——做专业的科技财经媒体！
撰文：李星
美国总统大选以特朗普当选落下帷幕，业界大呼“那个要杀死手机的男人回来了”！
特朗普上一届为什么会搞得美国上、下“天怒人怨”！
在特朗普上一届任期时，美国政府最大的变化，就是重新以自由经济和商业契约来界定美国政府的行为。
与此前都是新兴市场国家，特别是金砖国家认为美国政府在WTO的强势压迫发展中国家不同，特朗普上一次当选后美国政府认为，在欧美通过WTO规则进行全球化产业救济后，新兴市场国家不但没有完成当时加入WTO时的承诺，如改善政治民生，开放经济市场，阻止独裁和难民产生等等，反而是利用WTO获得的经济利益来增强自己的极权统治，并阻止欧美先进发达经济体进入当地市场，并以巨大的贸易逆差作为经济武器，打乱欧美的经济与科技发展布局，同时消耗了欧美大量的海外军事力量来维护日益庞大的海上贸易运输安全，得不偿失。
因此，以特朗普为代表的美国保守派认为，如果不能在WTO中获得双向的利益分配，那么美国就应该退出相关的协议组织不再往外输血，重新组织起自己的国家生产，从而免去全球化带来的经济负担与贸易逆差，同时改善自己的基本民生。
随之而来的是美国政府相继退出一系列的多边协议组织，包括贸易、环境治理、人权、卫生、教育等全球性多边协议组织，甚至要退出联合国，即便是留在联合国，也不再独自承担大部联合国的运作费用等等。
同时美国也开始从海外撤军，不再为地区稳定背书，同时削减美国军事开支，撤回部分海外航母编队，输调的航母编队也不再出海，并停止了对在港维修航母的经费，导致美国至少三分之一的航母无法正常出海。
当时美国政府的一系列操作，不但让在全球化中受益的新兴资本家十分不满，同样也引起了美国军方的极度不安。这也是后来特朗普不能完成连任的重要原因。
特朗普要求美国制造业回流，资本无法承受产业转移利润损失
特朗普在上届任期内，最主要的经济动作，就是要求美国的制造业回流。特朗普认为，如果这些资本家不能在知识产权上收到相应的海外盈余，并反哺美国制造业外迁后的就业缺口造成的工人阶层损失，那么就应该把这些制造业重新转移回美国本土生产，不能让这些产能在服务产能当地社会与经济，享受巨额的贸易顺差同时，还不尊重美国的知识产权，进行仿制后，还反向输入到美国市场来扰乱美国的经济。同时，这些资本家把制造业从美国迁出之后，如果不能完成庞大的海外盈余回流美国反哺美国的工人阶层向上跃迁，成为产业链上游的受益者，那么这就是掏空美国、背叛美国。
因此特朗普除了提高进口商品的关税，降低美国国内的税率，以提升美国本土制造业企业在美国境内的竞争力，并吸引国外资本也到美国开展制造业业务，提升美国工人的就业率外，还要求美国在海外拥有庞大产能的企业，把制造业产能也搬回美国。
WTO本来就是欧美希望通过经济启蒙，来带动全球新兴市场走上民主自由道路的愿景组织，支持这一行为的理论就是资本全球化后的成本降低与利润增加：把生产环节以资源属性进行分解，让制造产能在资源属性集中的地方进行低成本的生产，再通过低成本的大海运分配到全球市场，从而在同样的生产要素与一致的产品售价下，以最低的生产成本获得最大的利润回报。
全球化的最大的特点就是产业链分工会越来越细，产业链会变得越来越长。其中最明显的，就是科技含量较高的电子信息产品，比如手机、电脑等，经过四十年的高速发展，从原来不到100个工序，已经衍变成了数十万个工序；制造完成一个产品由原来不到十个供应商，发展成了至少要上千家供应商才能制造完成的局面。
如一部手机或电脑，生产材料的矿物可能来自南美或非洲，芯片的原材料可能在美国，生产设备可能是德国、美国或日本，芯片生产厂家可能是台湾，封装测试可能是马来西亚，模组代工可能是中国，组装出货可能是中国、越南、印度或巴西，最终才会分销到全球各个市场。
所以，特朗普当时给的压力最大的，也是在海外布局产能的美资企业，其中苹果、微软、亚马逊、特斯拉、波音等大型科技企业，所承受的压力最大。当时苹果和微软就表示，特朗普是要“杀死手机”，是阻碍全球科技进步速度的“凶手”，并且也是这次选举中，竞争对手攻击特朗普执政理念的一个重要话题。
同时这些企业的供应商，也面临着同样对等的市场准入与税收优惠政策压力，不得不考虑前往美国本土进行配套服务。
