杰富瑞表示，得益于中国的增长，全球电动汽车销售未受美国经济放缓的影响
Global sales undeterred by US slowdown thanks to China: Jefferies
美国投资银行杰富瑞表示，从全球销量来看，中国电动汽车的蓬勃发展有望弥补美国放缓的势头。
Booming electric vehicle growth in China is expected to make up for slowing momentum in the US when looking at global sales, according to US investment bank Jefferies.
预计2024年全球电动汽车普及率为21.5%，2025年为26.1%。插电式混合动力电动汽车（PHEV）的比例将从目前的8.5%上升到10.4%，纯电动汽车（BEV）的比例将从今年的13%上升到15.8%。
Worldwide EV penetration is estimated to be 21.5% in 2024 and 26.1% in 2025. The share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is set to rise to 10.4% from 8.5% currently, and of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to 15.8% from 13% this year.
预计2025年，即使没有补贴，中国的电动汽车销量也将同比增长23%，达到1,540万辆。 普及率将达到53%，而2024年为44%。
In 2025, China EV sales are forecast to rise by 23% year-on-year to 15.4 million units even without subsidies. The penetration rate will reach 53% compared to 44% in 2024.
Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）获悉，该国的PHEV和BEV销量预计都将增长25%，分别达到990万辆和790万辆。
PHEV and BEV sales in the country are both expected to rise by 25% to 9.9m and 7.9m units respectively, Kallanish reports.
相反，美国的BEV和PHEV市场份额预计将分别为7.5%和2%，因为即将上台的特朗普政府预计将推翻拜登的一些交通电气化政策。由于对BEV投资的承诺较低，预计2030年BEV的普及率为20%。
Conversely, the US BEV and PHEV market share is forecast to be 7.5% and 2%, respectively, as the upcoming Trump administration is expected to reverse some of Biden’s policies aimed at electrifying transport. BEV penetration is projected to reach 20% in 2030 amid lower commitments to BEV investment.
此外，预计明年欧洲的BEV普及率将达到21%。由于欧盟进口关税的影响相对较小，中国车型的销量将继续扩大。
Meanwhile, Europe is expected to see a 21% BEV penetration in the coming year. Sales of Chinese models will continue to expand thanks to a relatively muted impact from EU import duties.
杰富瑞分析师指出：“中国原始设备制造商对欧洲出口的指导表明，他们将重新推动向欧洲出口，这可能会提高普及率，但同样也会增加竞争和定价压力。”
“Chinese OEMs guidance on European exports suggest a renewed push which may increase penetration but may equally add to competition and pricing pressure,” analysts at Jefferies note.
11月份，欧洲、美国和中国的电动汽车销量同比增长42%，环比增长6%。电动汽车在汽车总销量中所占比例为34.6%，与2023年11月相比增长7.5个百分点。
In November, EV sales in Europe, the US, and China rose by 42% year-on-year, representing a 6% increase month-on-month. The share of EVs across total vehicle sales was 34.6%, up by 7.5 percentage points compared to November 2023.
这一增长主要由中国带动，其BEV的份额达到31.8%，PHEV占20.7%，同比分别增长5.5和8.5个百分点。
This growth was led by China, where BEVs reached a 31.8% share and PHEVs accounted for 20.7%, in a y-o-y increase of 5.5 and 8.5 percentage points, respectively.
在欧洲，BEV和PHEV分别占总销量的17.5%和7.9%，与2023年同期的比例大致相同。在美国，BEV和PHEV的市场份额也基本保持不变，分别为8.6%和1.7%。
In Europe, BEVs and PHEVs represented 17.5% and 7.9% of all sales, respectively, roughly the same proportion as the same period in 2023. In the US, the market share of BEVs and PHEVs also remained largely unchanged y-o-y at 8.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
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