印尼拟议“隔墙售电”,将带来哪些影响?

文摘   2024-10-24 08:13   越南  


前  言


允许私营企业通过印尼国家电力公司(PLN)的电网直接向消费者出售清洁电力,有助于印尼在不增加国家预算负担的情况下实现能源转型目标,并让国有电力公司专注于电网现代化。

2024年7月3日,越南颁布了关于可再生能源的直接购电协议(DPPAs)法令,允许私人项目开发商与消费者之间进行可再生能源交易。此举意味着越南将允许可再生能源发电商利用其输电设施或通过国有公用事业电网,向企业消费者出售电力。其他立法同时鼓励更多投资机会和数据中心的发展。作为回应,阿里巴巴、AWS 和谷歌等公司计划在越南探索商业机会,这有望助推该国可再生能源的快速增长。


2024年7月26日,马来西亚推出了企业可再生能源供应计划(CRESS),旨在通过开放式电网系统,允许第三方通过现有电网网络供应或购买电力,从而提高企业获得绿色电力的机会。此后,谷歌和甲骨文(Oracle)宣布将在马来西亚投资,预计到2030年将为该国经济贡献超过95亿美元。


印度尼西亚意图加快可再生能源转型

印度尼西亚是东南亚人口最多的国家,其太阳能潜力位列该地区第三,具备成为可再生能源领域领军者的能力。然而,与邻国相比,印尼的可再生能源发展可谓停滞不前。这一情况主要归因于印尼国有电力公司PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara(PLN)面临的财务困境。PLN是可再生能源的主要开发商,但多项监管挑战也削弱了该国可再生能源行业的投资吸引力。


为了加快能源转型,印尼政府(GOI)计划在其可再生能源法案草案中引入“隔墙售电”机制(power wheeling),以扩大清洁能源的开放市场。机制允许私营公司或独立电力生产商(IPPs)通过PLN 拥有的输电系统,直接向客户销售可再生能源电力。鉴于PLN在部署大规模可再生能源方面进展缓慢,私营开发商和工业消费者可以帮助填补这一空白。


印尼“隔墙售电”机制得到了全球430多家大型企业的支持,且这些企业都是RE100的成员。RE100 是一项全球倡议,成员企业致力于到2030年实现60%可再生能源电力使用,并在2050年前实现100%可再生能源电力。


RE100中有121家成员企业在印尼开展业务。然而,目前的可再生能源解决方案不足以为这些公司的设施和业务提供电力,从而阻碍了他们实现RE100承诺和企业可持续发展目标。


因此,将“隔墙售电”机制纳入法案不仅有助于增加印尼作为投资目的地的吸引力,还能加快该国可再生能源的发展。

“隔墙售电”机制将推动印尼

部署可再生能源并为PLN增收

尽管印尼承诺在2025年使可再生能源电力在其电力结构中的占比达到23%,但这一比例在2023年仅为13.1%。“隔墙售电”可以提高私营部门直接交易的灵活性,加速大规模可再生能源的部署,帮助印尼实现其可再生能源目标。


PLN也将从中受益,该机制有助于PLN维持电力供应,尤其是爪哇岛和巴厘岛以外地区的电力供应。此外,PLN还可以将其输电设施出租给私营电力公司,从中收取过网费,而增加收入来源。不过,过网费(wheeling charges)必须以公平透明的方式制定,避免定价过高,同时确保电力系统的完整性。这些条件对于吸引投资者,以及保护作为输电网络所有者的PLN都很重要。


全球企业和数据中心的投资潜力不断增加

印尼对化石燃料的严重依赖已成为全球企业投资的障碍,这些企业越来越注重使用清洁能源。2024年9月,印尼投资部长表示,特斯拉对投资印尼犹豫不决,原因正是印尼使用化石燃料能源。当前,全球对供应链碳排放强度的关注度日益增加,尤其是欧盟推行的碳边境调节机制(Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism)。