其中当时最有名的美国外资投资事件，就是特朗普亲自出席开工仪式的富士康美国面板厂建厂规划，为了配合美国制造业的回流政策，富士康决定在美国本土建一座全球最大的10.5代面板产线，来供应回流美国本土制造企业的上游配套需求。
不过在苹果、微软、特斯拉为代表的企业经理人背后资本力量华尔街精英们，并没有特朗普那么高的觉悟，他们在乎的不是美国的长远伟大目标，而是眼前的业绩与利润。由于制造业回流美国涉及到大量的重复投资成本、供应链重整成本，以及美国庞大工会下的行政成本和劳工成本，各在科技企业的职业经理人以各种各样的理由，没有认真执行美国政府要求的制造业回流计划，只有少量一些在全球产业分工后，产业链仍然较短的制造业企业回到了美国本土，如农产品加工、纺织业、成衣业、家俱业等。
而大型的制造业企业，基本上在职业经理人的强力反对，与资本的极力拖延之下，特朗普最终没能让这些企业迅速把制造业搬回美国，而特朗普与郭台铭亲自上阵的“美国制造”形象工程，也成为了还没开始就已经烂尾的项目，持续受到竞争对手和党内反对派的诟病。
由于没能实现制造业回流美国，特朗普不但没能完成选举时“让美国再次伟大”，让美国人拥有工作和体面生活的承诺，还造成了特朗普与美国大型制造业和华尔街不断冲突与对立。
然后特朗普在军事上的回防美国，军事基地撤出全球冲突热点地区、航母战斗群回港停航的动作，最终还是改写了全球的历史格局。由于美军撤离后留下的真空地带，军阀力量不再受到节制，全球落后地区的极权统治不断加强，全球难民潮从南美一直漫延到北非、中东、东南亚等地，整个欧洲、北美，都挤满了来自南美、非洲、中东、南亚次大陆的难民。
特朗普重回白宫，全球供应链仍危机难解
这一届美国政府虽然在华尔街与老牌资本势力的影响下，没有在全球多边合作中进行大幅度的倒退行为，但是美国的制造业回流与控制贸易平衡，还是成为了美国政府延续下来的政策，也就是说，特朗普所留下来的大方向执政纲领没有产生根本性的变化。
同时为了兼顾老牌资本家的利益，美国并没有对供应链进行特朗普式的全部回流一刀切模式，而是采取了核心产业以补贴吸引回流，周边消费产业则以从全球各地重新迁往“友岸”、“近岸”外包的模式，尽量节省资本家的产业转移成本同时，也兼顾占领当地市场。
同时对于全球冲突热点地区，美国虽然由于军力后撤无法继续亲自下场，但是对于代理人的扶持力度并没有减弱，仍然希望在全球维持普遍的“美国之光”照耀，实现其民主自由普世化进程。
经过这一届政府的经营，欧美的供应链重整已经大部分完成，全球难民潮得到了有限缓解，但地区冲突却越演越烈，同时全球的科技进步速度，并没有得到有效的提升，全球经济发展基本停滞，全人类生活水平没有继续改善，反而有所倒退。
这一次特朗普当选，科技界最大的变化就是马斯克的倒戈，从反对特朗普，变成了特朗普的绝对支持者，并与特朗普在选前就开始筹划成立政府效率部门，废除、减少政府的无效立法，降低政府行政审批与监管门槛，激发市场活力来提升美国制造业回流与制造业复苏速度。
马斯克的倒戈，除了特斯拉已经在美国建立了庞大的生产基地，没有竞争对手那么大的回流压力外，另外马斯克旗下的其它公司，如SPACEX火箭公司、X传媒公司、脑机接口公司、无人驾驶公司等，只有在美国本土才能真正开展业务，在其它的国家或地区，根本无法正常运营，因此马斯克急切希望有个监管轻松、高度市场自由的美国，来完成正在不同阶段商业化的业务。
如果特朗普无法当选，美国政府仍然按照现在的运行机制来管理马斯克旗下这些企业，马斯克殖民火星、人类意识永生的这些设想，很可能要延迟很长时间，甚至有可能无法实现，这对于需要庞大资本支撑的这些前沿业务而言，任何的时间成本与运营成本，都可能在某一个瞬间抽干马斯克的财富与资本，致马斯克于死地。
与马斯克承担的是美国大部分核心制造业业务不同，苹果、微软、亚马逊这些消费型企业，虽然没有马斯克这么急切的时间窗口压力，但对于能够重新让自己的产品领先全球市场，还是处在同一个阵营里。因此，这些企业除了极力维护自己制造业外包政策，来降低制造业成本外，对于在美国建立更开放、自由的经济市场，核心供应链企业回流美国，打造安全和有韧性的全球供应链体系，与特朗普和马斯克基本是保持一致的。
