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全球贸易变化可能会在2025年继续，因为企业旨在防止现有和新兴风险造成的中断。
Xeneta在一项新的分析中表示，增加贸易能力似乎对托运人来说是一个明显的好处，但如果它导致拥堵和延误，特别是如果部署了更大的船只，港口基础设施面临压力，那么它就会带来供应链风险。
除了地缘政治紧张局势造成的持续压力外，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的当选也对已经脆弱的全球供应链提出了另一个考验，因为人们再次担心可能与中国发生贸易战。
Xeneta高级航运分析师Emily Staubøll写道：“随着中国似乎希望增加对南美等地区的出口，正如美国在特朗普新总统任期内将提高进口关税一样，2025年全球贸易格局将进一步转变。”。
远东-南美洲东岸的交易量可能创历史新高
Staubøll在Xeneta分析中指出，2024年全球贸易模式发生了巨大转变，使管理和优化供应链的任务变得更加复杂。
该报告补充说，这在从远东到南美东海岸的贸易中得到了完美的证明，今年前九个月，在中国出口的推动下，创纪录的160万个20英尺标准箱（TEU）的出货量，与2023年相比增长了14.8%。
Xeneta的高级航运分析师补充道：“除了创纪录的交易量外，10月前四周（9月30日至10月27日）的平均运力为63900标准箱，创下了历史新高。”。
Staubøll指出，与2023年同期相比，这一数字增长了73%。
她补充说，在2024年之前，该贸易的四周平均产能从未超过50000标准箱，但现在已经超过了13次。
Xeneta平台的数据显示，截至10月27日的四周内，远东和南美东海岸之间所有服务的提供容量同比增长。
报告补充说，增幅最大的是由CMA CGM、COSCO、Evergreen和PIL联合运营的ESA/SA3/ASE1服务。
与此同时，与2023年同期相比，该服务的运力增加了一倍多，部署了四艘船，而去年只有一艘。
Staubøll说：“主要的东西方联盟不在远东和南美东海岸之间运营。相反，大多数服务是由通常联盟伙伴关系之外的几家航空公司联合运营的。”。
她指出，MSC运营的独立Carioca服务是2024年在这条贸易通道上运营的唯一新服务。在截至第43周的四周内，每周平均部署11100标准箱。Carioca服务将韩国和中国连接到巴西南部，包括在新加坡和科伦坡停靠。
这项服务几乎使MSC在远东-南美贸易中的存在翻了一番。
Xeneta指出，其与赫伯罗特和ONE合作提供的另一项服务在同一四周内平均每周运力为11500标准箱。
运输时间和航期可靠性可能进一步恶化
虽然托运人可能正在享受远东和南美东海岸之间创纪录的高运力，但Xeneta平台的数据显示，这是该贸易有史以来最高的运输时间，也是有史以来最低的时间表可靠性。
Xeneta在分析中指出，2024年下半年，航空公司承诺在34-42天的范围内平均飞行38天。
今年第三季度，实际行程时间为47天。尽管运营商没有宣布任何变化，但这明显高于第二季度的42天平均值。
Staubøll表示：“实际运输时间的增加导致9月份该贸易的时间表可靠性降至历史最低水平，当时只有19.5%的船舶按时到达。与年初只有一半以上的船舶（53%）按时到达相比，这是一个严重的恶化。”。
她指出，2024年之前，这项贸易的时间表可靠性没有降至33%以下，这突显了托运人面临的挑战的规模，特别是考虑到这项贸易没有直接受到2024年红海冲突这一重大中断的影响。
Staubøll接着说，即使是在这个指标上表现最好的航空公司ZIM，在9月份也只实现了30.4%的计划可靠性。HMM的时间表可靠性最低，只有10.3%的船只准时到达。
额外舱位补助可能降低现货价格
尽管运输时间和可靠性不断恶化，但报告称，自7月以来，远东和南美东海岸之间创纪录的高运力导致现货市场疲软。
11月18日，平均即期价格降至每FEU 6610美元，比7月份每FEU 9840美元的市场峰值下降了33.8%。
尽管最近有所下降，但报告指出，即期价格仍比去年同期高出80.7%。
Xeneta表示，平均长期利率也比去年大幅上升，增长了84.6%，达到每FEU 4200美元。
它补充道：“这种上升只出现在2024年下半年，11月是长期利率小幅下降的第一个月，比10月底下降了几百美元。”。
该报告称，许多托运人目前正在对这项贸易进行投标，疲软的现货市场必须与现货和长期费率之间每FEU 2500美元的巨大价差相平衡。
Global trade shifts are likely to continue in 2025 as businesses aim to prevent disruptions caused by existing and emerging risks.
