——做专业的科技财经媒体！
撰文：李星
美国大选答案揭晓，特朗普再次入主白宫成为现实。
由于担心特朗普明年正式当政后，会启动其竞选过程中声称的增加关税行为，特别是针对中国商品征收60%关税，让主要面向欧美市场的中资制造业企业主管们立即启动了产能搬家规划，纷纷踏上海外寻找产能落地目标的的旅程，机票目标选定东盟、巴西、墨西哥。
其中越南由于临近中国，并且有着较低的投资风险，成为这些企业高管的重点考察地点。
另外，有媒体称，基于“地缘政治考量”，力挺特朗普的美国知名企业家马斯克日前向SpaceX的中国台湾地区供应商提出了一项要求：把生产业务搬出台湾地区，并促使至少一家制造商将生产线转移到越南，这让越南在中资企业高管心目中的分量也更高。
事实上特朗普在几个月前就开始在越南布局，根据越南京北（Kinh Bắc）的公开消息，2024年9月25日，特朗普集团（Trump Group）执行副总裁也是特朗普的儿子——埃里克·特朗普(Eric Trump)与KBC董事长，在唐纳德·特朗普先生的见证下，于美国佛罗里达州代表特朗普集团与兴安省人民委员会也与签署合作备忘录，投资约15亿美元在北宁新建包括54洞高尔夫球场、度假村、别墅、住宅综合体等在内的房地产项目。
在签署投资协议时，特朗普集团的代表们表示，希望兴安省能在新的商业项目中，提供有力的帮助支持，以吸引更多美国企业来越投资发展。
当时就有行业分析认为，这是特朗普为往后中美贸易战留下的一条灰色沟通通道，想要继续跟美国做生意，先去特朗普的越南企业打一场高尔夫再说。
而这次作为特朗普铁杆的马斯克也点名自己的台资供应商搬到越南，则说明希望中美供应链重叠部分，在未来的贸易冲突中，越南的避风港作用仍然有效。
此前东盟各国都认为，特朗普当选后，转移到东盟国家生产的中资企业，很可能无法完全洗脱掉产地证明嫌疑，未来其它行业企业，也有可能会遭遇类似之前美国对东盟的中资光伏企业一样的关税惩罚，因此对外资投资释放出了部分预警信息，避免盲目投资造成各方损失。
不过大部分面向欧美市场的中资企业，基本上已经完成了自己的海外产能布局。其中汽车家电产业链基本上已经在墨西哥建立备份产能，而电子信息制造业则在越南建立了相应的生产基地，如主要为美国家庭提供扫地机器人、庭院割草机、家用电动工具等电动化升级产品产业链企业，从终端产品到电机、控制板供应商，都已经在今年陆续投产。
而欧美的经销商们也早在今年上半年，就预先抢跑订单，把后面一到两年的订单前置，让中国大陆企业提前生产出货备库存，因此今年第二季度，中国对欧美的出口也迅速增长。
不过这批订单基本上已经交付完毕，海关给出的数据显示，今年三季度中国对欧美的出口已经回落到往年的水平，中国的出口增量主要来自于俄罗斯、日本市场，而对东盟的出口则维持了原有增速，说明中资企业在越南的投产情况较为良好。
然而中美的贸易关系没有改善之前，肯定会有部分中国厂商会在美国市场失去竞争力，因此为了填补这些中国厂商退出美国市场后留下的缺口，仍然有新的中资企业愿意投资越南，希望借助越南的制造业来生产产品，再出口到美国。
特别是全球市场都认为特朗普执政后的关税政策，肯定会降低全球的经济增长，在整个大环境变差的情况下，去抓住欧美市场因原来供应商退出所留下来的机会，无疑比茫然的等待更为有利。
同时，中资、韩资企业借道越南出口欧洲、美国市场的趋势仍在加强，越南公布的数据则显示，累计前10月货物进出口总额估计达6478.7亿美元，同比增长15.8%，其中出口增长14.9%，进口增长16.8%。从越南2024年前10月出口商品结构看，主要集中在加工工业，金额为2952.3亿美元，占比高达88.0%。
2024年前10月，美国是越南最大的出口市场，出口额达984亿美元。中国是越南最大的供应市场，越南从中国进口额达1177亿美元。越南对美国贸易顺差861亿美元，同比增长26.9%；对欧盟贸易顺差285亿美元，增长18.6%；对日本贸易顺差24亿美元，增长56.9%；对华贸易逆差669亿美元，增长68.5%；对韩国贸易逆差253亿美元，增长8.1%；对东盟贸易逆差73亿美元，增长6.4%。
在吸引投资方面，2024年前10个月，共有76个国家和地区对越南进行投资。新加坡是最大的投资国，注册资本为49.8亿美元，占新注册资本总额的32.7%；其次是韩国（20.8亿美元，占13.7%）、中国（20.7亿美元，占13.6%）以及中国香港特别行政区（16.9亿美元，占11.1%）。这其中加工制造业以97.9亿美元的注册资本占新增外资总额的64.2%，
大部分加工制造业也是中国大陆资本为了规避越南的投资注册法律条文限制，借道香港和新加坡在越南进行投资。
由于目前越南的制造业产业链相对完整，但是细分到各个领域份额并是太大，主要是中、日、韩、台企业为了出口欧美市场订单设置的产能。同时由于越南的高端精密制造领域基本上还处于空白，所以当前越南尤其鼓励中国企业在可再生新能源、电子、创新科技领域的投资，希望能借助这些创新领域的投资，完成越南制造业的改造升级，往自动化或数字化高端制造转型。
Trump's trade phobia hit, and Chinese companies once again rushed to Vietnam
Editor: Lucien
The answer to the U.S. election has been revealed, and Trump's re-entry into the White House has become a reality.
