安踏體育:全力迎接2025

文摘   2025-01-16 19:05   广东  

安踏體育

ANTA Sports Products

(2020 HK)


全力迎接2025

24Q4 update indicates Anta is in good shape for 2025E as its strategic global buildout paces steadily

买入(维持评级)

BUY (maintain)


投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

FILA 24Q4表現亮眼

公司發佈24Q4經營數據,安踏品牌Q4和全年流水同比均錄得高單位數增長; 

FILA品牌Q4流水同比錄得高單位數增長,全年流水同比錄得中單位數增長,FILA 24Q4 增速顯著回暖;

其他品牌Q4流水同比增長50-55%,全年流水同比增長40-45%。


電商平臺持續領跑,雙11總成交額再奪行業第一

公司順應市場趨勢,推廣熱門產品提升品牌聲譽,推動電商業務保持較快增長。 雙11全週期,安踏集團總成交額超111億元。 在天貓平台,安踏、斐樂、迪桑特三大品牌全部進入運動鞋服類目TOP10,可隆則進入戶外鞋服類目TOP5; 抖音平台,安踏、斐樂均進入運動鞋服類目TOP5。


“超級安踏”成效顯著,預計25年將實現較大突破

2024年「超級安踏」已經開出45家店,並計劃於2025年開160家。 “超級安踏”試跑門店調整后的店效已經達到普通門店的3倍。 DTC對於「超級安踏」的推動起重要作用,截至2024H1,中國超80%的安踏及安踏兒童門店已採用DTC模式。

公司採用混合運營模式靈活應對市場變化,充分發揮不同品牌的優勢和定位。 批發模式及安踏DTC模式下的加盟業務,利用分銷商和加盟商通過授權零售店銷售; 安踏DTC模式下的自營業務及FILA和其他品牌下的直營零售模式,通過直營零售店銷售,能夠提升對消費者需求變化的敏感度。


全球化戰略穩步推進

公司已在多個海外核心商圈成功開展直營零售業務,並加快東南亞零售市場佈局及渠道擴張。 未來公司將戰略性布局東南亞、北美、歐洲、中東及非洲等全球重要市場。

公司的全球化戰略建立在深入的市場洞察基礎上,針對不同消費市場的獨特消費習慣和偏好開展佈局,深化本土化運營。


As FILA’s quarterly sales growth trend rebounded in 24Q4, Anta Sports Products’ global buildout advanced with product launches in key business districts in Southeast Asia, a strategic core market alongside North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. We maintain our BUY call.


The gist: BUY

· 2024 and 24Q4 update: FILA rebounded in Q4 in yoy sales growth terms

· Double-11: ecommerce platforms outperformed in transaction volume terms

· Global expansion advances with launches in SE Asian business districts


2024 and 24Q4 business update: FILA’s Q4 yoy sales growth rebounded vs Q3

Anta Sports Products released 24Q4 operating data on 8 Jan 2025:

· ANTA: sales at the main brand grew by high-single digits yoy in both Q4 and 2024.

· FILA sales growth rebounded at a high-single digit yoy in Q4 (vs a dip in Q3), while it registered a mid-single digit in 2024.

· Other brands (excluding those that joined after 1 Jan 2023): Q4 sales increased 50-55% yoy and full-year sales rose 40-45%.


Double-11: ecommerce platforms outperformed in transaction volume terms

Anta raised its brand profile by riding market trends to promote its best-selling products, which helped the ecommerce business maintain fast growth. Total transaction volume shot past RMB11.1bn at the Double-11 shopping promotions in November:

· On the Tmall platform: Anta brands ANTA, FILA and Descente were among the top ten brands in footwear and apparel listings, while Kolon was placed among the top five in outdoor shoes and apparel listings.

· Douyin (TikTok in China): ANTA and FILA were listed among the top five brands in the platform’s sports shoes and apparel categories.


