裕元集團：12月成長延續穩健，25年表現可期

公司發佈12月數據，12月成長延續穩健

2024年公司製造業務營收12月同比增長13.5%，全年同增11.1%; 寶勝營收12月同增-3.9%，全年同增-8%; 

上市公司整體12月單月營收6.8億美金同增6.9%，全年營收81.82億美金同增3.7%。

我們認為，織造核心邏輯在於不確定中捕捉相對確定性，繼續看好 2025行情演繹; 多客戶佈局可對沖終端零售及週期風險，行業馬太效應有利於頭部供應鏈份額提升，在相對平穩市場中捕捉超額成長機會; 頭部供應鏈優勢通常體現在更優質客戶結構、生產製造管理能力帶來的成本優勢以及多年信任積累等。

公司25年表現可期

公司24年鞋履產品需求大幅提升，且24年以來新增產能穩步上升，製造業務營收持續增長。寶勝雖受多地店鋪客流量疲弱影響，全年營收同比縮減，但公司優化寶勝店效，持續提高直營寶勝店的銷售轉換率，寶勝全渠道銷售仍相對穩健。

另一方面，公司持續致力就製造業務及寶勝推動成本及費用管控措施，帶動運營效率提升，有助於公司整體盈利能力穩健增長。隨著訂單進一步常態化，公司堅信全球鞋履產業首選優質供應商的需求將保持穩健。

公司將會持續增強其經營韌性，打造高度敏捷而靈活的卓越製造營運模式，並檢測情勢變化，推動縱觀全局的產能擴充計劃，以平衡短期強勁需求及產能調度的適配性，並降低新建生產基地的前置投資及現有廠區擴線爬坡週期的潛在影響，強化整體生產效率。

展望未來，公司將持續透過精進其研發創新、數位化、製程重整及自動化能力，以強化其全品類開發製造能力，同時亦與品牌客戶夥伴密切合作並提供高度附加價值的優質產品及創新服務，以及靈活高效產能配置及多元化產能佈局; 於零售業務，公司致力全渠道運營及精緻化零售策略，持續專注數字化轉型，為顧客打造個人化及無縫購物體驗，共同為眾多優質品牌客戶提供端到端的解決方案。

We reckon supply chain leaders like Yue Yuen shine a tad brighter within an uncertain textile manufacturing market. Its multiple-customer portfolio provides a hedge against end-market retail and cyclical risks, while it strengthens ties and beefs up resilience. We maintain our BUY call.

The gist: BUY

· December data show steady revenue growth and full-year growth trend

· Strategic focus: raise business resilience, strengthen tech and customer ties

· Multi-customer portfolio adds hedge vs end-market retail and cyclical risks.

December data release shows steady revenue growth and full-year growth trend

Key data: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (YY) released operating data for Dec 2024 on 10 Jan 2025: 

· Total revenue grew 6.9% yoy to USD684m in December and rose 3.7% to USD8.18bn in 2024;

· Manufacturing: revenue rose 13.5% yoy in December and grew 11.1% yoy in 2024;

· Pou Sheng: revenue declined 3.9% yoy in December and fell 8% in 2024.

2025E outlook: we believe the key theme for the textile manufacturing industry is to capture relative certainty within a generally uncertain market, hence we remain optimistic about the market in 2025E. YY’s multiple-customer portfolio provides a hedge against end-market retail and cyclical risks. As a supply chain leader, it benefits from the Matthew effect in capturing premium growth opportunities during a stable market to expand industry share. Its competitive edge stems from a better customer structure and cost advantages brought by strong production and manufacturing management, and by long years of building customer trust.

Revenue: 

· Total business: demand for the company’s footwear rose strongly in 2024 and YY added new production capacities steadily through the year to drive stable manufacturing revenue growth. 

· Pou Sheng: revenue at retail subsidiary Pou Sheng, however, declined on weak store footfall across many locations in 2024. However, the company maximized store efficiency to improve sales conversion at its directly-operated stores and Pou Sheng maintained stable omnichannel sales.

Costs: the company strove to drill down cost through expense control measures in its manufacturing business, where Pou Sheng’s enhanced operational efficiency contributed to steady profitability growth for YY. The company is convinced that as orders normalize, demand will remain robust for preferred quality suppliers in the global footwear industry.

Strategic focus: raise business resilience, strengthen tech and customer ties

Operations: 

· Nimble business model: YY plans to drive through a highly agile and flexible manufacturing excellence business model that would enable the company to detect situational shifts and enhance its operational resilience. 

· Capacity plan: to enhance production efficiency, YY is pushing a holistic capacity expansion plan to manage strong short-term demand through adaptable capacity scheduling, so as to reduce the potential impact of upfront investment into new production bases and the expansion and ramp-up cycle of its current factories. 

R&D: YY seeks to strengthen its wide-category development and manufacturing capabilities by improving R&D innovations and digitalization, as well as its process reengineering and automation capabilities. 

Brand partners: the company is working closely with its brand partners to provide high-value-added quality products and innovative services, as well as flexible and efficient capacity configurations, in line with a diverse capacity network. 

Retail: in this business, the company would maintain omnichannel operations. Along with a premium retail strategy, YY would focus on digital transformation to create a personalized and seamless shopping experience for customers, as well as jointly provide end-to-end solutions for its many premium brand customers.