巴西为何能实现太阳能领域的指数级飞跃?

文摘   2024-06-21 17:41   北京  

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三年前,巴西还未跻身世界顶级太阳能生产国之列,但到2023年,巴西的排名已经上升到第六位。增长速度引人注目:2022年以来,巴西月均增加约1GW的太阳能发电能力。去年,巴西的太阳能超过风能,成为该国第二大电力来源。

在巴西开展工作的一家环境基金——气候与社会研究所(ICS)的能源和工业经理Roberto Kishinami表示,巴西经济低迷是导致这一增速没能更快的唯一原因。2019年至2022年,巴西GDP年均增长1.5%;到2023年,这一数字上升为2.9%。

图1 巴西太阳能装机容量逐年增长,势头强劲


巴西为何能实现太阳能领域的指数级飞跃?

专家们表示:这一转变不是一夜之间发生的,而是十年多国内能力建设的结果,公共激励措施的推行、生产成本的降低以及应对气候变化的雄心都推动了这一进程。

图2 巴西能源构成


政府激励措施

2023年,巴西政府宣布了一项新的“加速增长”计划,其中670亿巴西雷亚尔(125亿美元)将用于资助新的可再生能源项目。超过一半的资金(415亿巴西雷亚尔)将专用于建设196座太阳能发电厂。这一数额是过去二十多年来类似投资额的两倍。


巴西主要太阳能行业协会——Absolar的技术和监管总监Carlos Dornellas表示,过去十年中,政府通过拍卖活动推动太阳能发电厂的建设,提高集中式发电能力。同时,巴西的“分布式”发电于2012年获批,即在靠近电力消费的场所以较小规模供电。目前,这种形式占巴西太阳能的近70%,是太阳能发展的主要驱动力。


直到最近,巴西太阳能发电的个人用户还可以向国家电网出售余电。为了鼓励太阳能的发展,用户向电网注入的每一瓦电能都会在电费中得到全额补偿。然而,2022年1月生效的新法律框架减少了可出售给电网的分布式太阳能发电的比例。


Pereira认为,这一变化“引发了人们对(分布式发电)将失去经济吸引力的担忧,因此许多人急于投资”。然而,尽管出现了这些问题,“太阳能发电在巴西仍然具有吸引力。”


气候目标还是节约成本?

在COP28上,包括巴西在内的118个国家承诺到2030年将全球可再生能源提高两倍。提高全球应对气候变化的雄心,是太阳能发电兴起的原因之一,但Pereira认为,加速市场发展的主要因素是生产成本越来越低廉:“技术发展导致成本降低,有利于太阳能的推广”。这种成本缩减主要源自中国,目前,中国约占太阳能行业制造能力的80%。


近年来,巴西对太阳能电池板免征进口税,但这项补贴政策在今年被撤销,同时开始征收10.8%的税费。免税政策使从中国采购太阳能设备的成本低于从巴西国内采购,这使得巴西成为中国太阳能电池板的第二大进口国。Dornellas说,巴西几乎所有的光伏组件和逆变器(将太阳能转换为电子设备使用)都购自中国公司。


根据能源研究公司伍德麦肯兹(Wood Mackenzie)的分析,到2023年,中国太阳能电池板的生产成本将大幅下降42%,进口太阳能电池板的优势将更加明显。根据Portal Solar能源公司的调查,去年巴西市场上太阳能电池板的价格出现了类似的降幅。


另一方面,一些评论家认为,由于容易从中国获得设备,巴西太阳能制造业的发展遭到遏制。Dornellas说:“我们有意发展民族工业,但它不会在短时间内启动和运行。”今天,巴西拥有的仍然是质量较差、价格较高的产品。


中国在其中的角色

十多年前,中国将目光转向了可再生能源产业,应对空气污染是驱动因素之一。在政府支持和激励措施的推动下,中国的太阳能产业迅速发展,引领全球市场:截至2012年,中国生产的光伏电池已占全球太阳能电池板所用电池的40%。跟中国有密切贸易关系的拉美和加勒比海地区也是中国可再生能源产业重要的投资目的地。