Fearing that Trump will launch the tariff increases he claimed during his campaign campaign after he officially takes office next year, especially the 60% tariff on Chinese goods, the executives of Chinese manufacturing companies, mainly for the European and American markets, immediately started their plans to move production capacity, and the air ticket targets were selected for ASEAN, Brazil, and Mexico.
Among them, Vietnam's proximity to China and low investment risk have become a key location for these business executives.
In addition, some media said that based on "geopolitical considerations", Musk, a well-known American entrepreneur who supports Trump, recently put forward a request to SpaceX's suppliers in Taiwan, China: to move production operations out of Taiwan, and prompt at least one manufacturer to move production lines to Vietnam, which makes Vietnam more important in the minds of Chinese corporate executives.
In fact, Trump began to deploy in Vietnam a few months ago, according to public information from Kinh Bắc, Vietnam, on September 25, 2024, the executive vice president of the Trump Group and Trump's son, Eric Trump, and the chairman of KBC, witnessed by Mr. Donald Trump, in Florida, the United States, on behalf of the Trump Organization and the Hung Yen Provincial People's Committee, also signed a memorandum of cooperation. Invest about US$1.5 billion in new real estate projects in Bac Ninh, including 54-hole golf courses, resorts, villas, residential complexes, etc.
At the time of signing the investment agreement, representatives of the Trump Organization expressed the hope that Hung Yen Province could provide strong support for new business projects to attract more American companies to invest and develop in Vietnam.
At that time, some industry analysts believed that this was a gray communication channel left by Trump for the future Sino-US trade war, and if you want to continue to do business with the United States, you must first go to Trump's Vietnamese company to play a round of golf.
This time, Musk, who is a Trump die-hard, also named his Taiwanese suppliers to move to Vietnam, indicating that he hopes that the supply chain between China and the United States will overlap, and Vietnam's role as a safe haven will still be effective in future trade conflicts.
Previously, ASEAN countries believed that after Trump's election, Chinese-funded enterprises that transferred to ASEAN countries for production are likely to be unable to completely wash away the suspicion of proof of origin, and enterprises in other industries may also encounter the same tariff penalties as the United States did to Chinese-funded photovoltaic companies in ASEAN in the future.
