高途集團
Gaotu Techedu
(GOTU US)
收入及收現加速成長
24Q3E takeaways: high demand for summer courses drove up both revenue and cash flow growth
买入(维持评级) BUY (maintain) |
投資要點/Investment Thesis
投資要點/Investment Thesis
發佈FY24Q3財報,收入加速增長,現金收入同比大幅增長
高途FY24Q3收入12.08億,同增53.1%,現金收入10.69億,同增67.2%。
高途FY24Q1-3收入31.65億,同增43.9%,現金收入34.52億,同增67.5%。
本季,公司核心業務保持穩步推進,現金收款及收入增長得益於對市場趨勢精準把握,以及持續優化的業務佈局和戰略執行能力。隨著業務規模快速擴展以及產品矩陣的逐步豐富,公司在教學體系升級、組織能力強化和管理水準提升等各個關鍵領域的投入也有所增加。
公司對股東回報高度重視,本季度投入超過1.2億用於股票回購。截至2024年9月30日,公司持有現金、現金等價物、受限資金及長短期投資合計達到33.1億,為公司戰略佈局和未來增長提供了堅實保障。
在過去一個季度,公司積極滿足暑期旺盛的學習需求,成功實現高增速下的現金收入目標,推動在讀人次與市場份額實現有意義的增長。伴隨著在讀人次持續提升,公司收入增速在過去三個季度間逐季加快。
截至2024年9月30日,公司遞延收入餘額14.4億,同增89.0%,公司預計第四季迎來年度收入同比增速峰值。公司預測FY24Q4收入12.88至13.08億人民幣,同比增幅69.2%至71.9%。
優化產品與服務 線上線下共同發展
高途始終堅守教育初心,始終把教學品質放在發展首位,在非學科類素質教育等針對K12群體的學習服務、大學生和成人成長學習以及出國留學考試、諮詢等各業務領域,優選匯聚行業名師,同時加大師資培養投入,通過系統化培訓,全力打造“高途好老師”。
同時,為進一步提升教育品質,高途大力推動教學教研工作,針對每一門課程,教研團隊都會進行詳盡的課程設計和反覆的課程試講,以確保每一堂課都能達到最佳效果。
在滿足個人化需求方面,高途高度重視二講老師對學生的關懷與指導。通過深入瞭解學生學習習慣、目標和痛點,二講老師能夠精準進行學情規劃和分析,提供針對性的答疑和重點內容講解。
在不斷夯實線上業務優勢的基礎上,高途積極拓展線下業務。通過線下與線上業務的相互融合、相互促進、共同發展,在課程方面滿足全年齡段的學習需求。
Gaotu’s business scale has risen quickly while it gradually implemented measures to enrich its product matrix, increasing long-term investments into key areas like the teaching system, operational efficiencies and administrative standards. We adjust our forecast and maintain our BUY call.
The gist: BUY
·24Q3E revenue growth picked up; gross billings rose strongly yoy
·Q4E guidance: Gaotu expects revenue growth will peak at 69.2-71.9% yoy
·Strategic optimization: online and offline business integration
24Q3E revenue growth picked up; gross billings rose strongly yoy
Gaotu Techedu released unaudited results for 24Q3E earlier this month:
Revenue:
·Q3E: Gaotu posted RMB1.21bn revenue for the third quarter, up 53.1% yoy, while gross billings increased 67.2% yoy to RMB1.07bn.
·24M9E: revenue rose 43.9% yoy to RMB3.17bn over the first three quarters, while gross billings grew to RMB3.45bn, up 67.5% yoy.
Long-haul investments: both revenue and gross billings in the core business grew steadily in the third quarter on a precise grasp of market trends, as well as optimization of the business structure and strategic execution capabilities. As business scale expanded quickly and the company implemented measures gradually to enrich its product matrix, Gaotu increased investments into key areas such as upgrading the teaching system, strengthening its organizational capabilities and enhancing management standards.
Student enrollments: high demand for summer courses enabled Gaotu to meet its gross billings target in Q3, on strong growth in both student enrollments and market share. Revenue growth accelerated qoq in the past three quarters as the student intake increased.
Share repurchases: Gaotu prioritized shareholder returns and bought back more than RMB120m of its own shares during the third quarter.
Ample cash: the company’s cash reserves amounted to RMB3.31bn as of 30 Sep 2024, consisting of cash and cash equivalents, restricted funds, and both long-term and short-term investments. These supported Gaotu’s strategic buildout and growth.
Strong Q4E revenue guidance: deferred revenue increased 89.0% yoy to RMB1.44bn as of 30 Sep 2024. Gaotu expects the annual revenue growth trend will peak in Q4E, with revenue expected to range RMB1.29bn-1.31bn, up 69.2-71.9% yoy.
Strategic optimization: online and offline business integration
Talent development and acquisition: Gaotu places teaching quality at the top of its business development priorities and continually seeks teachers with industry renown who would strengthen its business across the board: from non-academic courses and services for K-12 students to development courses for college students and adults, as well as study-abroad consultation services and entrance exam prep programs. The company increased investments to drive systematic teaching training for its Gaotu Good Teachers initiative.
Teaching and research: Gaotu is pushing to enhance the quality of its programs in this area. For every course it offers, its teaching and research teams work on course design and conduct trial lectures to ensure the best results.
Auxiliary teachers: under a two-teacher system, which has become common in the education technology sector, students experience learning in an integrated online and offline environment, where a senior educator delivers core lectures online to students via livestreaming, while an onsite auxiliary teacher provides more personalized care and guidance. Gaotu values the role of the auxiliary teachers, whose close interaction with students allows them to understand their learning behavior, goals and hitches. They provide invaluable support in different ways: explaining key content, helping students develop study management skills, as well as providing counseling. Their role also provides a feedback source for Gaotu in facilitating more effective course planning and precise assessments of its product offerings.
O2O integration: while Gaotu is consolidating its online business advantages, it is also expanding the offline business. O2O development, integration and promotion enable the company to create courses that better meet the learning needs of students of all ages.
投資建議/Investment Ideas
投資建議: 調整盈利預測,維持買入評級
由於業務規模快速擴展以及產品矩陣的逐步豐富,公司在教學體系升級、組織能力強化和管理水平提升等各個關鍵領域的投入也有所增加; 基於24Q1-3公司收入及業績表現,我們調整盈利預測:
預計FY24-26收入分別為44億人民幣、56億人民幣、70億人民幣(原值為42.93億人民幣、57.96億人民幣、72.4億人民幣); 淨利分別為-10.67億人民幣、-3.5億人民幣、0.93億人民幣(原值為0.3億人民幣、0.9億人民幣、1.98億人民幣); EPS分別為-4.2元人民幣/股、-1.4元人民幣/股、0.4元人民幣/股(原值為0.17元人民幣/股、0.52元人民幣/股、1.15元人民幣/股)。
Valuation and risks
Gaotu has increased investments into critical areas, such as upgrading the teaching system, strengthening its organizational capabilities and raising its management standards, to drive rapid business upscaling while it gradually enriches its product matrix. Factoring in 24Q1-Q3 revenue and profits, we adjusted our forecast for 2024/25/26E revenue to RMB4.4bn/5.6bn/7.0bn (previously RMB4.30bn/5.80bn/7.24bn) and net earnings to RMB-1.07bn/-350m/+93m (previously RMB30m/90m/198m). These correspond to EPS at RMB-4.2/-1.4/+0.4 (previously RMB0.17/0.52/1.15). We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
風險提示:流量成本加大,市場競爭激烈,核心高管流失
Risks include: rising traffic costs; fierce market competition; and loss of core executives.
Email: research@tfisec.com
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