因此,减少印尼电网碳排放的紧迫性与日俱增,目前该国电网的度电碳排放量超过 682 克二氧化碳当量/千瓦时(gCO2e/kWh),是全球电网排放量最高的国家之一。


让“隔墙售电”机制成为专为可再生能源而设计的一种解决方案,可以吸引那些致力于实现100%清洁能源的全球企业和数据中心的新投资。


目前,全球数据中心的电力消耗约占总电力的1%至2%。2022年,数据中心的能耗为460太瓦时(TWh),比印尼的总体能耗高出45%。国际能源署(IEA)预计,到2026年,数据中心的电力需求将增加到全球电力的1.5%至3%。


新加坡等国已成为东南亚领先的数据中心枢纽。然而,新加坡市场面临诸多供应难题,包括新建数据中心的限制,可再生能源供应不足,运营成本较高等。因此,更多投资者将目光转投印尼等新兴市场。


谷歌的目标是到2030年实现所有运营和价值链的净零排放。微软也承诺到2030年实现碳负增长,同时到2050年,消除公司自1975年成立以来直接或通过电力消耗产生的碳排放。微软还宣布将在未来四年内投资17亿美元,在印尼新建云计算和人工智能(AI)基础设施。


因此,印尼需要供应大规模的清洁能源,为谷歌和微软等公司在新加坡以外国家和地区建立数据中心提供选择,以满足其全球可持续发展目标。


印尼的数字经济发展迅速,能够在扩建数据中心方面发挥重要作用。2022 年,印尼的数字经济商品交易总额达770亿美元,预计到2030年将增至2,200亿至3,600亿美元,成为东南亚最大的数字经济体。


“隔墙售电”机制有望吸引投资,促进经济增长,创造新的就业机会,并帮助印尼在不增加国家预算负担的情况下实现脱碳目标。该机制还将帮助PLN专注于电网的现代化和改进,以助力能源转型。


尽管“隔墙售电”机制得到了业界的广泛支持,但反对声音依然存在,特别是在印尼政府内部。人们担心电力供应过剩问题,以及PLN与IPPs之间的“照付不议”机制(take-or-pay scheme)会给电力公司带来巨大的财务风险。解决办法可能在于与IPPs的合同谈判、提高成本效益、低效燃煤电厂的退役以及正确的“隔墙售电”公式。


印尼在实现可再生能源目标上已经落后。可再生能源供应不足,使其错失了经济发展的黄金机遇,落后于邻国。然而,“隔墙售电”机制可以在平衡所有利益相关者的战略中发挥关键作用,推动印尼加快清洁能源的部署,并发掘重要的经济机遇。


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Power wheeling can drive corporate investments and advance Indonesia’s renewable energy goals


Allowing private firms to sell clean power directly to consumers via PLN’s networks could help the country meet its targets without burdening the national budget and to let the state-owned electricity utility focus on grid modernisation.


On 3 July 2024, Vietnam issued its direct power purchase agreements (DPPAs) decree for renewable energy between private project developers and consumers. This allows renewable energy generators to sell their power to corporate consumers, using their transmission facilities or via state-owned utility lines. Additional legislation encourages investment opportunities and data centre development. In response, companies like Alibaba, AWS, and Google plan to explore business opportunities, which could ignite rapid renewable energy growth.


On 26 July 2024, Malaysia introduced the Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme (CRESS) which aims to enhance corporate access to green electricity through open grid systems, allowing third parties to supply or purchase electricity through the existing grid network. Following this, Google and Oracle announced investments in Malaysia, which are expected to contribute over US$9.5 billion to the country’s economy by 2030.


Indonesia’s intention to accelerate the renewable energy transition


Indonesia, the most populous Southeast Asian country, is ranked third in the region for solar potential. It has the capacity to become the leader in the renewable energy sector. However, its renewable energy development can be considered stagnant compared to its neighbors. This is due to the challenging financial position of its national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), the primary developer of renewable energy, and several regulatory challenges that reduce the attractiveness of investing in this sector.


To accelerate the energy transition, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) intends to expand the open market for clean energy by proposing power wheeling in the draft of its renewable energy bill. A power wheeling mechanism allows private companies or Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to sell renewable electricity directly to customers through PLN-owned transmission systems. Given PLN’s delays in implementing utility-scale renewable energy, private developers and industrial consumers can help fill the gap.


The power wheeling mechanism has been pushed by over 430 large global businesses that are members of the RE100, a global initiative comprising companies committed to 60 per cent renewable electricity by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2050. RE100 has 121 members operating in Indonesia. However, these companies still have inadequate renewable energy solutions for powering their facilities and supply chains, thus impeding their ability to meet RE100 pledges and corporate sustainability mandates.