However, most of the Chinese-funded enterprises facing the European and American markets have basically completed their overseas production capacity layout. Among them, the automotive home appliance industry chain has basically established backup production capacity in Mexico, while the electronic information manufacturing industry has established a corresponding production base in Vietnam, such as the industrial chain enterprises that mainly provide sweeping robots, yard mowers, household power tools and other electrification upgrade products for American families, from terminal products to motors and control panel suppliers, have been put into production this year.
As early as the first half of this year, European and American dealers also preempted orders, putting the orders of the next one to two years in advance, allowing Chinese mainland enterprises to produce and ship in advance to prepare inventory, so in the second quarter of this year, China's exports to Europe and the United States also grew rapidly.
However, this batch of orders has basically been delivered, the data given by the customs show that China's exports to Europe and the United States in the third quarter of this year have fallen back to the level of previous years, China's export increase mainly comes from Russia, Japan market, and exports to ASEAN have maintained the original growth rate, indicating that the production of Chinese-funded enterprises in Vietnam is relatively good.
However, before the trade relationship between China and the United States improves, some Chinese manufacturers will definitely lose their competitiveness in the US market, so in order to fill the gap left by these Chinese manufacturers after withdrawing from the US market, there are still new Chinese companies willing to invest in Vietnam, hoping to use Vietnam's manufacturing industry to produce products and then export them to the United States.
In particular, the global market believes that the tariff policy after the Trump administration will definitely reduce global economic growth, and it is undoubtedly more advantageous to seize the opportunity left by the withdrawal of original suppliers in the European and American markets than to wait blindly when the overall environment is deteriorating.
At the same time, Chinese-funded and Korean-funded enterprises are still strengthening the trend of exporting to Europe and the United States through Vietnam, and the data released by Vietnam shows that the total import and export of goods in the first 10 months is estimated to reach 647.87 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, of which exports increased by 14.9% and imports increased by 16.8%. From the perspective of the structure of Vietnam's export commodities in the first 10 months of 2024, it is mainly concentrated in the processing industry, with an amount of 295.23 billion US dollars, accounting for 88.0%.
In the first 10 months of 2024, the United States was Vietnam's largest export market, with exports amounting to US$98.4 billion. China is Vietnam's largest supply market, with imports from China amounting to US$117.7 billion. Vietnam's trade surplus with the United States was US$86.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%; the trade surplus with the EU was 28.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.6%; the trade surplus with Japan was 2.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 56.9%; the trade deficit with China was 66.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 68.5 percent; the trade deficit with South Korea was 25.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.1%; The trade deficit with ASEAN was US$7.3 billion, up 6.4 percent.
In terms of attracting investment, a total of 76 countries and regions have invested in Vietnam in the first 10 months of 2024. Singapore is the largest investor, with a registered capital of US$4.98 billion, accounting for 32.7% of the total new registered capital. This was followed by South Korea (US$2.08 billion, 13.7%), China (US$2.07 billion, 13.6%) and Hong Kong SAR (US$1.69 billion, 11.1%). Among them, the processing and manufacturing industry accounted for 64.2% of the total new foreign investment with a registered capital of 9.79 billion US dollars
Most of the processing and manufacturing industries are also invested in Vietnam by Chinese mainland capital through Hong Kong and Singapore in order to circumvent the restrictions of Vietnam's investment registration laws.
At present, Vietnam's manufacturing industry chain is relatively complete, but the share of subdivision into various fields is not too large, mainly due to the production capacity set up by Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese enterprises in order to export orders to the European and American markets. At the same time, because Vietnam's high-end precision manufacturing field is basically blank, so Vietnam especially encourages Chinese enterprises to invest in the fields of renewable new energy, electronics, and innovative technology, hoping to complete the transformation and upgrading of Vietnam's manufacturing industry with the help of investment in these innovative fields, and transform to automation or digital high-end manufacturing.