目前双方最大的分歧是特朗普上台后对内减税，对外提高关税的政策，这个政策肯定会在短期内推高美国进口商口的成本，引发局部通胀，对于没有在美国本土设置硬件产能的企业，如苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊等科技巨头，肯定是较大的打击，因此在竞选时引起了这些企业巨头的反对。
而全球市场对于特朗普的当选，则是喜忧参半，喜的是特朗普肯定会尽量灭掉全球各地的战火，减少人员伤亡，加快全球重建进程。忧的是，美国政府从全球权力监管中退出，各地的极权势力会更快发展，那些减少的人员伤亡，很可能会被更巨大的难民数量所取代，成为全人类的另一重灾难。
而在全球供应链上，美国加关税的行为，除了会加快美国制造业回流，加大了对竞争对手的经济打压，让全球化进程进一步后退外，目前转移到第三方市场行为的竞争力也会受到较大的打击。
目前如马来西亚就已经发出警告，称特朗普上台后的政策，可能会波及到马来西亚的外资投资，希望外资谨慎进入马来西亚布局产能，以免后续造成不必要的损失。
另外，全球资本要想获得与美国同步发展的机会，那么与美国企业一起回流美国市场，加大对美国的投资力度就在所难免。韩国业界表示，特朗普当选后，韩国企业应该保持与美国政府的政策一致性，择机加大在美国的资本投入，以取得在美国本土地的市场先机，争取扩大韩国资本在全球的市场份额。
而作为与美国制造业产生了直接竞争的大中华地区和东南亚地区，以及印度市场，目前大多数还处在观望的状态，这些国家与地区的供应链企业认为，美国的制造业回流，必然会在当地留下市场真空地带，有利于本土企业填补进入，加快发展；同时美国对进口商品的加关税行为，同样也打击了这些企业从美国市场获得更高利润的机会，而且美国制造业回流，也会降低这些企业在美国本土市场的份额，未来最终是自己本土在国产替代中获得的利益更多，还是投资美国进行美国本土配套获得的利益更多，还是失去美国市场份额带来的损失更多，目前还要看特朗普再次执政后，相关政策的实施力度和执行效率而定。
而对于全球化进程的影响，资本市场也持两种态度，一种认为部分新兴市场为了更快的发展，有可能会接受美国提出的放弃极权与民间管制，开放市场建议，重新与美国构建新的贸易平衡协议机制，以替代WTO机制重新进入美国主导的新型全球化体系；而另一部分人则认为，特朗普执政则意味着现有的全球化进程会彻底死亡，现有的WTO成员国可能需要建立起一套没有美国管理的新型运行机制，来保证原有的全球化分工体不会受到较大的破坏，极力维持其运行下去。
美国大选后遗症，谁也逃不开
美国这个世界最大经济体的政策转向，对全球的经济影响无疑是巨大的。近年来由于美国制造业空心化所导致的美国社会分裂，不但已经成了美国社会的问题，其新兴资本，与老牌贵族资本间的较量，也成为左右全球经济与科技走向的重要因素。
而这种对立在美国大选中被充分的激发了出来，同时在新媒体时代，这种有利于调动基层民众的意识形态与执政理念的强烈对立，不但让传统媒体与传统贵族势力感觉到束手束脚，普通民众，新兴资本家以及美国的政治盟友与贸易伙伴等，也经常被底层民众的激烈情绪所裹挟，如果不能迅速让底层民众的生活水平提升上来，满足普通民众对国家的认同感和作为公民的自豪感，这种对立所产生的后果，同样十分惨烈。某种意义上可以说，美国的大选后遗症，谁也逃脱不开。
The man who was going to kill the phone is back, and the supply chain crisis after Trump's election is intractable
Editor: Lucien
The U.S. presidential election ended with Trump being elected, and the industry shouted "The man who was going to kill the phone is back"!
Why did Trump make the United States "angry and resentful" in the last term!
