阿尔及利亚何以成为欧洲气源新腹地?

文摘   2024-11-01 19:18   北京  



阿尔及利亚长期以来以其丰富的碳氢化合物资源而闻名于世,这些资源是石油和天然气的主要成分。如今,阿尔及利亚正走在一条双轨之路上:保持其作为欧洲主要天然气供应国的同时,迅速推动其能源转型。


如今,全球脱碳化趋势加快,尤其是乌克兰危机之后,欧洲断绝了俄罗斯的天然气供应,这些转变让阿尔及利亚处于能源领域的关键位置。这个北非国家的新政策、战略和财政框架正在重塑其能源行业,开启建立国际合作伙伴关系和促进长期投资的新机遇,并为其在可再生能源和绿色氢能领域发挥日益重要的作用奠定基础。

阿尔及利亚能源格局转型的核心是2019年12月出台的修订版《碳氢化合物法》 (第13-19号法)。该法律框架显著改善了吸引外资的条件,解决了阿尔及利亚能源行业长期存在的僵化问题。法案旨在通过更优惠的财政条款、简化的程序和更注重合作的方式,推动该国的资源勘探和开发,尤其是非常规资源的开发。


在国家能源管理机构Alnaft的监督下,阿尔及利亚启动了“阿尔及利亚2024年竞标回合”(Algeria Bid Round 2024),涉及六个关键地点的新油气资源,包括M'Zaid、Ahara和Reggane 2。这一轮竞标释放出一个明确的信号,即阿尔及利亚在迎接能源转型的同时,不会放弃发展传统能源行业。


近来,阿尔及利亚与埃克森美孚和雪佛龙等主要国际公司签署谅解备忘录(MOUs),反映了该国对包括页岩气和致密气在内的丰富的非常规天然气储量的重新关注。在阿尔及利亚的Ahnet和Gourara等盆地,其拥有的数千万亿立方英尺的非常规天然气储量有待勘探,该国正将自己定位为全球市场急需的天然气重要供应国。


对氢气走廊SoutH2 Corridor的承诺

阿尔及利亚能源转型战略最雄心勃勃的内容之一是发展SoutH2 Corridor,该氢气走廊旨在向欧洲供应绿氢。最近,阿尔及利亚国家石油公司Sonatrach、阿尔及利亚电力公司Sonelgaz与包括 VNG、Snam、Seacorridor 和 Verbund Green Hydroge在内的欧洲财团伙伴签署了谅解备忘录(MOU),此举凸显了阿尔及利亚对满足全球低碳能源需求的承诺。


这份谅解备忘录旨在探索大规模氢气生产的可行性,以及向急于实现能源多样化的欧洲出口的可能性。鉴于阿尔及利亚毗邻欧洲,并具备可再生能源潜力,该国完全有能力成为新兴氢经济的领导者。这项协议不仅加强了阿尔及利亚与欧洲的联系,还凸显了绿氢有潜力成为其未来经济的支柱。


然而,挑战依然存在。欧洲买家的长期承购承诺有限、氢需求预测呈下降趋势以及出口基础设施融资的不确定性,都构成了发展障碍。为了确保阿尔及利亚能够利用其氢能潜力,同时规避可能影响其能源转型的妨碍,这些问题亟待解决。

通过可再生能源实现多样化

阿尔及利亚推动可再生能源发展,不仅对其实现脱碳目标至关重要,也关系到保持其天然气出口能力。随着国内天然气消费量的增加,该国必须减少内部需求,才能维持出口量。为此,阿尔及利亚设定了到2030年可再生能源装机容量达到22GW的目标,重点是太阳能光伏发电(13.5GW)、风力发电(5GW)、聚光太阳能热发电(2GW)和生物质能发电(1GW)。


这些目标雄心勃勃且切实可行,这主要得益于阿尔及利亚拥有丰富的太阳能资源,以及能够通过国际伙伴关系获得专业的技术知识。然而,该国必须克服运输方面的挑战,包括需要对基础设施和电网现代化进行大量投资,以确保可再生能源项目成功实施并纳入国家能源结构。

需要克服的挑战

尽管人们对阿尔及利亚的能源转型持乐观态度,但仍存在一些障碍。虽然新的法律框架为外国投资者提供了激励措施,但开发非常规资源和可再生基础设施的高昂成本仍然令人担忧。此外,项目审批速度缓慢和运营方面的挑战可能会抑制投资者的热情,尤其是在竞争激烈的全球市场中。


阿尔及利亚雄心勃勃的氢能未来愿景,还将取决于欧洲对氢能作为关键能源的长期承诺。随着氢气需求预测的波动,以及欧盟自身内部生产能力的增长,这些因素都可能成为阿尔及利亚大规模出口绿氢的阻力。如果阿尔及利亚要实现其氢气出口目标,确保为出口基础设施(如管道和终端)提供足够的资金将至关重要。


阿尔及利亚能源行业的成功将取决于三个关键领域:公私合作伙伴关系、基础设施投资和监管效率。


加强Sonatrach、Sonelgaz和国际能源参与者之间的合作,对于推动氢气走廊SoutH2 Corridor和扩大可再生能源项目等至关重要。这种伙伴关系可以提供基础设施所需的技术专长和资金。其次,阿尔及利亚必须优先考虑对能源基础设施的大量投资,特别是电网和氢气出口设施,以确保可再生能源项目的成功整合,并实现绿色氢气向欧洲的输送。最后,通过简化审批流程和减少拖延来提高监管效率,这将为投资者创造更有利的环境,加快项目进度,并增强阿尔及利亚在全球能源市场的竞争力。


阿尔及利亚前景光明,但前路复杂。要在传统的碳氢化合物与新兴的低碳经济之间取得平衡,需要协同努力、强劲伙伴关系和大胆决策。凭借正确的战略,阿尔及利亚将确保其作为欧洲关键能源供应国和全球能源转型领导者的角色。


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Algeria’s Evolving Energy Strategy


Algeria, long renowned for its abundant hydrocarbon resources, is now navigating a dual path: sustaining its role as a key natural gas supplier to Europe while rapidly accelerating its energy transition ambitions. The global shift toward decarbonization, exacerbated by Europe’s desire to diversify energy sources in response to the Ukraine invasion and its subsequent disconnection from Russian gas, has placed Algeria in a critical position. The North African country’s new policies, strategies and fiscal framework are reshaping its energy sector, opening doors for international partnerships and long-term investments, and setting the stage for its growing role in renewable energy and green hydrogen.