Xeneta said in a new analysis that increasing trade capacity might appear to be an obvious benefit for shippers, but if it leads to congestion and delays—especially if larger ships are deployed, and port infrastructure is put under strain—then it presents supply chain risk.
Aside from ongoing strains caused by geopolitical tensions, the election of former US president Donald Trump also puts another test on the already fragile global supply chains amid renewed concerns about a possible trade war with China.
"With China seemingly looking to increase exports to regions such as South America, just as the US is set to increase import tariffs under a new Trump presidency, 2025 will see further shifts in global trade patterns, said Emily Staubøll, Xeneta senior shipping analyst wrote.
Record volumes for Far East-South America East Coast
Staubøll noted in the Xeneta analysis that massive shifts in global trading patterns occurred in 2024, making the task of managing and optimizing supply chains even more complex.
The report added that this is perfectly demonstrated in the trade from the Far East to South America's East Coast, where a record-breaking 1.6 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) were shipped in the first nine months of the year—driven by exports from China, which are up 14.8% compared to 2023.
"Alongside the record-breaking volume on this trade is an all-time high in offered capacity, which averaged 63,900 TEU in the first four weeks of October (September 30 to October 27)," Xeneta's senior shipping analyst added.
Staubøll noted that this is an increase of 73% compared to the same period in 2023.
She added that prior to 2024, the four-week average of capacity on this trade had never been above 50,000 TEU, but that mark has now been passed 13 times.
Data in the Xeneta platform shows year-on-year increases in offered capacity on all services operating between the Far East and South America's East Coast in the four-week period ending on October 27.
The report added that the biggest increase came in the ESA/SA3/ASE1 service jointly operated by CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen and PIL.
Meanwhile, offered capacity more than doubled on this service from the same period in 2023, with four ships deployed compared to just one last year.
"The major East-West alliances don't operate between the Far East and South American East Coast. Instead, most services are operated jointly by several carriers outside of usual alliance partnerships," Staubøll said.
She noted that the standalone Carioca service operated by MSC is the only new service operating on this trade lane in 2024. In the four-week period ending in week 43, it saw a weekly average of 11,100 TEU deployed. The Carioca service connects South Korea and China to Southern Brazil, including stops in Singapore and Colombo.
This service almost doubles MSC's presence in the Far East-South America trade.
Xeneta noted that its other service, offered in partnership with Hapag-Lloyd and ONE, had an average weekly capacity of 11,500 TEU in the same four-week period.
Deteriorating transit times and schedule reliability
While shippers may be enjoying record-high capacity between the Far East and South America East Coast, data in the Xeneta platform shows the highest transit times on record for this trade and the lowest-ever recorded schedule reliability.
In the analysis, Xeneta noted that in the second half of 2024, carriers have promised an average journey of 38 days within a range of 34-42 days.
In Q3 this year, the actual journey time stood at 47 days. This is significantly up from the 42-day average in Q2 despite no announced change from carriers.
"This increase in actual transit times saw schedule reliability fall to an all-time low for this trade in September, when just 19.5% of ships arrived on time. This is a significant deterioration compared to the start of the year when just over half of ships (53%) arrived on time," Staubøll said.
She noted that schedule reliability on this trade had not fallen below 33% prior to 2024, which highlights the scale of the challenge shippers are facing, especially considering this trade is not directly affected by the major disruption of 2024—the conflict in the Red Sea.
Staubøll went on to say that even the best-performing carrier on this metric, ZIM, only achieved schedule reliability of 30.4% in September. HMM had the lowest schedule reliability, with only 10.3% of its ships arriving on time.
Extra capacity helps spot rates soften
Despite deteriorating transit times and reliability, the report said record high capacity offered between the Far East and South America East Coast has contributed to a softening of the spot market since July.
The average spot rate fell to US$6,610 per FEU on November 18, down 33.8% from the market peak of US$9,840 per FEU in July.
Despite the recent drops, the report noted that spot rates are still 80.7% higher than they were at this time last year.
Xeneta said the average long-term rate is also substantially up from last year, with an 84.6% increase, leaving it at US$4,200 per FEU.
"This uptick has only come in the second half of 2024, with November being the first month long-term rates dropped slightly, down a couple of hundred dollars from the end of October," it added.
The report said many shippers are currently tendering on this trade, and the weakening spot market must be balanced against the still significant US$2,500 per FEU spread between spot and long-term rates.
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