Including power wheeling in the bill could increase Indonesia’s attractiveness as an investment destination and simultaneously accelerate renewable energy development.


Power wheeling could boost renewable energy deployment and add to PLN’s revenue


Despite Indonesia’s commitment to reach a 23 per cent share of renewable energy in its electricity mix in 2025, the share in 2023 was only 13.1 per cent. Power wheeling can help the country achieve its renewable energy target by delivering the flexibility of direct transactions for the private sector, which is needed to accelerate the large-scale deployment of renewable energy.


PLN will also benefit from the power wheeling mechanism as it would help the utility maintain its electricity supply, especially outside Java and Bali Island. Additionally, the utility would gain another revenue stream by renting its transmission facilities to private electricity corporations through a wheeling charge. However, it is imperative that wheeling charges are developed in a fair and transparent manner to avoid excessive pricing while ensuring system integrity. Such conditions are important both for attracting investors and protecting PLN as the transmission network owner.


Increasing investment potential from global corporations and data centres


Indonesia’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels has become an obstacle to investments from global corporations that increasingly want clean energy. In September 2024, the Indonesian Minister of Investment stated that Tesla was hesitant to invest in the country because of Indonesia’s fossil fuel energy usage. The focus on the carbon emissions intensity of supply chains is increasing, most notably represented by Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. There is a growing urgency to reduce the carbon emissions of the Indonesian grid, currently at over 682 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour (gCO2e/kWh), making it one of the highest global emitters.


Power wheeling, reserved only for renewable energy, can be a solution to attract new investment from global corporations and data centres committed to achieving 100 per cent clean energy.


Currently, data centres worldwide utilise 1 to 2 per cent of total power. In 2022, the energy consumption of data centres was 460 terawatt-hours (TWh), 45 per cent higher than Indonesia as a whole. The IEA expects that data centre demand could increase to between 1.5 per cent and 3 per cent of global power by 2026.


Countries like Singapore have established themselves as leading data centre hubs in Southeast Asia. However, the Singapore market faces supply constraints with restrictions on constructing new data centres, limited renewable energy availability, and higher cost of operations. Therefore, investors are increasingly looking towards emerging markets like Indonesia.


Google aims to achieve net-zero emissions across all its operations and value chains by 2030. Microsoft has also committed to being carbon-negative by 2030. By 2050, it also aims to remove all carbon emitted by the company, either directly or by electricity consumption, since its founding in 1975. Microsoft announced that it will invest US$1.7 billion over the next four years in new cloud and Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure in Indonesia. Consequently, Indonesia needs to provide large-scale access to clean energy to offer companies like Google and Microsoft options to establish their data centres outside Singapore that meet their global sustainability goals.


Indonesia has a rapidly growing digital economy and can play a vital role in expanding data centres. Its digital economy had a gross merchandise value of US$77 billion in 2022 and is expected to increase to between US$220 and US$360 billion by 2030, making it the largest digital economy in Southeast Asia.


Power wheeling can boost economic growth through investments, create new jobs, and help Indonesia meet its decarbonization targets without burdening the national budget. It would also help PLN focus on grid modernisation and improvements to facilitate energy transition.


Despite broad industry support, opposition to the power wheeling scheme remains, particularly within the GOI, where internal disagreements persist. There are concerns about power oversupply and PLN’s take-or-pay scheme with IPPs, which poses significant financial risks to the utility. The solution could lie in contract negotiations with IPPs, cost efficiency, and the retirement of inefficient coal-fired power plants combined with the right power wheeling formula.


Indonesia is already behind on its renewable energy targets. The lack of renewable energy supply in the country creates risks of missing out on golden economic opportunities and falling behind its neighbors. Power wheeling can play a crucial role in a balanced strategy that accommodates all stakeholders, enabling Indonesia to accelerate clean energy deployment while tapping into significant economic opportunities.


本文 2024 年 10 月 8 日发布于Eco-Business。文章仅代表作者观点,不代表本公众号立场。

封面图源:Aditya Irawan / Getty Images

翻译 审校/韩迪 吕雅宁     编辑/包林洁

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