中国电车在欧盟市场的机会又来了？

中国电动汽车在欧盟市场的命运正掌握在欧盟各国领导人的手中。欧盟理事会原定于9月25日就中国电动车加征关税的最终决定进行投票，但因近日中欧双方宣布正就关税问题展开谈判，投票预计将推迟到10月。值得注意的是，德国和西班牙的领导人近期都公开提出，建议欧盟重新考虑对从中国进口电动车的惩罚性关税。

自7月开征临时关税以来，中国电动车在欧盟的销量大幅下跌，八月的销量比起六月降低60%以上。这样大幅度的波动也和欧盟汽车市场的普遍疲软有关。八月，欧盟汽车销售同比下降18.3%，其中纯电车型下降43.9%，插混车型下降22.3%。

电动汽车市场不振，也让欧洲汽车巨头们重新审视自身的电动化转型计划。梅赛德斯、大众、沃尔沃等集团都表示要撤回此前雄心勃勃的电动车销售计划。欧盟本土电池企业也是步履维艰。“全村的希望”瑞典Northvolt刚刚宣布要裁员1600人；斯特兰蒂斯、道达尔能源、梅赛德斯合资成立的ACC公司也于今年暂停了德国和意大利的建厂计划。宁德时代董事长更是直指，欧洲电池企业在设计、工艺流程及设备方面都存在不足。

这么看来，关税之忧有缓解的希望，欧洲同行则“内功”羸弱，不堪与中国企业一争高下。这是否意味着中国电车和电池企业在欧洲的前途“多云转晴”？实际上中国企业仍然要在欧洲市场面临关税安排、碳排放约束、消费者购买力等多重挑战，长期保持高利润率的可能性不大。强化本地运营、携手本土企业，才是在欧洲市场长盛不衰的关键——这也正是外国车企过去二十年间在中国的成功之道。

The Council of the European Union is getting ready for a vital vote on tariffs imposed against Chinese electric vehicle imports. The vote, originally planned for September 25, has been postponed due to ongoing discussions between the Chinese and EU governments, specifically regarding a potential price undertaking by Chinese manufacturers. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have both recently called for European leaders to reconsider their positions on tariffs.

As a result of the temporary tariffs, Chinese EV sales have already suffered, experiencing a reduction of over 60 per cent in August, compared to June. The decrease can also be attributed to a general decline in automobile sales across Europe. In August, the EU observed an 18.3 per cent year-on-year decline in overall new car sales, with EV sales dropping sharply by 43.9 per cent, while plug-in hybrids fell by 22.3 per cent.

The current state of the EV market is already having significant repercussions on European auto and EV battery manufacturers. This year, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Volvo have all scaled back their initial EV strategies, which had been fairly ambitious.

Conditions have been even more challenging for battery manufacturers. Swedish battery giant Northvolt announced a plan for 1,600 layoffs in September, while the Automotive Cells Company – a joint venture between Stellantis, TotalEnergies, and Mercedes-Benz – has decided to halt construction on two sites in Germany and Italy this year. During a recent discussion, CATL’s chairman Robin Zeng remarked on the overall standard of European battery manufacturers, highlighting a range of deficiencies in design, process, and equipment quality.

Given the ongoing negotiations between China and the EU, coupled with the underwhelming performance of European counterparts, is it possible that Chinese EV and battery manufacturers could enjoy a more promising future in the European market?

Regardless of the circumstances, Chinese manufacturers are likely to face significant challenges in maintaining a high profit margin in Europe. This is down to several factors, including tariff settlements, carbon emissions regulations, and low consumer confidence. To achieve sustained growth in the European market, it is crucial to adopt localised operations and establish partnerships with local players, just as global automobile brands have done successfully in China over the last 20 years.