最新研报显示:清洁能源转型可为美国带来巨大经济效益

文摘   2024-08-21 10:34   山东  
独立的非银行金融服务公司Siebert Williams Shank(SWS)的一项新财务分析发现,清洁能源转型预计的基础设施成本虽然很高,但却是一项值得的投资,可为美国带来巨大的经济效益。这份长达112页的研究报告估计,在未来30-50年内,转型所需的电力基础设施成本约为10万亿美元,但每年的净经济效益可能超过2.3万亿美元。

报告指出:“清洁能源转型为美国和全球创造就业机会和实现更广泛的繁荣带来机遇。”参与完成报告的分析师在“与SWS对话” 的播客中也表达了同样的观点,并揭示了研究结果背后的原理。
图:未来的电力需求/增长量(太瓦时)

根据报告,美国电力基础设施的转型成本估计为10万亿美元,平均分摊到未来30年,相当于每年约3310亿美元。这一投资水平仅占2023年年度GDP的0.8%左右。假设2053年前美国经济的年均增速为2.1%,GDP占比将下降至约0.4%左右。

报告称:“当然,几十年间,年均0.5%的GDP占比对于如此重要的经济转型而言,并不过分。”

SWS的这份报告在两个方面具有独特性。首先,大多数此类报告侧重于转型过程中所有行业的总成本,而SWS的分析则更具体地分解了转型对电力行业的影响。报告对公用事业和运输行业进行研究,这两个行业的碳排放量合计占到美国碳排放量的65%。

其次,报告关注的是经济而非气候变化。媒体对清洁能源转型的讨论通常是关于其在应对全球变暖所发挥的作用。除此之外,很少有人讨论转型的经济后果。

“我们的分析表明,清洁能源转型是从经济角度看同样值得努力的行动。无需气候视角或政府立场的加持,”报告称,“虽然转型最初旨在应对气候变化,但我们相信,它现在已经成为一场经济革命,将带来全民支持的国家繁荣。”

SWS的分析师认为,清洁能源转型在很大程度上可以在没有大规模的政府激励计划、碳排放限制/碳税,甚至无需绿色新政的情况下实现。未来几十年预计的电力需求/使用量将增长200%,除了少数特定的转型技术之外,经济转型总体上应该能够通过这种增长获得所需的资金。

报告指出,未来30年,由于电动汽车的普及、一般工业电气化、人工智能、数字化增长和一般经济增长趋势,美国的电力需求可能出现惊人的增长。

目前,大多数公用事业公司报告称,大幅增长来自于大型新数据中心、新半导体制造以及相关的商业活动。事实证明,电动汽车的推广将在未来几十年内对电力使用/需求的增长做出更大贡献。

报告估计,仅电力和交通行业的转型每年就可为美国净节省数万亿美元。此外,由于日常驾驶、电力生产、配送和运输的过程削减了化石燃料成本,人均每年将净节省5000-7000美元。此外,通过大幅降低医疗保健的花费,减少水污染及其处理成本,降低复杂设备、车辆和家装等的损耗,也可减少许多无形的外部成本。

SWS分析师认为,分阶段的清洁能源转型需要几十年才能完全实现。过分关注2050年——政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出的实现零净排放的目标——会适得其反,不仅因为这不现实,还因其会导致怀疑论者忽视急需的碳减排努力。

为了加快转型,美国需要更有建设性的讨论、更好的消费者教育,以及对法律、立法和监管政策的修订,以消除转型面临的挑战,使转型成为可能,并获得公众的进一步支持。

 “我们认为,政府补贴并非必不可少。”报告说,“而是需要程序和政策层面的改革,而这些通常不需要额外的费用。”


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New Financial Analysis Finds Significant Economic Benefits from Clean Energy Transition


NEW YORK, Aug. 05, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --  A new financial analysis by Siebert Williams Shank (SWS) finds that the projected infrastructure cost of the clean energy transition, while substantial, will be a worthwhile investment that could yield enormous economic benefits in the United States.


The 112-page study estimates that while the electric infrastructure costs of the transition are about $10 trillion over the next 30-50 years, the net financial benefits to the U.S. economy could ultimately exceed $2.3 trillion annually.


“The clean energy transition translates into an opportunity for a step change in job creation and broader prosperity in the U.S. and globally,” the SWS report states.


Analysts behind the report echoed that sentiment in a recent “In Conversation with SWS” podcast, in which they dive deeper into the findings’ underlying mechanics.


According to the report, the $10 trillion transition cost estimate for just U.S. electricity infrastructure equates to an average of about $331 billion annually for the prospective 30 years. That level of electricity infrastructure investment for the industry reflects only about 0.8% of 2023 annual GDP with a declining proportion to about a 0.4% share as the economy presumably grows about a modest 2.1% annually through 2053.


“Certainly an average of about 0.5% of annual GDP over a number decades is not too big of an ask for such an important economic transformation,” the report says.


SWS’s clean energy transition report is relatively unique in two ways. First, while most such reports focus on the aggregate costs for all sectors in the transition, the SWS analysis breaks down the transition’s implications for the electricity industries more specifically. The report examines two sectors: utilities and transportation, which collectively represent about 65% of U.S. carbon emissions.


Second, the report focuses on economics rather than climate change. Discussion in the media typically frames the clean energy transition as a debate about its effectiveness in combating global warming. Rarely is there deliberation over the full economic consequences of the proposed transition other than a potential reduction in carbon emissions for the environment.


“Our analysis tells us that the clean energy transition is a worthy economic endeavor. No climate or government ideology is required,” the report says.


It continues, “While the transition began as a solution to the climate change problem, we believe that it now stands on its own as an economic revolution that will lead to a great flourishing of the nation that all of America can support.”


SWS analysts assert that the clean energy transition can largely be achieved without massive government incentive programs, carbon limits/taxes, or even a Green New Deal.


The economic transformation should be effectively self-funding in the aggregate due to the 200% electricity demand/usage growth expected over the next few decades with a few specific transition technology exceptions, in the analysts’ opinion.


According to the report, the increase in U.S. electricity demand is potentially a staggering amount over the next 30 years due to EV adoption, general industry electrification, AI, digital growth, and general economic growth trends.


Most utilities today report that the significant growth is coming from large new data centers, new semiconductor manufacturing, and associated business activity. EV adoption will prove to be an even larger contributor to electricity usage/demand growth in the coming decades.


The report’s estimates suggest a net annual savings in the trillions of dollars to the U.S. economy from just a transition in the electricity and transportation industries alone. Moreover, the transition could yield per capita net savings of $5,000-$7,000 annually, owing largely to avoided fossil fuel costs in daily driving, electricity production, and delivering household goods.


Further less tangible externality costs are avoided in substantially lower health care costs, reduced water pollution and its costs, reduced wear-and-tear on more complex equipment, and from corrosion, vehicle and home paint, etc.


SWS analysts believe the phased clean energy transition will take multiple decades to fully achieve. In their view, focusing excessively on the 2050 date - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s target to reach zero net emissions - is counterproductive not just because it is unrealistic, but also because it leads skeptics to disregard carbon reduction efforts that are urgently needed.


To accelerate the transition, the U.S. needs more constructive discourse, better consumer education, and revised legal, legislative, and regulatory policies that will remove challenges to the transition, enable the transition, and develop further support from the general public.


“We believe that government subsidies are not essential,” the report says. “Most of what we need is procedural and policy reform that is essentially free.”



本文 2024 年 8 月 5 日发布于Globe News Wire。文章仅代表作者观点,不代表本公众号立场。

封面图源:Balkan Green Energy News

翻译 审校/韩迪  汪燕辉      编辑/包林洁

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