2024年终回顾
A letter from Global Editor, Adam Smith 2024
2024这一年，希望破灭，期望落空。经历过地缘政治紧张局势升级、通货膨胀加剧、商业形势严峻的2023年，一些评论家预见在春天绽放的萌芽仍被土壤牢牢掩埋。
2024. A year when hopes were dashed – expectations unmet. After tough business conditions in 2023, characterised by escalating geopolitical tension and inflation, the green shoots which some commentators foresaw blossoming in the spring remained buried firmly under soil.
但有一个预测的确实现，那就是贸易案的升级。2024年，中国钢铁出口继续增长，预计将达到自2015年突破1.12亿吨以来的最高水平。这是因为在建筑业持续低迷的情况下，中国国内需求继续放缓，从而导致钢材消费减少。2024年，中国的钢铁产量有所下降，但降幅不大。这一年发起的一系列贸易案主要针对中国钢材，但在欧盟的案件中，打击的矛头直指其他亚洲原产地，因为这些原产地的钢材供应被中国的钢材供应取代。
One forecast that did materialise, emphatically, was for an escalation in trade cases. Chinese steel exports continued to grow in 2024 and are expected to reach their highest level since surpassing 112 million tonnes in 2015. This came as Chinese domestic demand continued to slow amid persistent construction sector woes, thereby absorbing less steel. Chinese production is on course to decline in 2024, but only slightly. The swathe of trade cases initiated during the year were mainly against Chinese steel, but famously in the EU’s case, the crackdown was directed at other Asian origins, whose steel supply was displaced by Chinese tonnages.
虽然市场已经习惯建筑行业需求低迷的局面，但上一年汽车行业的强劲表现在一定程度上掩盖了制造业的问题。但这些问题在2024年凸显出来，再加上高利率和紧张的地缘政治，导致全年钢铁需求预测被下调。世界钢铁协会在10月份发布的最新展望中称，2024年全球需求将同比下降0.9%。欧洲钢铁协会（Eurofer）在年初预测2024年欧盟需求增长5.6%，但在10月份的展望中预期需求下降1.8%。
While the market had become accustomed to sluggish construction sector demand, robust automotive industry performance the previous year had gone some way to masking problems in the manufacturing sector. But these came to the fore in 2024 and, coupled with high interest rates and tense geopolitics, resulted in steel demand forecasts being lowered throughout the year. In its latest outlook provided in October, worldsteel said global demand would inch down 0.9% on-year in 2024. Eurofer meanwhile went from forecasting 5.6% EU demand growth in 2024 at the start of the year, to expecting a 1.8% decline in its October outlook.
2024年是中国经济刺激承诺失败的一年。全球业界曾多次等待一系列刺激政策的宣布对中国国内需求产生切实影响。几乎在所有这些场合，中国的价格都因投机而飙升，但当需求明显得不到支持时，价格又立即回落。8月份，中国热轧卷和螺纹钢价格创下七年多来的新低。 12月宣布的最后一轮刺激政策让市场对2025年的需求改善抱有希望，值得关注。
2024 was a year of failed Chinese economic stimulus promises. On numerous occasions, the global industry waited for a tangible impact on Chinese domestic demand from an array of stimulus policy announcements. On almost all of these occasions, Chinese prices spiked due to speculation, only to fall immediately back again when it became clear demand would not be supported. In August, Chinese HRC and rebar prices hit over seven-year lows. The last round of stimulus policies, announced in December, has the market hoping for demand improvement in 2025. Watch this space.
