東方甄選(1797 HK): 微信小店有望重新激活東方甄選優勢

文摘   2025-01-08 17:16   广东  

東方甄選

East Buy Holding

(1797 HK)


微信小店有望重新激活東方甄選優勢


WeChat’s new ecommerce feature enhances East Buy’s core competencies

买入(维持评级)

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

我們認為微信小店或為東方甄選發展帶來新的機遇

自東方甄選“小作文”事件發生以來,我們認為東方甄選在業務、邏輯、估值、預期等方面發生較大變化。期間東方甄選深度打磨自營品,提升供應鏈能力,精進線上投放策略; 較好完成流量切換背景下的運營過渡,依舊是一家優秀的產品科技及文化公司。


面對微信電商的新機遇,我們認為東方甄選的競爭力體現在:

1、廣泛的知名度、品牌背書及精準定位。

我們認為,微信電商天然強社交屬性,東方甄選此前經歷多輪輿論事件,天然具備辨識度及信任感; 譬如在送禮物場景,品牌認知度或強於單純性價比,東方甄選的品牌初心“健康、高品質、高質價比”與場景契合度高。


東方甄選已經在應用程式建立並持續提升會員體系,伴隨著客戶增加及復購率提升,會員計劃切實為顧客提供更加優惠產品及更全面的會員服務。


2、具備豐富SKU矩陣,品類選擇度高。

不同於單一品牌提供單一品種,更廣泛的產品領域覆蓋有利於捕捉更多流量轉化機會。


自2022年4月東方甄選推出首款自營產品以來,公司已於兩年內開發並推出了488款SKU的自營產品,從而擴大產品線到更多品類(2023財年: 120款SKU)。公司產品類別已從最初的生鮮食品及零食擴展到更多元化的產品系列。作為快速消費品行業的後起之秀,東方甄選已成功推出多款極具市場競爭力的自營產品,並取得優異表現。迄今為止,公司提供的100多款自營產品已成為抖音品類爆款榜單的前三款產品。


東方甄選聚焦發現未被滿足的消費者需求、建立市場差異化定位、打造強大的品牌知名度、擴大市場覆蓋及曝光度,努力升級和改進產品,並不斷擴大產品類別,打造受歡迎的產品。


我們認為,東方甄選目前具備貨架電商屬性及社交電商能力,東方甄選希望打造成為線上山姆店有望借助變局二次成長。


3、團隊執行力韌性極強,對機會判斷敏銳。

前幾日微信小店送禮物功能灰度測試以來,東方甄選快速響應,發文案引流,響應平台新功能。我們認為,從雙減到東方甄選到抖音出圈到小作文再到微信小店,環境一直變化,但公司團隊對外部變化的判斷適應學習能力值得重視,其是公司成長的核心源動力。


East Buy is not just a platform for independent products and livestream ecommerce, but also a cultural communication company that delivers a favorable user experience. We like the company’s resilience and maintain our BUY call as it embraces new ecommerce opportunities.


The gist: BUY

·East Buy leverages WeChat store opportunities to drive future growth

·Widening visibility, brand endorsements and precise positioning

·Resilient team with strong execution and a keen sense of opportunity


Thesis: East Buy leverages WeChat store opportunities for future growth

East Buy has undergone a major reboot in the wake of the livestream scripting fallout from December 2023, and it has since retuned its business strategy across structure, valuation and expectations. It has revamped its proprietary products, improved supply chain capabilities and realigned online marketing strategies. We believe East Buy has done a good job in driving an operational transition through user traffic changes and maintained an edge in both product technology and its cultural profile.


Three key competencies that enhance market competitiveness

(1) Widening visibility, brand endorsements and precise positioning

·Engagement: the WeChat ecommerce platform comes with strong innately social attributes and as a seasoned online market player, East Buy has achieved market recognition and public trust after weathering past controversies. For instance, its “health, quality and cost-effectiveness” brand philosophy correlates closely with gifting scenarios, where brand awareness trumps cost-effectiveness.

·Membership: East Buy keeps enhancing its membership system in application terms. Its membership plan drives growth in both customer numbers and repurchase rates by providing preferential products and comprehensive member services.


(2) Rich SKU matrix and product range

·Multiple product markets: unlike the flagship brand and single-category model, East Buy’s wide coverage of product markets allows it to capture more user traffic conversion opportunities.

·Proprietary products: since the launch of its first proprietary product in April 2022, East Buy has developed and launched 488 proprietary SKUs within 2 years. It has expanded its product line-up by adding more categories (120 SKUs as of FY23).

·Douyin bestsellers: from fresh foods and snacks, its product categories have expanded to a widely diverse line-up. A rising star in the fast-moving consumer goods segment, a number of East Buy’s highly competitive proprietary product launches have performed well. To date, more than 100 of East Buy’s proprietary products have made it to Douyin’s top three best-seller lists.

·Untapped demand: East Buy tries to identify and fulfill unmet consumer needs by establishing differentiated market positioning. It seeks to raise the brand profile, expand market coverage and exposure, and upgrade its products and extend product categories, while creating more bestsellers.

·Chinese Sam’s Club: we like East Buy’s off-the-shelf ecommerce and social media competencies. As the company reboots and refines its strengths, it hopes to build itself into an online Sam’s Club, which could provide a secondary growth driver.


(3) Resilient team with strong execution and a keen sense of opportunity

·After recent beta tests of the WeChat Mini Program gifting feature, East Buy published posts in real time about the platform’s new features to attract user traffic. The company has undergone major shifts in recent history: from the dual-curbs educational policy in 2021, the rebranding of East Buy, its popularity on Douyin, the livestream scripting controversy and then the WeChat Mini Program store. Through these transitions, the East Buy team’s ability to gauge, adapt and learn from macro challenges is noteworthy, and we believe it is this core resilience that drives the company’s growth.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持買入評級

東方甄選定位專注為客戶細心甄選優質產品的自營產品及直播電商平台,一家以持續提供「東方甄選」自營農產品為核心產品的優秀產品和科技公司; 以及一家為客戶提供愉快體驗的文化傳播公司。通過提供優質產品及服務,希望為每一名客戶及觀眾貢獻與提供更加美好、健康且高品質的生活。


我們預計公司FY25-27收入分別為74億人民幣、84億人民幣、96億人民幣; 調後歸母凈利潤分別為3.3億人民幣、5.4億人民幣、6.3億人民幣; EPS分別為0.32人民幣/股、0.52人民幣/股、0.61人民幣/股; 對應PE分別為49/30/26x。


Valuation and risks

East Buy positions itself as an independent products and livestream ecommerce platform for carefully curated quality products. We believe its product and technological prowess drives East Buy’s core business of proprietary agricultural products. In addition, it is a cultural communication company that provides a favorable user experience for its clients. The company hopes its premium products and services will facilitate a healthier and higher quality of life for customers in every demographic. We maintain our FY25/26/27E (fiscal year ending May) forecasts at RMB7.4bn/8.4bn/9.6bn revenue and RMB330m/ 540m/630m adjusted net profit. They imply RMB0.32/0.52/0.61 EPS on our 49x/30x/26x PE. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.


風險提示:銷售不及預期,核心高管流失; 收入不及預期; 電商熱度不及預期; 市場競爭激烈。


Risks include: lower-than-expected sales; loss of core executives; lower-than-expected revenues; weaker-than-expected ecommerce traction; and intensifying competition.



Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)


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