应用经济研究所(Ipea)的研究员Marco Aurélio Mendonça说,中国针对拉美和加勒比地区的能源瓶颈即电力基础设施不足,进行投资,其中包括巴西。


2019年至2022年,中国公司在拉美运营或在建的太阳能项目容量从1.4GW增至4.9GW,增加了两倍多。同时,也对整个生产链进行投资。Dornellas说:天合光能(Trina Solar)和晶澳太阳能(JA Solar)进口并分销太阳能电池板和其他设备;中国三峡总公司(China Three Gorges Corporation)和中国核电集团(China General Nuclear Power Group)正在投资建设发电厂;电动汽车制造商比亚迪现在也在圣保罗州坎皮纳斯的工厂生产太阳能组件;国家电网将建设一条1513公里长的输电线路,以促进巴西东北部的可再生能源发展。


如今,东北部在巴西太阳能市场上处于领先地位。根据巴西国家电力能源局(Aneel)的数据,该地区的太阳能发电能力已超过全国系统授权发电总量的60%(不包括分布式发电)。Dornellas说,除了拥有有利的气候条件外,该地区各州还采取了税收相关的各种激励政策,从而在这场竞争中脱颖而出。


转型需要公平和包容

据巴西四个环保组织联合发起的“东北电力计划”(North-east Power Plan)估计,可再生能源可为该地区创造200万个新的就业机会,而该地区目前是巴西人均收入最低的地区。


该组织的政治组织者Fabiana Couto说:“可再生能源具有巨大的创收潜力。”但需要在培训方面进行投资,才能有效创收。并且,这些工作也应该由当地人来做。


Couto为合作社经营的分布式发电辩护。她认为分布式发电可以为社区带来收入,还可以解决偏远地区的配电瓶颈问题。但需要政府采取激励措施来推动,因为对于贫困人口来说,这些举措的成本仍然很高。


在帕拉伊巴州的一个偏远地区,Bem Viver合作社在非政府组织的支持下于2023年1月采用了太阳能发电。22名成员每人都能获得一定配额的电力,用于基本消费和家庭农业生产。


Couto认为,太阳能的推广需要更加民主。目前,许多社区被太阳能发电厂包围,却无法获取电力。“太阳能公园的理想形式是在太阳能发电厂周围安装分布式太阳能电池板。”


今年1月,一个由社区组织和协会组成的网络群体,他们因东北部土地受到了可再生能源发电厂影响,而呼吁实现更公平、更具包容性的能源转型。随附的一份文件《可再生能源的社会和环境保障措施》中列出了一百多种可实现这一目标的机制和保护措施。这些保障措施包括:事先与社区协商;生态经济分区,避免发电厂与保护区或传统社区重叠;以及更公平的公司租赁土地的标准。


Couto说:“为这些土地支付的金额是一个问题,合同是以非常不平等的方式签订的。”


安装太阳能设备也是解决亚马逊地区能源失衡的一个办法。据能源与环境研究所(Iema)估计,亚马逊法律管辖区(亚马逊盆地所包含的行政区域)有300万居民没有接入国家电力系统,约有100万人无法持续用电。其中许多人必须使用化石燃料,如柴油发电机来获取电力。


联邦“全民照明”(Light for All)计划于2023年8月重新启动,旨在为亚马孙法律管辖区内的22.6万个新消费单位提供服务,包括家庭、学校、医疗中心和社区中心等。Couto认为,分散式太阳能是最偏远地区最可行的选择,应被“全民照明”计划列为优先事项。2003年以来,该计划已投入240亿巴西雷亚尔,计划在2024年再投入25亿巴西雷亚尔。据Iema估计,在亚马逊法律管辖区,普及太阳能将需要380亿巴西雷亚尔。

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Solar power is booming in Brazil. Can it be a boom for all?


Solar is now Brazil’s second-largest source of electricity. Experts say its growth must also reach and respect communities cut off from the grid


Just three years ago, Brazil did not feature among the world’s top producers of solar energy, but by 2023 it had risen to sixth place in the rankings. The pace of growth has been notable: since 2022, the country has added, on average, roughly one gigawatt of solar capacity every month. Last year, solar overtook wind power to become the country’s second-largest source of electricity.


The only reason this pace has not been faster is Brazil’s sluggish economic performance, which has curbed energy demand, according to Roberto Kishinami, energy and industry manager for the Institute for Climate and Society (ICS), an environmental fund working in Brazil. Between 2019 and 2022, Brazil’s GDP grew by an annual average of 1.5%; in 2023, this figure was 2.9%. “When the sector was planned ten years ago, the expected rate was 3.5%,” he tells Dialogue Earth.


