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Finance Takeaway
中国金融聚焦
CN
中国存量房贷政策调整：平衡经济刺激与金融稳定
随着新旧房贷利率差距扩大，市场对调整存量房贷利率的存在明显期待。据报道，央行正在考虑允许存量房贷转按揭，并进一步下调存量房贷利率，以提振房地产市场和消费需求。
当前，存量房贷平均利率约为4.1%，而新发放房贷平均利率仅为3.3%，部分大城市甚至降至2.9%左右。业内人士估计，存量房贷利率可能下调约100个基点。这一举措旨在缓解居民负担，刺激消费，但同时也将对银行业造成显著影响。瑞银预测，如果实施该政策，可能导致银行息差下降11个基点，净利润下降超过10%。为了平衡经济刺激和金融稳定，监管层可能采取分步骤调整策略。据国际媒体报道，中国正考虑分两步降低约5.3万亿美元房贷利率，总计降低约80个基点。第一次调整可能在未来几周内实施，第二次则可能在明年年初生效。
然而，实施细节仍有待确定，包括是否允许业主与原贷款行重新协商利率，或将贷款转至其他银行。值得注意的是，中国银行业已经面临利润压力，为了对冲政策影响，银行可能需要下调存款利率，这又可能影响储户利益。
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China's Mortgage Policy Adjustment Must Balance Economic Stimulus and Financial Stability
As the gap between old and new mortgage rates has widened, there has been growing market expectation that existing mortgage rates may come in for some adjustment. Reports suggest that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is considering allowing existing mortgages to be refinanced while further lowering mortgage rates to boost the real estate market and stimulate consumer demand.
Currently, the average interest rate on existing mortgages stands at approximately 4.1 per cent, while new mortgages are being offered at an average rate of just 3.3 per cent, with some major cities seeing rates drop as low as 2.9 per cent. Industry insiders estimate that interest rates on existing mortgages could be reduced by around 100 basis points. This policy move is aimed at alleviating financial burdens on households and encouraging consumption, but it is expected to have a notable impact on the banking sector. UBS predicts that, if implemented, the policy could lead to an 11-basis-point decline in banks' net interest margins and a more than 10 per cent drop in net profits.
To balance the need for economic stimulus with financial stability, the PBoC may opt for a phased adjustment strategy. According to international media reports, China is considering reducing mortgage rates on approximately $5.3 trillion worth of loans by a total of 80 basis points over two phases. The first adjustment may take place in the coming weeks, with the second likely to be implemented early next year.
However, specific details of the policy implementation are still under discussion, including whether homeowners will be permitted to renegotiate rates with their original lenders or transfer their loans to other banks. It is also worth noting that China’s banking sector is already experiencing profit pressures. To mitigate the impact of this policy, banks may need to lower deposit rates, which could, in turn, affect the interests of depositors.
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Sandpiper is a strategic communications and public affairs consultancy that supports clients in understanding China’s dynamic policy environment through monitoring, reports, and timely alerts. For any business inquiries about stakeholder and issue mapping, expanding government outreach, and cultivating media relations, or any other services, please email beijing@sandpipercomms.com.
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This material has been prepared by Sandpiper, a strategic communications and public affairs consultancy, in the belief that it is fair and not misleading. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified; we do not guarantee its accuracy. This communication is being provided for informational purposes only.
