敏華控股(1999 HK): 期待內需市場企穩

公司FY25H1收入85億港幣同減7.4%

其中沙發及配套品收入58億港幣同減6%，其中中國市場收入約33億港元，同減15.6%; 床具及配套品收入12億港幣，同減19%; Home集團業務收入3.7億港幣同增25%。

分地區看，中國市場處於消費弱增長，消費者信心相比去年有所下探。公司諸多銷售策略遇阻，從價格端及產品端均很難從根本上提升消費者購買意願。中國市場收入約49.75億港元（佔總收入約60%，不含房地產、商場物業及其他），同減17.2%，人民幣口徑同減16.8%。

隨政策支援力度加大，政府刺激消費決心加強，及針對家居行業首次出台可執行大力度補貼政策，公司表示：相信家居市場需求也將逐步轉暖回升，電商也出現復甦增長趨勢，期待內銷市場拐點將至。

公司今年重點進行門店同店增長梳理，使門店運營更加精細和健康。根據敏華在全國城市門店佈局及今年經濟和消費市場現狀，公司偏重開拓下沉市場門店及新增一二線城市性價比系列，於2024年9月30日公司在中國總共擁有7516間品牌專賣店（不包含格調和蘇寧門店），於回顧期內，實現專賣店店鋪數目凈增長280間。

海外方面，公司積極參展，拓展新渠道新客戶，重塑銷售隊伍的人才建設，加強了出口新產品研發及升級迭代，過去半年海外市場需求及訂單恢復較為明顯，回顧期內北美銷量增長約18%，但因布藝沙發訂單增多及部分客戶由到岸價轉為離岸價銷售模式等結構變化，使北美平均售價減少約10%，但由於已售商品成本減少，故對毛利率並無影響。

公司北美市場收入約21.54億港元，同增5.7%，歐洲及其他海外市場收入約7.33億港元，同增37.7%。Home集團收入得益於歐洲市場訂單增長同增24.5%至約3.71億港元。

FY25H1公司歸母凈利11.4億港幣同增0.3%，凈利率約13.7%（FY24H1約為12.7%）。

海外及國內市場環境有望改善

集團在全球的業務佈局，將使公司面臨未來的不確定環境中具有更穩健的優勢。北美市場目前仍是功能沙發的主要消費市場，目前市場需求良好; 公司訂單增長持續優勢明顯，且歐洲及其他出口市場仍有較大開拓空間。

公司利用全球化的產能供給、優良產品品質和成本優勢，積極加強市場渠道拓展，抓住出海紅利，進一步擴大出口市場份額。

對比2023年，中國市場功能沙發滲透率快速提升，從去年7.2%增長至9.7%，經歐睿國際預測五年內有望突破13%。隨著新房及二手房交易逐步回歸正常居住屬性，目前軟體行業逐步轉變為存量市場為增長核心的新局面，公司預計智慧家居未來會成為市場主流，企業核心競爭力逐步從重渠道轉變為產品及品牌競爭。

Moving on from a lackluster fiscal first-half, Man Wah believes a structural demand shift could help turn around the China market. North America is its main market for functional sofas but their appeal is growing in China, while European markets hold much growth potential. We maintain our BUY call.

The gist: BUY

·FY25H1E revenue down 7.4% yoy on sluggish Chinese growth; flat net profit

·Export revenues: N America up 6%; Europe up 38%; Home Group up 25% yoy

·Outlook: functional sofas stable in NA; growth potential in China, Europe

FY25H1E revenue fell 7.4% yoy on sluggish growth in the Chinese market

Man Wah Holdings reported unaudited FY25H1E (the fiscal half-year ended September 2024) results:

·Top line: total revenue arrived at HKD8.5bn, down 7.4% yoy; contributed by:

-Sofas and accessories at HKD5.8bn, down 6% yoy, of which the Chinese market fell 15.6% yoy to HKD3.3bn;

-Beds and accessories at HKD1.2bn, down 19% yoy; while

-Home Group subsidiary generated HKD370m, up 25% yoy.

·Bottom line: net profit was HKD1.14bn, up 0.3% yoy, with net margin at about 13.7% (vs 12.7% a year ago).

China market: SSSg tweaks, better operational standards and financial health

Operations: Man Wah firmed same-store-sales growth and optimized its city store network across China this year in efforts to better navigate the economic and consumer climate. It developed stores in lower-tier cities, while adding cost-effective product line-ups in the first and second-tier cities. It has 7,516 branded stores across China as of 30 Sep 2024 (excluding Style and Suning stores). Branded stores net increased by 280 in the first-half of FY25.

Financial metrics: revenue from the domestic market fell 17.2% yoy to HKD4.98bn (contributing about 60% of total revenue, excluding real estate sales and shopping mall leases and such business); or down 16.8% yoy in RMB terms. Man Wah found it difficult to raise purchaser willingness through either price or product, and met with obstacles in many of its sales strategies. It attributes weak consumption growth to lower consumer confidence than last year.

Policy support: to stimulate consumption, the Chinese government introduced enforceable large-scale subsidy policies for the first time in the furniture industry.

Outlook: management believes demand in the furniture industry “will pick up and recover”. The company also notes its ecommerce business is on a trend of recovery and growth, and expects the Chinese market will reach an inflection point.

Export revenues: North America up 6%; Europe up 38%; Home Group up 25% yoy

Demand recovery: in the first half of FY25, the company took part in exhibitions, added new channels and new customers, reshaped the talent profile of its sales team, and strengthened R&D and upgrade iteration of new products for its export markets. Global market demand and orders recovered strongly as North America sales volume increased about 18%, but ASP fell by about 10% on structural changes as orders for fabric sofas increased and some cost-insurance-freight customers switched to the free-on-board sales model. However, gross margin was not impacted due to lower cost of goods sold.

Segmental revenues:

·North America: HKD2.15bn revenue, up 5.7% yoy.

·Europe and other foreign markets: HKD733m revenue, up 37.7% yoy.

·Home Group: HKD371m revenue, up 24.5% yoy as Man Wah’s Luxembourg-based subsidiary saw increased orders from Europe.

Outlook: functional sofa demand stable in NA; growth potential in China, Europe

Stable NA demand: Man Wah’s global network provides strength and stability advantages in the face of future market uncertainties. North America remains its main consumer market for functional sofas and is currently showing good demand. While the company has a clear edge in terms of sustainable orders here, Europe and other foreign markets hold much growth potential.

Globalized production: the company is leveraging its global production capacities, excellent product quality and cost advantage to expand market channels, capitalize on its global footprint and expand its export market share.

Product edge: the penetration of functional sofas in the Chinese market has deepened from 7.2% last year to 9.7% currently. Euromonitor International predicts the rate will exceed 13% within 5 years. As new residential housing and resale transactions return to normal, Man Wah believes the home furnishing market is transitioning from being real estate-driven to being driven primarily by replacement demand. The company expects smart homes will be the mainstream market in the future and that competitive drivers among key manufacturers will shift from a channel focus to product and brand.