How did Brazil come to make this exponential leap in solar energy? As experts tell Dialogue Earth, this did not happen overnight: it has been the result of a decade of progress building domestic capacity, propelled by public incentives, a reduction in production costs and an expansion of ambition in meeting the challenge of climate change.


Abundant clean energy


Brazil has abundant and varied natural resources that place it in “a very advantageous position in the energy transition,” says Amaro Pereira, an energy planning professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.


For decades, the Brazilian electricity mix has been mostly clean in terms of its greenhouse gas emissions, given the country’s huge hydropower capacity. Renewable sources now account for 86.4% of its installed electricity capacity, with nearly half coming from hydroelectric plants.


Kishinami says this robust hydropower foundation acts like a “big battery” in the Brazilian electricity system, filling in the gaps created by other renewables, such as wind and solar, that fluctuate with the weather.


Although hydropower itself has felt impacts from extreme weather, with the country resorting to the use of thermoelectric plants during periods of severe drought, Brazil’s hydro-dominated electricity mix is nevertheless resilient enough to accommodate the variable nature of solar and wind power, says Pereira.


Government incentives


In 2023, the Brazilian government announced a new “growth acceleration” plan that included BRL 67 billion (USD 12.5 billion) to finance new renewable energy projects. More than half – BRL 41.5 billion – is earmarked for the construction of 196 solar power plants. This amount is double what has been invested in more than two decades under a programme with a similar purpose.


Carlos Dornellas, technical and regulatory director of Absolar, Brazil’s main solar industry association, tells Dialogue Earth that during the past decade, the government held auctions to boost centralised electricity generation through large solar plants, which became regulated in the 1990s.


Allied to this, in 2012 the country gave its authorisation for “distributed” generation – the production of energy on a smaller scale, close to the point of consumption. This format now accounts for almost 70% of solar energy in Brazil, and is the main driver of solar’s growth in the country.


Until recently, individual users of solar power could sell surplus energy generated to the national grid. To encourage solar development, every watt injected by the consumer to the grid was fully compensated in their electricity bills. However, the sector’s growth has necessitated a gradual reduction of these incentives: a new legal framework that came into force in January 2022 reduced the proportion of distributed solar generation that can be sold to the grid.


According to Pereira, this change “generated concern that [distributed energy] would lose its economic attractiveness, so many people rushed to invest”; those who had installed a distributed generation system by January 2023 did not have to follow the terms of the new legislation.


“In 2022, there was higher-than-normal growth [in the sector] because of this,” explains Pereira.


Despite these recent concerns, however, Pereira says that solar power remains attractive in the country – and urgent for the planet.


Climate targets or cost savings?


During last year’s COP28 climate change conference in Dubai, 118 countries, including Brazil, pledged to collectively triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030.


Global pressures to increase ambition for tackling climate change have contributed to the rise of solar power, but according to Pereira, the main factor accelerating the market is the increasing affordability of production: “Technological development has resulted in lower costs, and this favours the expansion of solar energy.”


This cost shrinkage has been brought about mainly by China, which accounts for around 80% of manufacturing capacity in the solar sector.


In recent years, solar panels have been exempted from import taxes in Brazil – a subsidy that was revoked this year, as a 10.8% tax was introduced. The exemption had helped to make solar equipment cheaper to source from China than domestically, and contributed to Brazil emerging as the second-largest importer of Chinese solar panels. Dornellas says almost all of Brazil’s photovoltaic modules and inverters (which convert solar energy for use in electronic devices) are bought from Chinese companies.


According to an analysis by the energy research company Wood Mackenzie, these imports became even more advantageous in 2023, when the cost of manufacturing solar panels in China plummeted by 42% amid production increases. As a result, the price of these panels on the Brazilian market fell by a similar amount last year, according to a survey by the Portal Solar energy company.


On the other hand, some commentators say that the ease of accessing Chinese equipment has presented a barrier to the development of solar manufacturing in Brazil. “There is an intention to develop a national industry, but it won’t be up and running in a short space of time,” says Dornellas. “Today, what we have in Brazil is still of lower quality and higher price.”


