特步國際：主牌穩中向好，索康尼亮眼

24Q4實現顯著增長

公司發佈24Q4經營數據，特步主品牌Q4零售銷售同比增長（包括線上線下渠道）錄得高單位數; 24全年零售銷售同比增長（包括線上線下渠道）錄得高單位數。

索康尼Q4零售銷售同比增長（包括線上線下渠道）約50%，24全年零售銷售同比增長（包括線上線下渠道）超過60%。

庫存維持健康狀態，折扣略微改善

特步主品牌24全年管道存貨周轉為約四個月的健康水準。 從折扣率來看，特步主品牌Q4零售折扣水準為七至七五折，同比23Q4約七折的折扣水準略微改善。

跑步領域領先地位持續凸顯，品牌協同效應助推增長

特步在24年上馬中蟬聯破3跑者穿著率第一併獲得全域跑者穿著率榜首，連續5年蟬聯廈馬破3跑鞋品牌第一，穿著率佔比49.8%，我們認為有效證明公司跑步領域領先地位，且公司跑步產品持續佔領跑者心智。

當下公司運營主要通過特步主品牌面向大眾市場，索康尼服務於高端且成熟的顧客群，邁樂專注於越野跑和戶外運動。 三個品牌獨特的共通點突顯集團在跑步領域的領先地位，有望產生最大的協同效應並加速可持續增長。

索康尼是公司重要增長引擎，25年仍有望持續發展

索康尼通過代言人簽約、產品創新、渠道升級和活動贊助等，多方面加強品牌推廣力度以推動增長。 索康尼品牌全年零售銷售增長超過60%，展現出強勁的品牌增長潛力和市場認可度。 公司計劃索康尼將繼續擴充產品矩陣，加大推廣力度，並加快在高線城市開設新形象店。

我們認為，公司通過發揮特步主品牌於跑步領域的絕對優勢，疊加中國最大跑步生態圈的支援，以及特步主品牌與索康尼和邁樂之間的協同效應，集團有望進一步提高市場份額，拓展潛在顧客群。

We like XTEP’s absolute advantage in running sports and its largest runners’ ecosystem in China, as well as its synergies with Saucony and Merrell that milk diverse target markets. We see much potential for further market share gains ahead and maintain our BUY call.

The gist: BUY

· Q4 update: stable retail sales growth; healthy inventories and discounting

· Household name XTEP commands top wear rates at key marathons

· Brand synergy: dominating running sportswear via differentiated markets

24Q4 update: retail sales had stable growth; healthy inventories and discounting

Retail sales: Xtep International released 24Q4E operating data on 9 Jan 2025:

· XTEP: the main brand’s retail sales grew by a high-single-digit in 24Q4 (both online and offline channels), resulting in high-single-digit growth for 2024.

· Saucony: Q4 retail sales maintained the 50% yoy quarterly growth trajectory (both online and offline channels), which led to a 60% growth pace in 2024.

Inventory: the XTEP main brand maintained healthy channel inventory turnover at about 4 months in 2024.

Discounting: the main brand’s retail sales kept discounts within 25-30% in Q4, a tad better than the over-30% levels in 23Q4.

XTEP remains a household name that commands wear rates at key marathons

The company leads the running sportswear market with consistently high wear rates at global running events. Xtep’s dominance at marathons reveals its pervasive consumer mindshare and leading edge in the running sports field:

· Shanghai Marathon: Xtep took twin honors in 2024 with the highest wear rate among runners who finished within 3 hours and the highest wear rate for all runners.

· Xiamen Marathon: XTEP footwear has ruled the Xiamen event for 5 years in a row with a wear rate of 49.8%, which is the highest wear rate among runners who finished within 3 hours.

Brand synergy: Xtep dominates running sportswear via differentiated markets 

Differentiation: the interplay of Xtep brands’ differentiated market positioning effectively drives the company’s running sports leadership. We believe this synergy will bring sustainable growth over the long term:

· The XTEP core brand mainly targets the mass market;

· Saucony serves premium users and mature consumers; and

· Merrell focuses on trail running and outdoor sports.

Saucony: the company stepped up promotions for Saucony that cover multiple aspects to drive growth of its upmarket brand: signing on brand ambassadors, pushing product innovations, upgrading channels and establishing event sponsorships. The brand’s 2024 retail sales growth of over 60% is a testament to its strong market recognition, suggesting its strong growth potential. Xtep International intends to expand Saucony’s product matrix and promotions, as well as open more new-format stores in China’s higher-tier cities.

Outlook: we believe expect Xtep International will continue to expand its potential customer base by capitalizing on main brand XTEP’s absolute advantage in running sports and its largest runners’ ecosystem in China, as well as through the brand’s synergies with other key brands Saucony and Merrell. We see much potential for further market share gains ahead.