The biggest change in the U.S. government during Trump's last term was the redefinition of U.S. government behavior in terms of free economic and commercial contracts.
Unlike the previous emerging market countries, especially the BRICS countries, who believed that the US government was oppressing developing countries in the WTO, after Trump's last election, the US government believed that after Europe and the United States carried out global industrial relief through WTO rules, emerging market countries not only did not fulfill the commitments they made when they joined the WTO, such as improving political and people's livelihood and opening up their economic marketsOn the contrary, it is using the economic benefits obtained by the WTO to strengthen its own totalitarian rule, and preventing the advanced developed economies of Europe and the United States from entering the local market, and using the huge trade deficit as an economic weapon to disrupt the economic and technological development layout of Europe and the United States, and at the same time consuming a large amount of overseas military strength of Europe and the United States to maintain the security of the increasingly huge maritime trade and transportation, and the gains outweigh the losses.
Therefore, the American conservatives represented by Trump believe that if it cannot obtain a two-way distribution of benefits in the WTO, then the United States should withdraw from the relevant agreement organizations, stop transfusing blood, and reorganize its own national production, so as to avoid the economic burden and trade deficit brought about by globalization, and at the same time improve its own basic livelihood.
This has been followed by the withdrawal of the US government from a series of multilateral agreements, including global multilateral agreements such as trade, environmental governance, human rights, health, and education, and even from the United Nations.
At the same time, the United States has also begun to withdraw its troops from overseas, no longer endorsing regional stability, and at the same time has cut US military spending, withdrawn some overseas aircraft carrier formations, and transferred aircraft carrier formations no longer go to sea, and stopped funding for the maintenance of aircraft carriers in Hong Kong, resulting in at least one-third of the US aircraft carriers being unable to go to sea normally.
At that time, the US government's series of manipulations not only made the emerging capitalists who benefited from globalization very dissatisfied, but also caused extreme unease in the US military. This is also an important reason why Trump could not complete his re-election later.
Trump demanded that the US manufacturing industry return to the United States, and capital could not afford the loss of profits from industrial transfer
Trump's main economic move during his last term was to demand the return of manufacturing in the United States. Trump believes that if these capitalists cannot receive a corresponding overseas surplus in intellectual property rights and make up for the loss of the working class caused by the employment gap caused by the relocation of American manufacturing industry, then these manufacturing industries should be transferred back to the United States for production, and these production capacity should not be allowed to serve the local society and economy of production capacity, enjoy a huge trade surplus, and at the same time do not respect American intellectual property rights, and after imitation, they are also imported into the American market to disrupt the American economy. At the same time, after these capitalists move the manufacturing industry out of the United States, if they cannot complete the huge overseas surplus flowing back to the United States to feed the American working class to leap upwards and become the beneficiaries of the upstream of the industrial chain, then this is a hollowing out of the United States and betraying the United States.
Therefore, in addition to raising tariffs on imported goods and lowering domestic tax rates in the United States to enhance the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing enterprises in the United States, and attracting foreign capital to carry out manufacturing business in the United States and improve the employment rate of American workers, Trump also asked American enterprises with huge overseas production capacity to move their manufacturing capacity back to the United States.
The WTO was originally a willing organization that Europe and the United States hoped to drive the global emerging markets to embark on the road of democracy and freedom through economic enlightenment, and the theory that supported this behavior was the reduction of costs and the increase of profits after the globalization of capital: the production links were decomposed by resource attributes, so that the manufacturing capacity could be produced at low cost in places where resource attributes were concentrated, and then distributed to the global market through low-cost shipping, so as to obtain the maximum profit return at the lowest production cost under the same production factors and consistent product prices.
The biggest feature of globalization is that the industrial chain will become more and more detailed, and the industrial chain will become longer and longer. Among them, the most obvious is the electronic information products with high technology content, such as mobile phones, computers, etc., after 40 years of rapid development, from less than 100 processes, has evolved into hundreds of thousands of processes; The completion of a product has developed from less than ten suppliers to at least 1,000 suppliers to complete the manufacturing situation.
For example, a mobile phone or computer may be produced from South America or Africa, the raw materials of the chip may be in the United States, the production equipment may be Germany, the United States or Japan, the chip manufacturer may be Taiwan, the packaging and testing may be Malaysia, the module foundry may be China, and the assembly and shipment may be China, Vietnam, India or Brazil, and finally it will be distributed to various markets around the world.