Chinese power boosts


Just over a decade ago, China turned its attention to the renewable industry with the aim, among others, of solving its air pollution crisis. Bolstered by government support and incentives, the country’s solar industry grew quickly to lead the global market: by 2012, it already produced 40% of the photovoltaic cells used in solar panels around the world. Latin America and the Caribbean, with which China already had strong trade ties, became important destinations for these investments.


Marco Aurélio Mendonça, a researcher at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea), says Chinese investments in Latin America and the Caribbean have been in line with energy bottlenecks in the region, with electricity infrastructure deficiencies plaguing the region, including in Brazil.


Between 2019 and 2022, the capacity of solar projects operated or under construction by Chinese companies in Latin America more than tripled, rising from 1.4 GW to 4.9 GW. Moreover, they are investing in the entire production chain, says Dornellas: Trina Solar and JA Solar import and distribute solar panels and other equipment; China Three Gorges Corporation and China General Nuclear Power Group are investing in the construction of power plants; the electric car manufacturer BYD now also produces solar modules at its factory in Campinas, São Paulo state; and State Grid will build a 1,513km transmission line to boost renewable energy in north-east Brazil.


Today, the north-east leads the country’s solar market. According to the Brazilian National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel), the region has accumulated more than 60% of the total power solar capacity that is authorised to operate in the national system (excluding distributed generation). As well as having favourable climatic conditions, the region has come out ahead in this race by adopting various incentive policies, mainly tax-related, in the region’s states, says Dornellas.      


Transition needs to be fair and inclusive


The North-east Power Plan, a joint initiative by four Brazilian environmental organisations, estimates that renewable energies could generate 2 million new jobs in the region, which currently has the lowest per capita income in the country.


“It has huge potential for generating income,” says Fabiana Couto, the group’s political organiser. “But we need to invest in training so that this income generation is effective.” The jobs should also be filled by local people, she stresses.


Couto defends distributed energy generation run by co-operatives. She says they can bring income to communities, as well as solving power distribution bottlenecks in remote locations. But she says government incentives are needed to boost these initiatives, which are still expensive for poor populations. 


In a remote area of the state of Paraíba, the Bem Viver Cooperative adopted solar generation in January 2023, with the support of non-governmental organisations. Each of the 22 members receives a quota of energy, used for both basic consumption and powering family farming operations. The system even supports the storage of rainwater that collects upon the rooftop solar panels.


The expansion of solar energy also needs to be more democratic, argues Couto. At the moment, there are many communities surrounded by solar power plants that do not have access to the energy they generate. The ideal format for solar parks, says the activist, would be to install distributed systems next to them to serve local populations as well.


In January, a broad network of community organisations and associations whose north-eastern lands have been impacted by renewable power plants called for a fairer and more inclusive energy transition. An accompanying document, “Social and Environmental Safeguards for Renewable Energy”, lists more than a hundred mechanisms and protection measures that could achieve this.


These safeguards include: prior consultation with communities; ecological-economic zoning, to avoid the overlap of power plants with protected areas or traditional communities; and fairer criteria for the leasing of land by companies.


“The amount paid for these lands is a problem in the contracts, which have been made in a very unequal way,” says Couto, whose organisation helped draft the document.


The installation of solar energy could also be a solution to tackle the energy imbalance in the Amazon region. The Energy and Environment Institute (Iema) estimates that 3 million residents of the Legal Amazon (the administrative region contained by the Amazon Basin) are not connected to the national electricity system, and around 1 million do not have access to continuous electricity. Many of these people must resort to the use of fossil fuels, such as diesel-powered generators.


The federal Light for All programme, relaunched in August 2023, aims to serve 226,000 new consumer units in the Legal Amazon – homes, schools, health centres and community centres, among others. According to Couto, decentralised solar energy is the most viable option for the most remote regions and should be prioritised by Light for All. Since 2003, BRL 24 billion has been invested into the programme, with a further BRL 2.5 billion planned for 2024.


In the Legal Amazon, universal access to solar energy will require up to BRL 38 billion, according to Iema estimates. “This will bring a return for human development in this region, promoting economic activities that serve as another option to predatory ones, such as mining and deforestation,” says Ricardo Baitelo, a project consultant for Iema.

文章内容于2024年6月14日发表于Dialogue.earth。文章仅代表作者观点,不代表本公众号立场。

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封面图源:Tony Winston / Agência Brasília, CC BY

翻译/韩迪   审校/汪燕辉 李鑫迪    排版/包林洁

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