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9月12日，在美国总统大选辩论之后，曾经参加过总统竞选的美国独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯在英国《卫报》撰文指出，全球都看到了哈里斯在辩论中一击制胜，但她仍需有清晰的蓝图，才能有较大优势获胜，毕竟，“我们必须面对一个重要的现实：绝大多数美国人民已经非常了解唐纳德·特朗普。”Kamala Harris was great in the debate. Will that be enough to win?
卡玛拉·哈里斯辩论出色。这足以让她获胜吗？With the whole world watching, Kamala Harris did an extremely effective job at Tuesday night’s debate in demonstrating how absolutely unfit Donald Trump is to become president of the United States.
在全世界的注视下，卡玛拉·哈里斯在周二晚的辩论中表现得极为出色，证明了唐纳德·特朗普绝对不适合成为美国总统。She exposed him for what he is: a hateful and vindictive man, a pathological liar, someone who thrives on divisiveness and xenophobia, and a candidate who has absolutely no vision for the future of the country. (After nine years as a candidate and president he is now working on a “concept” as to how to address the healthcare crisis in our country. Really?)
她揭露了他的真面目：一个充满仇恨和报复心的人，一个病态的骗子，一个在分裂和仇外心理中茁壮成长的人，一个对国家未来完全没有远见的候选人。(在担任候选人和总统九年之后，他现在正在就如何解决美国的医保危机提出一个“概念”。真的吗？）Democrats are rightly euphoric about her excellent performance. This is going to be a very close election and the vice-president had a great night.
民主党人理所当然地为她的出色表现欢欣鼓舞。这将是一场非常激烈的选举，而副总统今晚的表现非常出色。But, before we begin to make plans for her inauguration, we must confront an important reality: the vast majority of the American people already know Donald Trump very well.
但是，在我们开始为她的就职典礼制定计划之前，我们必须面对一个重要的现实：绝大多数美国人民已经非常了解唐纳德·特朗普。They have seen him as president for four years and as a candidate in three elections. They are more than aware that he lies all the time, that he supported an insurrection to overthrow American democracy, and that he has been convicted of 34 felonies.
他们目睹了他担任总统四年和作为候选人参加三次选举。他们更清楚地知道，他一直在撒谎，他支持叛乱以推翻美国的民主制度，他曾被判犯有 34 项重罪。And, yet, roughly half of American voters still support him – including a strong majority of working-class voters.
然而，大约一半的美国选民依然支持他，其中包括强大的工薪阶层选民。It is important that the vice-president continues to define and expose Trump. But it may not be enough to secure a victory. Voters are hungry for a candidate that will deliver meaningful, material change to their lives.
副总统继续定义和揭露特朗普非常重要。但这可能不足以确保获胜。选民们渴望有一位候选人能给他们的生活带来有意义的实质性改变。I applaud Harris for laying out the fundamentals of her economic vision: she promised to cap the cost of prescription drugs for all Americans at $2,000, address the severe housing crisis we face by building 3m units of affordable housing, eliminate medical debt, and take on corporate price gouging that has made it impossible for working families to afford groceries and other basic necessities.
哈里斯阐述了她的经济愿景的基本要素，我对此表示赞赏：她承诺将所有美国人的处方药费用上限定为2000美元，通过建造300万套经济适用房来解决我们面临的严重住房危机，消除医疗债务，并打击使工薪家庭无法负担食品杂货和其他基本必需品的企业价格欺诈行为。These are valuable policies. I believe, however, that her chances of winning improve if she expands that agenda to include popular solutions to the most important economic and political realities facing this country.
这些都是有价值的政策。不过，我认为，如果她能扩大议题，纳入针对美国面临的最重要的经济和政治现实问题的大众解决方案，那么她获胜的机会就会更大。The American people want change, and that’s what she must deliver.
