6+4+2，中国出台近年来力度最大化债举措

受此前增量政策逐步生效的影响，中国10月份制造业PMI为50.1%，比上月上升0.3个百分点。高盛在10月将中国2024年GDP增长预测上调至4.9%，并将2025年的预测值提升至4.7%。在10月12日的国新办新闻发布会上，中国财政部长蓝佛安明确表示“中央财政还有较大的赤字提升空间”，暗示将推出新一轮刺激政策。有市场分析预期新的刺激政策规模将超过十万亿人民币，将聚焦化解地方债、提振房地产市场和促进消费等领域。

11月8日，人大常委会召开发布会，宣布将地方政府债务限额增加6万亿元，用于置换存量隐性债务。新增债务限额全部为专项债务限额，分三年实施。按照此安排，2024年末地方政府专项债务限额将从29.52万亿元增至35.52万亿元。此外，从2024年开始，连续五年每年从新增地方政府专项债券中安排8000亿元，专门用于化解债务，此举累计可置换隐性债务4万亿元。与此同时，对于2万亿元棚户区改造隐性债务，不再要求在2028年底前全部偿还，而是按照原先合同在2029年及之后偿还。

这次隐性债务置换，基本上实现了隐性债务显性化，债务更加公开透明规范。财政部的目标是在2028年之前将地方隐性债务总额从14.3万亿元大幅降至2.3万亿元，平均每年化债额从2.86万亿元减少至4600亿元，不到原来的六分之一。

在特朗普当选美国总统的背景下，中国的进出口贸易或将在明年面临挑战，政府需寻找内部机遇以维持经济稳步增长。蓝佛安表示，中国政府负债率（67.5%）显著低于主要经济体和新兴市场国家（G20平均负债率约118.2%）。尽管备受期待的稳定房地产与促消费的增量政策并未同步推出，但结合中央表态，可以预期明年财政力度有进一步加强的空间。作为“十五五”计划的前瞻性会议，今年12月的中央经济工作会议和明年召开的两会能否传递强而有力的未来财政政策和经济策略将尤为关键。

Driven by the gradual fruition of recent incremental policies, China’s Manufacturing PMI reached 50.1 per cent in October, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has raised China’s 2024 GDP growth projections to 4.9 per cent and increased its 2025 forecast to 4.7 per cent.

During a State Council press conference on 12 October, China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an pointed out that “the central government still has significant room for a larger deficit”, hinting at the introduction of a new round of stimulus policies. Market analysts predicted that the scale of these new stimulus measures could exceed RMB 10 trillion, focusing on a range of areas including local debt resolution, the real estate market, and consumption.The following month saw a continuation of stimulus measures. On 8 November, the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee announced it would increase the local government debt limit by RMB 6 trillion, specifically to address the problem of so-called ‘hidden’ debt, which local governments had been accumulating. This additional debt limit is entirely allocated toward special-purpose debt and will be phased in over a three-year period, raising the limit on local government special bonds from RMB 29.52 trillion at the end of 2024 to RMB 35.52 trillion. Starting in 2024, an annual allocation of RMB 800 billion in new special bonds will target debt reduction for five consecutive years. This strategy is expected to retire some RMB 4 trillion in ‘hidden’ debt. Meanwhile, repayment terms for the RMB 2 trillion of implicit debt racked up through shantytown renovation projects have been extended into 2029 and beyond.

This arrangement essentially renders implicit debt explicit, making the debt structure more transparent and regulated. The Ministry of Finance aims to reduce ‘hidden’ local government debt from RMB 14.3 trillion to RMB 2.3 trillion by 2028, lowering annual debt service obligations from RMB 2.86 trillion to just RMB 460 billion – less than one-sixth of the current level.

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to head back to the White House in the new year, China’s global trade relations are expected to face greater challenges. The country must seek new growth engines domestically if it hopes to reinvigorate its economy and maintain a healthy development trajectory. There are some reasons to be hopeful. Lan Fo’an noted that, at 67.5 per cent, China’s government debt ratio is significantly lower than that of other major economies and emerging markets (the average debt ratio for the G20 is approximately 118.2 per cent).

Although the anticipated incremental policies for stabilising the real estate market and promoting consumption have not yet been implemented, recent central government statements indicate room for stronger fiscal policy over the coming year. Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan, due to kick off in 2026, this December’s Central Economic Work Conference and next year’s Two Sessions will be particularly crucial for setting out strong and effective fiscal and economic strategies for the future.