At the heart of Algeria’s energy landscape transformation is its revised hydrocarbon law (Law 13-19), introduced in December 2019. This legal framework offers significant improvements to attract foreign investors, addressing concerns over Algeria’s historically rigid energy sector. Through more favorable fiscal terms, simplified procedures and a greater emphasis on collaboration, the law seeks to enhance exploration and development, particularly for unconventional resources.

Under the oversight of state hydrocarbons regulator Alnaft, Algeria has launched the Algeria Bid Round 2024, an initiative that aims to unlock new oil and gas potential in six key sites, including M'Zaid, Ahara and Reggane 2. The round is a clear signal that Algeria is not abandoning its traditional energy sector, even as it embraces the energy transition. The country’s renewed focus on its vast unconventional gas reserves, including shale and tight gas, is reflected in the recent memorandums of understanding (MOUs) signed with major international players such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron. With hundreds of trillions of cubic feet of unconventional gas reserves awaiting exploration in basins like Ahnet and Gourara, Algeria is positioning itself as a critical supplier of much-needed gas to the global market.

The Promise of the SoutH2 Corridor

One of the most ambitious elements of Algeria’s energy transition strategy is the development of the SoutH2 Corridor, aimed at supplying Europe with green hydrogen. The recent MOU signed between Sonatrach, Sonelgaz and a consortium of European partners, including VNG, Snam, Seacorridor and Verbund Green Hydrogen, underlines Algeria’s commitment to tapping into the global demand for low-carbon energy.

This MOU seeks to explore the viability of large-scale hydrogen production and its export to Europe, a market eager to diversify its energy sources. Given Algeria’s geographical proximity to Europe, coupled with its renewable energy potential, the country is well situated to become a leader in the emerging hydrogen economy. The agreement not only strengthens Algeria’s ties to Europe but also underscores the potential for green hydrogen to become a pillar of its future economy.

However, challenges remain. Limited long-term offtake commitments from European buyers, declining hydrogen demand forecasts and uncertainty around the financing of export infrastructure pose significant hurdles. These concerns need to be addressed to ensure that Algeria can capitalize on its hydrogen potential, while avoiding pitfalls that could derail its energy transition efforts.

Diversifying Through Renewables

Algeria’s push for renewable energy is critical not just for its decarbonization goals but also for maintaining its gas export capacity. With domestic gas consumption rising, the country must reduce internal demand if it is to sustain its export volumes. To that end, Algeria has set a target of 22 gigawatts of renewable capacity by 2030, focusing on solar photovoltaic (13.5 GW), wind (5 GW), concentrated solar power (2 GW) and biomass (1 GW).

These targets are ambitious but achievable, given Algeria’s vast solar resources and the technical expertise that can be leveraged through international partnerships. However, the country must navigate logistical challenges, including the need for significant investments in infrastructure and grid modernization, to ensure that renewable energy projects are successfully implemented and integrated into the national energy mix.

Challenges to Overcome

Despite the optimism surrounding Algeria’s energy transition, several obstacles could impede progress. While the new legal framework offers incentives to foreign investors, the high costs associated with developing unconventional resources and renewable infrastructure remain a concern. Moreover, the slow pace of project approvals and operational challenges could dampen investor enthusiasm, especially in a highly competitive global market.

The future of Algeria’s hydrogen ambitions will also depend on Europe’s long-term commitment to hydrogen as a key energy source. With hydrogen uptake forecasts fluctuating, and the EU’s own internal production capacities growing, Algeria’s hopes of exporting green hydrogen at scale may face headwinds. Securing adequate funding for export infrastructure, such as pipelines and terminals, will be crucial if Algeria is to realize its hydrogen export ambitions.

A successful path forward for Algeria's energy sector will depend on three key areas: public-private partnerships, infrastructure investment and regulatory efficiency. Strengthening collaboration between Sonatrach, Sonelgaz and international energy players is essential to driving major initiatives like the SoutH2 Corridor and scaling renewable energy projects. Such partnerships can provide the technical expertise and capital needed to overcome infrastructure challenges. Secondly, Algeria must prioritize substantial investments in energy infrastructure, particularly in its grid and hydrogen export facilities, to ensure the successful integration of renewable projects and enable the transport of green hydrogen to Europe. Finally, improving regulatory efficiency by streamlining approval processes and reducing bureaucratic delays will foster a more favorable environment for investors, accelerating project timelines and enhancing Algeria’s competitiveness in the global energy market.

Algeria’s future is bright, but the road ahead is complex. Balancing traditional hydrocarbons with the emerging low-carbon economy will require coordinated efforts, strong partnerships and bold decision-making. With the right strategies in place, Algeria can secure its role as a pivotal energy supplier for Europe and a leader in the global energy transition.




本文 2024 年 10 月 28 日发布于Energy Intel。文章仅代表作者观点,不代表本公众号立场。

封面图源:Misread/Shutterstock

翻译 审校/韩迪 吕雅宁     编辑/包林洁

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