禾赛科技
Hesai Group
(HSAI)
2024Q3點評：收入大超指引，預計24全年實現Non-GAAP盈利
We anticipate a strong 2024E performance with non-GAAP profit in view of robust Q3 revenue and stable tie-ups
買入（維持評級） BUY (maintain) |
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投資要點/Investment Thesis
業績概覽：24Q3收入為5.4億元，高此前指引的4.5億元，同比增長21.1%; 毛利率為47.7%，同比增長17.1pct，得益於成本和規模良性循環的飛輪效應與開發服務收入的助力;經調整凈虧損為4400萬元，同比收窄56.8%。
交付量情況：ADAS產品交付強勁增長。 24Q3 ADAS激光雷達出貨量為129913台，同比增長220.0%。 24Q3激光雷達總出貨量為134208台，同比增長182.9%。 2024前三季度ADAS激光雷達出貨量為263148台，同比增長129.9%。 24年前三季度激光雷達總出貨量為279835台，同比增長108.2%。
業務進展：公司已在全球範圍內與20家OEM就75個車型達成ADAS定點合作。
全球市場：公司與一家全球領先的OEM的全球化交付計劃取得進展，已成功完成B樣件交付; 亞洲市場，與一家日本Top 3 OEM簽署兩個新開發項目（POC），涵蓋L2+乘用車和L4 Robotaxi應用。 目前，公司正在與三家全球OEM開展四個POC項目。
國內市場：與零跑汽車達成新平台合作協議; 為一家中國頭部汽車集團旗下高端電動汽車品牌的兩款旗艦車型的改款提供支援; 一家中國頭部電動車製造商已簽署協議，將在其2025年車型中獨家採用公司的L3超高性能激光雷達和ATX激光雷達; 與上汽大眾簽署汽車激光雷達合作框架協議。
產品進展：OT128開始量產交付。 公司已發佈旗艦級360°車規級遠距機械式激光雷達產品OT128。 OT128延續了AT128P 95%的關鍵組件，具有每秒345萬點的點頻率，以及在10%反射率下200米的探測範圍。 自發佈以來，OT128已與包括文遠知行、西井科技、Embotech和EasyMile在內的90多家全球及國內客戶簽署合作協議，已經開始量產交付。
後續展望：收入端，公司預計24Q4的收入為1億美元。 交付量方面，公司預計24Q4出貨量將在20萬台。 利潤端，公司預計24Q4有望實現2000萬美元GAAP盈利 ，24全年實現Non-GAAP盈利。
We anticipate a strong showing for Hesai’s full-year 2024E performance, on the strength of Q3 financials. Further, tie-ups with stable brand customers are gathering momentum and its flagship OT128 lidar has started mass production and deliveries. We maintain our BUY call on the stock.
The gist: BUY
· Our view: Hesai will likely deliver a strong full-year 2024E performance
· Trackback: 24Q3E revenue was far better than guided at 21% yoy growth
· Designated ADAS partner to 20 OEMs; OT128 mass production and deliveries
Our view: Hesai will likely deliver a strong full-year 2024E performance
We believe lidar leader Hesai will profit handsomely with increasing levels 2+ and 3 penetration as the autonomous driving industry develops. In the Chinese market, lidar sensor penetration has reached car models priced at around RMB150,000. The latest information shows that Hesai established partnerships in 24Q3 with a top-three Japanese automaker, as well as SAIC Volkswagen and Leapmotor. With its business posting strong growth as it continues to acquire new customers and new projects, we anticipate a strong showing for its full-year 2024E performance. We take a closer look at its 24Q3E unaudited results released end-November 2024:
24Q3E performance: revenue was far better than guided at 21% yoy growth
Financials: revenue came to RMB540m, higher than the RMB450m Hesai had guided, and growing 21.1% yoy; and gross margin was 47.7%, a yoy increase of 17.1ppt, due to the flywheel effect of its virtuous cycle of cost, scale and development service revenue, which led non-GAAP net loss to narrow 56.8% yoy to RMB44m.
Deliveries: ADAS product deliveries grew strongly in 24Q3:
· Q3: Hesai shipped 129,913 ADAS lidar units in the third quarter, up 220.0% yoy, bringing total lidar shipments to 134,208 units, a yoy increase of 182.9%.
· 24Q1-3: the company shipped 263,148 ADAS lidar units over the first 3 quarters of the year, up 129.9% yoy; and total lidar shipments reached 279,835 units, up 108.2% yoy.
Collaborations: designated ADAS partner to 20 OEMs worldwide for 75 car models
Worldwide: Hesai reached a key milestone in its global buildout roadmap when it delivered B samples to a leading global OEM in Q3.
Asia: the company signed two new development projects (POCs) with a Japanese top-3 OEM that covers L2+ passenger cars and L4 robotaxi applications. It current has four POC projects underway with three global OEMs.
China: recent deals for the Chinese market included:
· Leapmotor: Hesai inked a new platform cooperation agreement with high-end Chinese electric vehicle (EV) automaker Leapmotor to provide support for the facelift of two of its flagship models.
· Exclusive partner for L3 and ATX lidars: the company signed an exclusive deal with a leading Chinese EV manufacturer to deploy its L3 ultra-high-performance and ATX ultra-compact long-range lidars in its 2025 models.
· SAIC Volkswagen: Hesai also signed an automotive lidar cooperation framework agreement with SAIC Volkswagen.
Flagship OT128 lidar started mass production and deliveries
After Hesai launched its flagship OT128 lidar in Q3, the company inked cooperation agreements on OT128 with over 90 Chinese and foreign customers such as WeRide, West Well, Embotech and EasyMile, and it has already started mass production and deliveries. OT128 is a 360° automotive-grade long-range lidar that inherits 95% of the key components of AT128P. It has a point frequency of 3.45m points per second and a detection range of 200m at 10% reflectivity.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
投資建議：禾賽有望顯著受益於自動駕駛行業發展下L2+/L3滲透率提升，目前中國市場激光雷達進一步滲透至15萬元左右的車型。 公司業務保持強勁增長，持續獲得新客戶和新項目。 本季度公司與一家日本前三的頭部車企、上汽大眾、零跑汽車等建立合作關係。 我們看好禾賽領先的技術/工程能力和已驗證的大規模交付能力，以及更多OEM合作及相關車型發佈。 我們預計公司24-26年收入分別為20.6/26.9/33.3億元，維持“買入”評級。
Forecast and risks
24Q4E guidance: the company expects revenue to come in at USD100m in 24Q4E. In terms of delivery volume, the company expects shipments of 200,000 units in 24Q4E. In terms of profit, the company expects to achieve a GAAP profit of USD20m in Q4 2024 and a Non-GAAP profit for 2024E.
Our forecast: we are bullish about Hesai’s tech leadership and engineering prowess, on top of its proven large-scale delivery capabilities. We anticipate incremental potential payoffs with more OEM cooperation and further customer vehicle model launches. Hence, we project Hesai will generate revenue of RMB2.06bn/2.69bn/3.33bn in 2024/25/26E. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
風險提示：行業競爭加劇; L2+/L3滲透率不及預期; 公司經營風險
Risks include: intensifying competition; lower penetration of L2+ and L3 autonomous driving than expected; and operating risks.
Email: research@tfisec.com
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