拼多多(PDD US): 24Q3業績：內部投入加大，看好公司長期發展

24Q3業績要點：收入端及利潤端穩健增長

公司公佈24Q3業績。2024Q3公司營業收入同比增長44%至994億元; 拆分來看，公司24Q3營銷服務收入為493.5億元，同比增長24%; 交易服務收入同比增長72%至500億元，公司指出Q3營收增速主要受競爭加劇和內部投入加大等因素影響; 公司24Q3可比調整后凈利潤同比增長61%至274.6億元，低於彭博一致預期，Non-GAAP凈利率為27.6%。

行業競爭激烈，廣告及電商增速放緩

收入端來看，公司24Q3營銷服務收入同比增長24%，增速同環比均有所放緩，交易服務收入同增72%，我們預計公司增速有所放緩主要系宏觀消費疲軟疊加公司減免商家多項費用，免除偏遠地區訂單的中轉費用，或部分拖累主站佣金收入。利潤端來看，考慮到公司受限於3P業務模式，國補政策對公司助力有限，公司或加大補貼以維持相關商品的價格優勢; 同時，考慮到行業激烈競爭，公司或加大投入以維繫增長，因此公司短期利潤端或承壓。我們認為公司加大投入應對行業激烈競爭，短期或部分影響貨幣化率，短期利潤端或承壓，長期來看，我們認為加大投入有利於為消費者提供更好的產品和服務，同時也可以部分緩和商家和平台的緊張關係，有利於平台長期健康發展，我們認為從長期角度公司仍具備強競爭力。

TEMU半託管佔比穩步提升，海外監管不確定性加大

公司海外市場穩步擴張，根據公司官網，TEMU已上線超80個國家和地區，並於3月中旬在北美推出半託管模式，此後陸續在歐洲、日韓等地區開放半託管模式，我們認為隨著半託管模式佔比提升，公司海外監管風險和政策風險或部分轉嫁，公司表示將進一步加強合規，建設健康的營商環境，追求公司海外業務長期健康發展，我們認為短期由於半託管模式的投入，利潤端或承壓，但預計全年海外虧損額可控。

With its sights set on long-term growth, PDD continues to strengthen its partnerships with high-performing merchants and building up its platform ecosystem. Meanwhile, it is steadily expanding its international footprint and implementing a semi-managed model. We maintain our BUY call.

The gist: BUY

·24Q3E revenue up 44% yoy to RMB99.35bn

·PDD invested into supporting quality sellers, improve platform ecosystem

·Temu: growing semi-managed business; rising regulatory risks

24Q3E results highlights: Sturdy growth in revenue and profit

PDD released unaudited 24Q3E results recently.

Key metrics: revenue rose 44% yoy to RMB99.35bn; adjusted net profit grew 61% yoy to RMB27.46bn, below the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG). Non-GAAP net margin came to 27.6%. The company noted that revenue growth during the quarter was constrained by factors such as intensifying competition and heavier internal investments.

Segmental revenue: online marketing services brought in revenue of RMB49.35bn, up 24% yoy. Revenue from transaction services increased 72% yoy to RMB50bn.

Advertising and ecommerce: revenue growth dampened by fierce competition

Revenue: even though both online marketing and transaction services saw revenues increase yoy, growth slowed in both qoq and yoy terms at online marketing. We attribute the slowdown mainly to weak macro-consumption, as well as the company’s moves to reduce merchant fees and waive transit fees for orders from remote regions, which could have weighed on commission income from its main marketplace.

Profit: PDD operates under a third-party (3P) business model and benefits only partially from China’s subsidy policies, so we reckon the company might increase subsidies to maintain its price advantage in certain products. In addition, stiff competition could prompt it to boost investment to bolster growth, so profits might come under pressure in the short term.

Outlook: in the short term, we believe increasing investment in response to heavy competition could affect monetization rates. However, in the long term, we feel such a move could help provide consumers with better products and services, while promoting healthy development of its platform ecosystem by strengthening its merchant partnerships. Thus, we believe PDD will be able to maintain its strong competitive edge.

Temu: steady growth in semi-managed business; rise in regulatory uncertainties

PDD has been steadily expanding its global market through Temu, its international arm, which has launched in more than 80 countries and regions, according to its official website. The company had launched a semi-custodial management model in North America in March and has since extended it to Europe, Japan, South Korea and other regions. We believe that as contributions from this semi-managed business increase, the company could face an increase in regulatory and policy risks overseas. PDD has stated it will strengthen compliance, build a healthy business environment and pursue sound long-term development for its global business. We believe its investments in the semi-managed model could add some pressure to profits but expect the company would manage losses at its international arm.