马来西亚钢铁行业面临美国关税和中国进口产品带来的挑战
US tariffs, Chinese imports challenge Malaysia's steel sector
一位分析师表示，尽管预计会出现基础设施驱动的需求和国内缓解措施，但马来西亚钢铁行业仍面临美国关税政策和进口大量低价中国钢材的巨大冲击。
Malaysia's steel sector faces significant headwinds from US tariff policies and an influx of low-priced Chinese steel imports, an analyst says, despite anticipated infrastructure-driven demand and mitigating domestic measures.
Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）获悉，CIMB Securities最近的一份报告指出，即将上任的美国政府的关税政策可能会导致建筑材料价格在短期内出现波动，但马来西亚的基础设施项目应该会在2025年促进对钢材的需求。
Kallanish notes from a recent CIMB Securities report that the incoming US administration's tariff policies could cause near-term volatility in construction material prices, but Malaysia's infrastructure projects should bolster demand for steel in 2025.
报告还指出，中国新的刺激措施可能会提供支持，从而稳定该地区的钢材价格。
It also notes potential support from fresh stimulus measures in China, which could stabilise regional steel prices.
此外，即将到来的国内政策转变，如拟议的碳税、多级征税制度和强制为外籍员工缴纳公积金等，预计将增加钢铁企业的生产成本，而钢铁企业的利润空间已经受到挤压。
Meanwhile, the upcoming domestic policy shifts, such as a proposed carbon tax, the multi-tier levy system, and mandatory EPF contributions for foreign workers, are expected to increase production costs for steelmakers, which already grappling with squeezed margins.
CIMB还指出，长期的关税升级可能会将中国的过剩钢材转移到贸易壁垒较弱的市场，包括马来西亚。
CIMB also notes that prolonged tariff escalation could divert surplus Chinese steel to markets with weaker trade barriers, including Malaysia.
CIMB预测，随着钢厂将增量成本转嫁给终端用户，当地钢材价格在2025年恢复正常之前，短期内将出现波动。
It predicts local steel prices will fluctuate in the near term before normalising in 2025 as mills pass incremental costs to end users.
在国内方面，该研究机构重点强调马来西亚可能对钢铁进口征收的碳税，其目的是创造公平的竞争环境，为国家的绿色转型提供资金。
On the domestic front, the research house highlights Malaysia’s potential carbon tax on steel imports, designed to level the playing field and fund the nation’s green transition.
报告还指出，国际贸易和工业部正在编写一份报告，以应对中国钢铁过剩带来的挑战。预计到2026年，东盟的炼钢产能将翻一番，达到每年1.5亿吨。
It also notes that the Ministry of International Trade and Industry is preparing a report to address challenges posed by surplus Chinese steel, with ASEAN's steelmaking capacity expected to double to 150 million tonnes/year by 2026.
从2015年到2023年，马来西亚对进口钢材实施了9项反倾销措施和3项保护行动，其中包括针对中国产品的调查。
From 2015 to 2023, Malaysia implemented nine anti-dumping measures and three protective actions against steel imports, including investigations targeting Chinese products.
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