欧洲工业继续与经济产出下降、成本上升以及一些人认为过于雄心勃勃的气候政策作斗争。 “去碳化而非去工业化”成为欧盟钢铁制造商的集结号，他们推动制定一项有利于整个欧盟的整体工业计划。欧洲央行前行长Mario Draghi警告说，面对中国和美国的竞争，如果不采取措施提高竞争力，欧洲将面临“缓慢的痛苦”。欧洲在贸易措施方面已经驾轻就熟，上一年已收紧长期保障措施，并继续进行CBAM测试。但在2024年，单靠这些措施显然不足以重振当地工业的命运。
European industry continued to battle with declining economic output, rising costs and, some would say, an overambitious climate policy. “Decarbonisation without deindustrialisation” became the rallying cry of EU steelmakers, who pushed for a holistic industrial plan that benefits the union as a whole. Former ECB President Mario Draghi warned Europe would face “slow agony” if it did not implement measures to raise competitiveness in the face of competition from China and the US. Europe is already well-schooled in the trade measures game, with long-standing safeguards being tightened in the past year and CBAM tests continuing. But it became clear in 2024 that such measures alone would not be enough to revive local industry’s fortunes.
2024年是英国塔尔伯特港钢厂永远结束炼铁的一年。这一年，安赛乐米塔尔公司将标志性的塔兰托钢厂的控制权移交给意大利政府，长期陷入困境的钢铁制造商Celsa最终剥离生产资产。蒂森克虏伯的管理层集体解散，集团宣布计划裁员11,000人。也是在这一年，美国与日本的关系受到质疑，因为新日铁收购美国钢铁公司的提议遭到强烈的政治反对。
2024 was the year when the UK’s Port Talbot steelworks ended ironmaking for good. It was the year ArcelorMittal relinquished control of the iconic Taranto steelworks to the Italian government, and long-troubled steelmaker Celsa finally divested production assets. Thyssenkrupp’s management quite en masse and the group announced plans to axe 11,000 jobs. It was also the year the US’s relationship with Japan was questioned as Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel came up against strong political opposition.
虽然欧洲的脱碳进程举步维艰，但巴西、中东和北非以及澳大利亚等其他地区的可再生能源和绿色金属投资前景却更加广阔。绿色金属走廊的发展将是未来值得关注的话题。
While decarbonisation floundered in Europe, prospects for renewable energy and green metallics investments in other regions, such as Brazil, the Middle East and North Africa, and Australia, became more promising. The development of green metallics corridors will be a topic to watch going forward.
进入2025年，不确定性继续给市场前景蒙上阴影。可以肯定的是，较低的利率将支持成熟经济体的需求反弹，但可能要等到下半年。唐纳德·特朗普重返美国总统宝座可能意味着全球贸易将受到进一步限制，同时也会带来更大的不可预测性。他的通胀政策可能会使美国降低通胀的努力脱轨。新一届欧盟委员会可能会借鉴特朗普的做法，将“欧洲优先”放在首位，即采取措施确保本地供应商受益于欧盟新工业战略带来的任何需求反弹。在继续脱碳的同时，欧洲还可能更加关注国防和安全问题，这也会刺激钢铁需求。
As we enter 2025, uncertainty continues to cloud the market outlook. What is certain is that lower interest rates should support a demand rebound in mature economies, but probably not until the second half of the year. The return of Donald Trump as US President is likely to mean further restrictions to global trade but also greater unpredictability. His inflationary policies may derail the US’s inflation reduction. The new European Commission is likely to take a leaf out of Trump’s book and put “Europe first”, meaning introduce measures to ensure local suppliers benefit from any demand rebound facilitated by a new EU industrial strategy. While continuing decarbonisation, Europe is also likely to focus more on defence and security concerns, which could also stimulate steel demand.
在针对中国钢铁的贸易措施日益增多的情况下，中国的出口商需要为他们的产品找到新的归宿。中国的经济增长将继续放缓，钢材需求将取决于中国如何应对房地产行业危机。
Amid an increasing number of trade measures against Chinese steel, exporters in the country will need to find new homes for their product. Economic growth will continue slowing in China, with steel demand depending on how the country tackles its property sector crisis.
无论2025年发生什么，Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）都将为您带来所有重要的发展动态。 感谢您的支持，让我们共同开启新的一年！
Whatever happens in 2025, Kallanish will be here to bring you all the key developments as they happen. Thank you for your support and see you in the new year!
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