Therefore, the greatest pressure on Trump at that time was also on American-funded companies that deployed production capacity overseas, among which large technology companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, and Boeing were under the greatest pressure. At that time, Apple and Microsoft said that Trump was going to "kill mobile phones", and that he was the "murderer" of hindering the speed of global technological progress, and it was also an important topic in this election for competitors to attack Trump's governing philosophy.
At the same time, the suppliers of these enterprises are also facing the same pressure of reciprocal market access and preferential tax policies, and have to consider going to the United States for supporting services.
In order to cooperate with the return policy of the U.S. manufacturing industry, Foxconn decided to build the world's largest 10.5 generation panel production line in the United States to supply the upstream supporting needs of domestic manufacturing enterprises in the United States.
However, the Wall Street elites, the capital forces behind the corporate managers represented by Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla, are not as conscious as Trump, and they do not care about the long-term great goals of the United States, but about the immediate performance and profits. Due to the fact that the return of manufacturing to the United States involves a large number of repeated investment costs, supply chain reorganization costs, and administrative costs and labor costs under the huge labor unions in the United States, the professional managers of various technology companies have not seriously implemented the manufacturing reshoring plan required by the US government for various reasons, and only a small number of manufacturing enterprises with relatively short industrial chains have returned to the United States after the global industrial division of labor, such as agricultural product processing, textile industry, garment industry, furniture industry, etc.
Basically, under the strong opposition of professional managers and the strong delay of capital, Trump finally failed to let these companies quickly move the manufacturing industry back to the United States, and the "Made in America" image project that Trump and Terry Gou personally participated in has also become a project that has not yet started, and continues to be criticized by competitors and party opposition.
By failing to bring manufacturing back to the United States, Trump not only failed to fulfill the election promise of "making America great again" and giving Americans jobs and decent lives, but also caused constant conflict and confrontation between Trump and the large manufacturing industry in the United States and Wall Street.
Then Trump's military return to the United States, the withdrawal of military bases from global conflict hotspots, and the return of aircraft carrier battle groups to port and suspend sailing, finally rewrote the global historical pattern. Due to the vacuum left behind by the withdrawal of US troops, the power of warlords is no longer controlled, the totalitarian rule of the world's backward regions has been strengthened, and the global refugee flow has spread from South America to North Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and other places, and the whole of Europe and North America is crowded with refugees from South America, Africa, the Middle East, and the South Asian subcontinent.
Trump is back in the White House, and global supply chains are still in crisis
Although the current US administration has not carried out significant regression in global multilateral cooperation under the influence of Wall Street and the old capital forces, the return of manufacturing in the United States and the control of trade balance have become the policies of the US government, that is, the general direction of Trump's governing program has not changed fundamentally.
At the same time, in order to take into account the interests of the old capitalists, the United States did not carry out a Trump-style one-size-fits-all model of reshoring the supply chain, but adopted the core industries to attract reshoring with subsidies, and the peripheral consumer industries relocated from all over the world to the "friendly shore" and "nearshore" outsourcing model, so as to save the capitalists' industrial transfer costs as much as possible, and at the same time take into account the occupation of the local market.
At the same time, although the United States is unable to continue to personally end the situation in the hot spots of global conflicts due to the withdrawal of military strength, its support for proxies has not weakened, and it still hopes to maintain the universal "light of the United States" around the world and realize the process of universalizing democracy and freedom.
After the operation of this administration, the supply chain restructuring of Europe and the United States has been largely completed, and the global refugee flow has been alleviated to a limited extent, but the regional conflict has become more and more intense, and at the same time, the global speed of scientific and technological progress has not been effectively improved, the global economic development has basically stagnated, and the living standards of all mankind have not continued to improve, but have regressed.
This time Trump was elected, the biggest change in the technology industry is Musk's defection, from opposing Trump, to Trump's absolute supporter, and Trump began to plan the establishment of a government efficiency department before the election, repeal and reduce the government's ineffective legislation, lower the government's administrative approval and regulatory threshold, and stimulate market vitality to improve the speed of reshoring and manufacturing recovery in the United States.
MUSK'S DEFECTION, IN ADDITION TO TESLA HAS ESTABLISHED A HUGE PRODUCTION BASE IN THE UNITED STATES, THERE IS NO SUCH PRESSURE AS COMPETITORS TO RETURN TO THE MARKET, IN ADDITION TO MUSK'S OTHER COMPANIES, SUCH AS SPACEX ROCKET COMPANY, X MEDIA COMPANY, BRAIN-COMPUTER INTERFACE COMPANY, UNMANNED DRIVING COMPANY, ETC., CAN ONLY REALLY CARRY OUT BUSINESS IN THE UNITED STATES, IN OTHER COUNTRIES OR REGIONS, CAN NOT OPERATE NORMALLY AT ALL, SO MUSK IS EAGER TO HAVE A UNITED STATES WITH EASY REGULATION AND A HIGH DEGREE OF MARKET FREEDOM TO COMPLETE THE BUSINESS THAT IS BEING COMMERCIALIZED AT DIFFERENT STAGES.
