快手-W (1024 HK): 2024Q3業績點評：核心業務穩健增長，外循環廣告增長超預期

24Q3業績要點：收入利潤符合預期

公司公佈24Q3業績。2024Q3公司實現營業收入311億元，同比增長11.4%；經調整凈利潤為39億元，同比增長24.4%，毛利為169億元，同比增長17%。銷售及營銷開支同比增長15.9%，達104億元，佔總收入的比例為33.3%，增長主要系推廣活動開支增加。研發開支同比增長4.5%，達31億元，佔總收入的比例的10%，其增長主要系雇員福利開支的增加。行政開支同比下降11.4%。我們認為公司核心業務收入增長穩健，建議持續關注公司獲利率變化情況。

流量端：使用者流量創新高，DAU及時長同比均小幅提升

2024Q3快手應用平均DAU/MAU分別為4.08億/7.14億，同比增長5.4%/4.3%，DAU創歷史新高；每位DAU的日均使用時長為132.2分鐘，同比增長7.3%，展望未來，我們認為公司單用戶獲取及留存成本或持續優化，用戶獲取ROI有望進一步提升。

線上營銷業務：外循環廣告增長強勁，內循環廣告增長穩健

2024Q3，線上營銷服務收入達176億元，同比增長20%，其增長驅動力主要系公司外循環廣告；從外循環來看，傳媒資訊、平台電商和本地生活等行業營銷消耗增長顯著，UAX消耗在外循環中比例進一步提升至約50%；從內循環來看，24Q3內循環月活躍動銷投流商家數量同比增長超過50%；展望Q4，我們預計公司外循環廣告維持強勁增長態勢，內循環廣告仍有望與GMV增速同步。

其他服務收入（含電商）：GMV受季節性因素影響，泛貨架GMV有望穩步提升

2024Q3，公司其他服務收入同比增長17.5%至42億元，快手電商GMV同比增長15.1%，達到人民幣3342億元。供給端來看，2024Q3快手電商月均動銷商家數量同比增長超過40%，其中新入駐快手的商家數量同比增長超過30%，這主要得益於公司持續推動「斗金計劃」「啟航計劃」和「扶遊計劃」等新商家策略；需求端來看，2024Q3快手電商月活躍買家數同比增長12.2%至1.33億，環比有所提升，這得益於公司圍繞新使用者的成長階段設計了多元化的營銷玩法；展望Q4，我們認為隨著公司商城場景逐步推進，泛貨架GMV佔比持續超大盤增長（2024Q3 GMV佔比為27%以上），預計全年GMV同比增速有望達18%。

直播打賞業務：簽約公會及主播數量穩健增長，新產品進展良好

2024Q3直播業務收入為人民幣93億元，同比下降3.9%，收入降幅環比進一步收窄。截至三季度末，平台簽約公會機構數量同比提升40%，簽約主播數量同比增長60%；“直播+”生態下，“快聘”業務的日均簡歷投遞量同比增長近一倍，雙向匹配規模同比增長超過20%；展望未來，我們認為公司有望通過豐富產品形式（快聘、理想家等），滿足不同場景下的使用者需求，進一步優化直播生態系統。

海外業務：ROI驅動增長，追求核心區域商業化變現

2024Q3同比增長104.1%至13.3億元，營業虧損同比減少75.9%至1.53億元。其中，海外業務在用戶增長、獲客管道創新和使用者流程優化方面取得突破，包括巴西地區日活躍使用者（DAU）同比增長9.7%，單日DAU日均使用時長同比增長4.2%。我們認為基於公司海外ROI驅動的增長模式，公司將把重點資源投放在用戶較為集中、生態較為成熟、可開啟商業化變現的重點國家。

Media data, ecommerce and local services helped drive advertising revenue from external clients in the third quarter. With the core businesses tracking a steady revenue uptrend, we reckon investors might want to watch for any shifts in profit margin trends. We maintain our BUY call on the stock.

The gist: BUY

· 24Q3E adjusted net profit up 24%; both revenue and profit were in line

· Ecommerce: seasonal dip in content GMV; pan-shelf GMV set to rise steadily

· Online marketing services: external ads up strongly; internal ads stable

24Q3E highlights: adjusted net profit up 24%; both revenue and profit were in line

Key metrics: Kuaishou Technology’s unaudited 24Q3E results showed it generated revenue of RMB31.1bn, up 11.4% yoy, and gross profit of RMB16.9bn, a yoy increase of 17%, while adjusted net profit rose handsomely by 24.4% yoy to RMB3.9bn.