美国人民希望变革，而这正是她必须实现的目标。![]()
Here are just a few ideas that are not only excellent policy, but are extremely popular among voters across the political spectrum:
以下一些不仅是极好的政策，而且在不同政治派别的选民中都非常受欢迎的想法：We have more income and wealth inequality in this country than ever before. Never in our history have so few owned so much. Three people own more wealth than the bottom half of American society, 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck while the very rich continue to get richer, and 82% of Americans – including 73% of Republicans – want the wealthy and large corporations to pay their fair share in taxes.
美国的收入和财富不平等现象比以往任何时候都严重。在我们的历史上，从来没有如此少的人拥有如此多的财富。三个人拥有的财富比美国社会最底层一半人拥有的财富还要多，60% 的美国人过着“靠工资吃饭”的生活，而富人却越来越富，82% 的美国人——包括 73% 的共和党人——希望富人和大公司缴纳他们应缴纳的税款。We have a corrupt political system in which dark money Super Pacs, funded and controlled by billionaires like Elon Musk and Timothy Mellon, put billions of dollars into our elections. The total cost of the 2024 election is expected to come in at over $10bn, more than any in history. Democrats, Republicans and independents understand that we can hardly be called a vibrant democracy when a handful of the wealthiest people in this country – including Democratic billionaires – can spend hundreds of millions to elect the candidates of their choice. Seven in 10 Americans think there should be limits on election spending. We must overturn Citizens United and establish publicly funded elections.
我们有一个腐败的政治体制，由埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）和蒂莫西·梅隆（Timothy Mellon）等亿万富翁资助和控制的黑钱超级政治集团向我们的选举投入了数十亿美元。2024 年选举的总成本预计将超过 100 亿美元，超过历史上任何一次选举。民主党人、共和党人和无党派人士都明白，当这个国家最富有的一小撮人——包括民主党的亿万富翁——可以花费数亿美元选举他们心目中的候选人时，我们很难称得上是一个充满活力的民主国家。七成美国人认为应该限制选举支出。我们必须推翻“联合公民”组织，建立公共资助的选举制度。In the richest country on earth it’s absurd that 75% of seniors who need hearing aids don’t have them, 65% of seniors don’t have dental insurance and eyeglass frames manufactured for as little as $10 cost over $230. Some 84% of Americans – including 83% of Republicans – want to expand Medicare to cover dental, hearing and vision. The vice-president should run on this.
在这个世界上最富裕的国家，75%需要助听器的老年人没有助听器，65%的老年人没有牙科保险，生产成本仅为 10 美元的眼镜框价格超过230美元，这一切都太荒谬了。约84%的美国人——包括83%的共和党人——希望扩大医保的范围，将牙科、听力和视力纳入其中。副总统应该为此竞选。At a time when about half of American households over the age of 55 have no retirement savings and one out of five seniors is trying to live on less than $13,500 a year, we must expand social security so that everyone in this country can retire with the dignity they have earned and everyone with a disability can live with the security they need. We can do that by lifting the cap on social security taxes, so that the very wealthy pay the same tax rate as working-class families.
在55岁以上的美国家庭中，约有一半没有退休储蓄，每五位老人中就有一位试图靠每年不到1.35万美元的收入生活，在这种情况下，我们必须扩大社会保障，让这个国家的每一个人都能有尊严地退休，让每一个残疾人都能过上他们需要的安全生活。我们可以通过取消社会保障税的上限来做到这一点，从而使非常富有的人与工薪阶层家庭支付相同的税率。The American people are united in supporting these popular ideas. They are important policies. They are winning politics. And they are particularly popular in the battleground states that Harris needs to win.
美国人民团结一致，支持这些广受欢迎的理念。它们是重要的政策。它们是制胜的政治。他们在哈里斯需要赢得的战场州尤其受欢迎。In other words: campaigning on an economic agenda that speaks to the needs of working families is a winning formula for Kamala Harris and Democrats in November.
换句话说：以满足工薪家庭需求的经济议题为竞选纲领，是卡玛拉·哈里斯和民主党人在11月的制胜法宝。By embracing bold ideas that address the day-to-day crises facing America’s working families, Harris can not only win the White House, but create a Democratic party that is responsive to the needs of ordinary Americans.