Direct-to-consumer business model drives up efficiency at ANTA Superstores

ANTA Superstores: the company opened 45 ANTA Superstores in 2024 and plans for 160 by 2025E. Compared with standard ANTA stores, Anta says the pilot ANTA Superstores have 3x better adjusted store efficiency, where its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business model plays a key role. Hence, more than 80% of ANTA and ANTA Kid stores in China operate under a DTC model as of 24H1.


Hybrid model: to manage its different brands, Anta uses a hybrid business model, which enables flexible responses to market changes and allows better play of each brand’s strengths and positioning.


Direct-to-consumer model:

· The wholesale and franchised businesses operate under the DTC model, where distributors and franchisees sell through authorized retail stores.

· Anta’s directly-run business also uses the DTC model as mentioned above, as do FILA and the other brands. One key reason is that direct retail stores enhance the company’s responsiveness to changes in consumer demand.


Global expansion drive advances with launches in SE Asian business districts

Anta accelerated its global direct retail business buildout and expanded its channels with a series of launches in a number of key foreign business districts in Southeast Asia, one of the core markets in its global expansion strategy, along with North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Using in-depth market insights, development of the global strategy is based on each market’s unique consumer behavior and preferences, as the company establishes localized operations.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


維持盈利預測,維持“買入”評級

我們預計公司2024-2026年收入分別為701億元人民幣、785億元人民幣、868億元人民幣; 歸母凈利分別為134億元人民幣(含一次性收益)、132億元人民幣、146億元人民幣; EPS分別為4.7元人民幣/股、4.7元人民幣/股、5.2元人民幣/股; 對應PE分別為17x、17x、15x。


Valuation and risks

We maintain our forecast with revenue at RMB70.1bn/78.5bn/86.8bn in 2024/25/26E, and net profit at RMB13.4bn (including one-off gains)/13.2bn/14.6bn; implying EPS of RMB4.7/4.7/5.2, with our PE at 17x/17x/15x. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示:市場競爭加劇; 新品市場接受度不及預期; 終端消費不及預期風險等


Risks include: intensifying competition; new products achieve lower market acceptance than expected; and lower end-market consumption than expected.




Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)


文件由天風國際證券集團有限公司天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:BAV573)及天風國際資產管理有限公司(證監會中央編號:ASF056)(合稱“天風國際集團”)編制,所載資料可能以若干假設為基礎,僅供作非商業用途及參考之用途,會因經濟、市場及其他情況而隨時更改而毋須另行通知。任何媒體、網站或個人未經授權不得轉載、連結、轉貼或以其他方式複製發表本檔及任何內容。已獲授權者,在使用本檔或任何內容時必須注明稿件來源於天風國際集團,並承諾遵守相關法例及一切使用的國際慣例,不為任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本檔,違者將依法追究相關法律責任。本檔所引用之資料或資料可能得自協力廠商,天風國際集團將盡可能確認資料來源之可靠性,但天風國際集團並不對協力廠商所提供資料或資料之準確性負責。且天風國際集團不會就本檔所載任何資料、預測及/或意見的公平性、準確性、時限性、完整性或正確性,以及任何該等預測及/或意見所依據的基準作出任何明文或暗示的保證、陳述、擔保或承諾而負責或承擔任何法律責任。本檔中如有類似前瞻性陳述之內容,此等內容或陳述不得視為對任何將來表現之保證,且應注意實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。本檔並非及不應被視為邀約、招攬、邀請、建議買賣任何投資產品或投資決策之依據,亦不應被詮釋為專業意見。閱覽本文件的人士或在作出任何投資決策前,應完全瞭解其風險以及有關法律、賦稅及會計的特點及後果,並根據個人的情況決定投資是否切合個人的投資目標,以及能否承擔有關風險,必要時應尋求適當的專業意見。投資涉及風險。敬請投資者注意,證券及投資的價值可升亦可跌,過往的表現不一定可以預示日後的表現。在若干國家,傳閱及分派本檔的方式可能受法律或規例所限制。獲取本檔的人士須知悉及遵守該等限制。


天风国际
天风国际是天风证券境外全资子公司,立志于成为全球资产配置专家,用我们的专业专注力连接中外,为海内外客户寻找最优质资产和提供最专业的投资咨询。
 最新文章