If Trump is not elected, the U.S. government still manages Musk's companies according to the current operating mechanism, and Musk's idea of colonizing Mars and immortalizing human consciousness is likely to be delayed for a long time, and may even not be realized.
Unlike Musk, who is responsible for most of the core manufacturing components in the United States, consumer companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, although they do not have such an urgent time window pressure as Musk, are still in the same camp for being able to regain their products ahead of the global market. Therefore, in addition to vigorously maintaining their own manufacturing outsourcing policies to reduce manufacturing costs, these companies are basically consistent with Trump and Musk for establishing a more open and free economic market in the United States, returning core supply chain enterprises to the United States, and creating a safe and resilient global supply chain system.
At present, the biggest difference between the two sides is the policy of cutting taxes at home and raising tariffs externally after Trump took office, which will definitely push up the cost of U.S. importers in the short term and cause local inflation.
The global market is mixed with the election of Trump, and the good news is that Trump will try his best to extinguish the flames of war around the world, reduce casualties, and speed up the process of global reconstruction. The worry is that the US government will withdraw from the regulation of global power, and the totalitarian forces everywhere will develop faster, and those reduced casualties are likely to be replaced by a greater number of refugees, becoming another catastrophe for all mankind.
In the global supply chain, the U.S. tariff hike will not only accelerate the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing, increase the economic pressure on competitors, and further regress the globalization process, but also deal a greater blow to the competitiveness of the current third-party market.
At present, Malaysia has issued a warning, saying that Trump's policies after taking office may affect foreign investment in Malaysia, and it is hoped that foreign capital will cautiously enter Malaysia to lay out production capacity to avoid unnecessary losses in the future.
In addition, if global capital wants to get the opportunity to develop in tandem with the United States, it is inevitable to return to the American market with American companies and increase investment in the United States. South Korean industry said that after Trump's election, South Korean companies should maintain policy consistency with the US government and take the opportunity to increase capital investment in the United States, so as to gain market opportunities in the United States and strive to expand the market share of Korean capital in the world.
As the Greater China and Southeast Asian regions, as well as the Indian market, which are in direct competition with the U.S. manufacturing industry, most of them are still in a wait-and-see state, and the supply of these countries and regions is still in a wait-and-see stateChain enterprises believe that the return of the manufacturing industry in the United States will inevitably leave a market vacuum in the local area, which is conducive to local enterprises to fill in and accelerate development; At the same time, the United States' tariffs on imported goods have also hit the opportunity for these companies to obtain higher profits from the U.S. market, and the return of U.S. manufacturing will also reduce the share of these companies in the U.S. domestic market.
As for the impact of the globalization process, the capital market also holds two attitudes: one is that some emerging markets may accept the United States' proposal to abandon totalitarian and non-governmental controls, open up the market, and re-establish a new trade balance agreement mechanism with the United States to replace the WTO mechanism and re-enter the new globalization system led by the United States; Others believe that Trump's administration means that the existing globalization process will be completely dead, and the existing WTO members may need to establish a new type of operation mechanism without the management of the United States, so as to ensure that the original global division of labor will not be greatly damaged and strive to maintain its operation.
No one can escape the aftermath of the U.S. election
The policy shift of the United States, the world's largest economy, will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the global economy. In recent years, the division of American society caused by the hollowing out of the American manufacturing industry has not only become a problem in American society, but also the competition between its emerging capital and the old aristocratic capital has also become an important factor affecting the global economy and technological trends.
At the same time, in the new media era, this strong opposition between ideology and governing philosophy that is conducive to mobilizing the grassroots people not only makes the traditional media and the traditional aristocratic forces feel constrained, but also ordinary people, emerging capitalists, and political allies and trading partners of the United States are often coerced by the fierce emotions of the people at the bottom, if they cannot quickly improve the living standards of the people at the bottom. The consequences of satisfying ordinary people's sense of identity with the country and their pride in being a citizen are equally tragic. In a sense, it can be said that no one can escape the aftermath of the election in the United States.