Expense management:

· Sales and marketing expenses increased 15.9% yoy to RMB10.4bn in the quarter, equivalent to one-third of revenue, mostly due to promotional activities.

· R&D expenses increased 4.5% yoy to RMB3.1 bn, equivalent to 10% of revenue, much of it from employee welfare benefits.

· Administrative expenses, however, shrank 11.4% yoy.

Key takeaway: Kuaishou’s core revenue is tracking a steady uptrend and we suggest that investors watch for changes in profit margin trends.

User traffic: new DAU record in Q3; both DAUs and duration ticked up yoy

408m DAUs: the Kuaishou app averaged 408m daily active users, a new record, while it drew 714m monthly active users in 24Q3, yoy increases of 5.4% and 4.3%. Each DAU clocked 132.2 minutes in daily usage time on average, 7.3% longer yoy.

Outlook: we believe the company will keep drilling down per-user acquisition and retention costs, and we expect user acquisition ROI will continue to tick upward ahead.

Online marketing services: external ads up strongly; internal ads pacing steadily

External ads: Kuaishou generated RMB17.6bn revenue from online marketing services in 24Q3E, up 20% yoy, driven mainly by external clients. Its external ads industry profile showed strong growth in markets like media data, ecommerce platforms and local services. The company launched differentiated ad placements with diverse scenarios in the Universal Auto X (UAX) segment in Q3, which led UAX to account for about half of its external clients’ total marketing budget.

Internal ads: the number of merchants with active sales and investments in Kuaishou’s closed-loop advertising increased more than 50% yoy in 24Q3.

Outlook: we expect the external advertising business would maintain strong growth in Q4E, while internal ads would likely grow in step with GMV growth.

Ecommerce: seasonal dip in content GMV; pan-shelf GMV set to rise steadily

Key metrics: ecommerce GMV rose 15.1% yoy to RMB334.2bn. Kuaishou accounts ecommerce under its “Other services” segment, which generated revenue of RMB4.2bn in 24Q3E, up 17.5% yoy.

Supply: the number of monthly active merchant in Kuaishou’s ecommerce business rose more than 40% yoy on average in 24Q3, among which the number of new merchants rose more than 30% yoy. This was mainly due to the company’s strategic initiatives to woo new merchants, such as Golden Bounty, Set Sail and Uplift.

Demand: Kuaishou’s newly-designed diverse-marketing strategy harnesses new ecommerce users’ growth value and it drew 133m monthly active buyers in 24Q3, up 12.2% yoy, while also increasing on a qoq basis.

Outlook: as the company’s mall scenarios gain traction, we expect pan-shelf GMV will increase its share of total GMV in 24Q4E (from over-27% in 24Q3), while we anticipate 18% GMV growth for 2024E.

Livestreams: more guilds and anchors sign on; new products gain traction

Key metrics: revenue from livestreams amounted to RMB9.3bn in 24Q3E, down 3.9% yoy, while the qoq decline trend narrowed. The number of guilds and institutions signed to the platform rose 40% yoy and it signed over-60% yoy more anchors as of end-Q3.

Drivers: Kuaishou increased livestream collaborations within its ecosystem. For instance, the Kwai Hire show nearly doubled yoy the number of resume submissions daily on average, while its job-matching rate increased more than 20% yoy.

Outlook: we believe Kuaishou will keep optimizing its livestream ecosystem through innovative product formats like Kwai Hire and Ideal Housing to better fulfill user demand across a variety of scenarios.

Foreign markets: ROI-driven strategy; focus on monetization in major regions

Key metrics: revenue from international markets increased 104.1% yoy to RMB1.33bn in 24Q3E, while operating loss of RMB153m represented a 75.9% yoy improvement.

Factors: Kuaishou made breakthroughs in user growth, customer acquisition channel innovations and user processes. DAUs in Brazil increased 9.7% yoy, while DAU time spent increased 4.2% on average in the quarter.

Outlook: under the company’s ROI-growth foreign market model, we believe it will direct resources to countries with a more concentrated user base and mature ecosystem, so as to drive better monetization.