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Green China
绿色中国要闻
CN
降低出口退税能防“内卷”吗？
在此前的绿色中国专栏中，我们曾提到，中国的光伏和风电巨头们正频繁碰头，试图通过协商限制产能和价格的方式“反内卷”。不过在企业在国内市场达成一致之前，政府先“出手”调整出口退税规则，可能会导致部分企业在海外涨价，变相结束价格战。
11月15日，中国财政部发布《关于调整出口退税政策的公告》，自2024年12月1日起，取消铝材、铜材等产品退税，并将部分光伏、电池等产品的出口退税率由13%下调至9%。总共将有268类产品受到影响。
初步分析指出，此次退税调整并不会给中央财政带来可观的收入，更应被看成是政府的一项产业政策与贸易工具。首先，此次调整有望淘汰一批仅靠出口退税为生的低端企业和产能。其次，有意见认为，此举乃是中央在光伏等产业“卷”到海外，各国“剑指”中国出口的大背景下，通过提高企业出口成本来迫使中国企业在海外市场提高价格，平息贸易争端的压力。
这一调整具体会对中国光伏、锂电行业的企业带来什么样的影响？业界普遍认为，四个百分点的退税额不会显著冲击行业龙头企业的利润和市场地位，不过势必会加速他们在海外布局建厂的速度。
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Controlling the export of “neijuan”
In earlier Green China posts, we discussed how Chinese solar PV and wind turbine firms have sought to curb unhealthy competition by reaching preliminary agreements on production schedules and minimum pricing. While the companies themselves have not yet come to a consensus, the Chinese government is intervening by changing export tax rules. These changes will make exporting more expensive, which is likely to force companies to raise prices in foreign markets.
On 15 November, the Ministry of Finance (MOT) announced that it would end VAT tax rebates for the export of aluminium and copper semi-manufactured products, while also reducing the rebate rate from 13 to 9 per cent for exports of lithium batteries, silicon wafers, solar cells and panels. The rebate cuts and cancellations, effective from 1 December, affect a broader range of products – a total of 268 categories.
Initial projections indicate that the tax adjustment will not generate substantial revenue for the Chinese government. Instead, this move should be interpreted in light of industrial and trade policies. Firstly, it is likely to weed out uncompetitive companies that rely heavily on tax rebates for their profit margins. Secondly, as companies find themselves having to raise prices to offset their lost tax rebates, analysts see this as Beijing’s attempt to control the price war sparked by Chinese companies in international markets – most notably, and notoriously, in the solar PV sector. Amid the widespread criticism that foreign governments have directed at Chinese exports, the symbolic importance of this action should not be overlooked.
How will China's green champions be affected? Experts believe the dominance of Chinese battery and solar PV companies in the global market is unlikely to be significantly impacted by a mere four per cent tax hike. Nevertheless, the higher export costs this entails will likely motivate these companies to ramp up their overseas manufacturing operations across different markets.
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Sandpiper 基誉公关
Sandpiper is a strategic communications and public affairs consultancy that supports clients in understanding China’s dynamic policy environment through monitoring, reports, and timely alerts. For any business inquiries about stakeholder and issue mapping, expanding government outreach, and cultivating media relations, or any other services, please email beijing@sandpipercomms.com.
基誉公关是一家战略传播和公共事务咨询公司。我们通过政策监测、解读和预警，帮助客户实时追踪、理解中国的政策动态和市场环境。如需了解利益相关方和议题规划、扩展政府人脉、媒体关系，或者有任何其他业务咨询，请发送邮件至beijing@sandpipercomms.com。
This material has been prepared by Sandpiper, a strategic communications and public affairs consultancy, in the belief that it is fair and not misleading. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified; we do not guarantee its accuracy. This communication is being provided for informational purposes only.
