公众号立场。

封面图源:The Lowy Institute

翻译 审校/韩迪 吕雅宁     编辑/包林洁

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