通过采纳大胆的主张来解决美国工薪家庭面临的日常危机，哈里斯不仅能赢得白宫，还能创建一个满足普通美国人需求的民主党。简评：伯尼·桑德斯提醒得有一定道理。我之前说过，西方左翼不能仅靠右翼太弱而取得阶段性胜利就洋洋自得，否则隐患无穷。如英国工党因保守党已到强弩之末而上台，结果发现危机就在眼前，爆发了数十年来最大骚乱——这是因为工党自身并没有准备好，因为他们并没有构建好一个清晰的新党魂——近日，据《金融时报》报道，斯塔默不得不请回布莱尔和布朗时期的“新工党”旧臣来商讨英国该向何处去：美国民主党同样面临着这个问题，许多选民虽然并不愿看到那位旧老头重新掌权，但对于这位新阿姨统治下的未来也看不太清。当然，也有人曾对此保持乐观。知名民调师Nate Silver前不久认为，在最后的民调上，哈里斯会险胜，因为她入局不久，人们对于她是谁，她代表什么，会随着时间的紧迫性而迫使自己越来越了解。然而，他最新的民调Silver Bulletin显示，哈里斯的领先优势正在缩小：![]()
一定程度上，哈里斯需要有明晰的改善主张。毕竟不是每个人都读过她的回忆录。美国诗人E.B.怀特曾说，
“If the world were merely seductive, that would be easy. If it were merely challenging, that would be no problem. But I arise in the morning torn between a desire to improve the world and a desire to enjoy the world. This makes it hard to plan the day.”
“如果这个世界只充满诱惑，那很好办。如果它仅具有挑战性，那也没问题。但我每天早上起来，都会在改善世界的愿望和享受世界的愿望之间纠结。这让我很难规划一天的生活。”
不过，没有清晰的纲领，也不容易成为众矢之的，这也许就是她的策略。《孙子·虚实篇》中说，“寡者，备人者也；众者，使人备己者也。” 意思是说，处在劣势，是因为处处防备敌人；处在优势，是因为使敌人处处防备自己。明枪易躲，暗箭难防。
风象星座的哈里斯，策略如风一样无形，的确不是以实打实的方案为战术的土象星座的桑德斯所能理解得了的。也许她就是打太极的料。
（微软AI Designer生成图）
美国没有出过女总统，但英国出过的三位女首相中，两位都是跟哈里斯一个星座的。一位是玛格丽特·撒切尔，一位是特雷莎·梅。但那都是保守党人。英美左翼虽然一直为女权呐喊，但却还没出过女性总统或首相。我们对她可以有所期待。
先把天下打下来，至于怎么治天下，八字都没一撇，现在根本不用着急。打天下用打天下的谋略，治天下用治天下的才智，闷声发大财，车到山前必有路。
对了，有人后台评论说只有左翼媒体和人士否定特朗普。通过昨天和今天我转载的这两篇文章，可以明显看出，右翼人士一样否定特朗普（不仅仅是卡尔·罗夫不齿特朗普，包括切尼父女在内的200多名共和党人这次甚至公开为哈里斯背书），相反，左翼人士在否定特朗普之外，也在担心哈里斯。
美国总统大选早已不是党派政治。两党内部都有不同派别。许多议题的通过都是跨党派合作的产物。而且特朗普批判哈里斯在台上三年半时间里没看到变革，其实放在特朗普身上同样适用，毕竟他在台上的后两年也是一样向建制派妥协，毫无建树。
别看到风就是雨，多看看不同角度的文章，多看看他们背后幕僚所写的书，自己思考，再做决定。注意到，在拜登的美国国安事务助理沙利文访华的聚光灯之外，有几家小媒体已经开始关注起了哈里斯的国安班子：
此外，有人认为，哈里斯仅靠哈哈的快乐竞选无法胜选，但如果她跟赢得辩论那样最终赢了总统宝座，那么是特朗普荒谬呢？还是您荒谬呢？
