近日印度电信管理局(Telecom Regulatory Authority)公布的数据显示，截至10月底，印度手机用户数量已突破10亿，达到10.3亿，较前一个月增长了700万，成为仅次于中国的全球第二大手机用户市场。产业界对10亿的数字应该是十分敏感的，因为中国的智能手机与中国手机品牌的真正快速发展，就是始于手机用户超过10亿时的2012年。当是也正逢中国的“十二五计划”开局，政府发文称“十二五”时期是全面建设小康社会的关键时期，是深化改革开放、加快转变经济发展方式的攻坚时期。工业是中国国民经济的主导力量，是转变经济发展方式的主战场。今后五年，中国工业发展环境将发生深刻变化，长期积累的深层次矛盾日益突出，粗放增长模式已难以为继，已进入到必须以转型升级促进工业又好又快发展的新阶段。转型就是要通过转变工业发展方式，加快实现由传统工业化向新型工业化道路转变；升级就是要通过全面优化技术结构、组织结构、布局结构和行业结构，促进工业结构整体优化提升。工业转型升级是中国加快转变经济发展方式的关键所在，是走中国特色新型工业化道路的根本要求，也是实现工业大国向工业强国转变的必由之路。也是在这个时候，中国提出了“中国制造2025”，为制造业的未来发展设定了明确的目标和路径；加大对科技创新的投入，鼓励企业加强自主研发和创新能力；推动制造业向技术密集型、绿色环保型和服务型转型，提高制造业的附加值和竞争力；加强知识产权保护，为企业创新提供有力保障等，这些举措都为推动制造业向高质量发展提供了有力支持。当然，经过近八年的高质量工业发展，2020年，中国在实现全面建成小康社会奋斗目标的同时，也基本实现了工业化。这一成就标志着我国工业化进程取得了历史性进展，同时也意味着工业化步入全新的发展阶段。这期间人们感觉变化最明显的，其实也就是智能手机。市场研究机构Counterpoint的数据显示，2013年，价格处于2000元—3000元的智能手机在中等消费人群中的占比仅为30%，然而到了2023年，这一比例已经提高到55%，足见中等消费人群更愿意为高品质的产品买单。同时中国手机制造的中华酷联全面瓦解，原来占据主流市场的海外品牌诺基亚、三星、索爱、LG、HTC等，几乎全部从中国市场消失，只剩下苹果以差异化的系统和封闭的生态体系，主导体高端手机市场。而以小米为代表的互联网品牌，以及以闻泰、华勤、光弘等为代表的代工制造企业则迅速崛起，再伴随着重点布局线下门店营销的BBK系OPPO、vivo杀出重围，原来的运营商渠道体系几乎全军尽墨，只有全面学习小米的华为以及互联网子品牌荣耀，与小米在市场与供应链资源上直接竞争。事实上互联网品牌与BBK系的线下门店系统品牌，都积极学习苹果的品牌策略，以及供应链管理模式，互联网品牌通过“孤品”策略，在一个时间段内，尽可能只推出一款手机，并把订单最大化来降低采购与运营成本；BBK则以线下打造“爆款”的方式，以与苹果类似和外观和配置，但仅不到一半的售价和帮用户贴膜，无理由更换新机等更好的服务体验，来吸引用户购买。在这些在功策略的运作下，中国的手机供应链也节省了以前各家机海战术中所浪费的开模费用、库存与品质售后成本，开始走向正向盈利。同时在单品大订单采购的刺激下，技术迭代速度快的供应商，也迅速复制技术扩产，日渐成长为各个细分领域的巨无霸。如显示屏的京东方、天马、蓝思科技、欧菲光、合力泰、汇顶科技等，结构件的长盈精密、领益制造等，射频天线的硕贝德等，这些企业充分利用自己的制造业规模和资本市场资源，已上市场迅速扩大规模，没上市的想办法上市进入资本市场融资扩张。中国手机制造业也从2014年、2015年的缺芯少屏，发展成2019年的全面产能过剩，很多库存管理不善的企业纷纷暴雷熄火。而现在，印度的手机制造业也走上了当年中国同行的“康庄大道”，苹果手机开始印度制造，印度本土企业开始进入到苹果的供应商名录直接供货，印度本土的代工厂商塔塔、迪克森等，纷纷把手机制造产能往年产1亿台的目标靠近。而印度的智能手机年销量也预计将于今年或明年达到年销1.5亿台的规模，并且增长率在8%左右的高水平。这也意味着印度自己完全有条件向当年中国一样，在未来的几年里，打造出印度自己的“手机供应链企业大军”出来，未来印度只要不作死，完全能够复制当年中国智能手机制造业的发展之路。近期在农业产出反弹和私人消费增加的帮助下，印度对2025年3月结束的本财政年度经济增长预测从4月份的6.6%上调至7%。印度储备银行行长沙克蒂坎塔·达斯（Shaktikanta Das）说：“预计2024-25年的实际GDP增长率为7.2%。第2季度为7%，第三季度为7.4%，第4季度为7.4%。预计2025-26财政年度第一季度的实际GDP增长率为7.3%，风险平衡均匀。”印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪于10月4日表示，他有信心印度经济在未来几年的增长率可以“远远超过”7%以上，他强调，凭借强劲的经济基本面，印度正朝着持续的高增长方向发展。莫迪认为印度是全球增长最快的主要经济体。按 GDP 计算，它是全球第五大经济体。它在全球金融科技采用率、数据消费量和互联网用户数量方面均位居第一。全球一半的实时数字交易发生在印度，有全球第三大创业生态系统，在可再生能源产能方面排名第四，在移动制造方面排名第二，在两轮车和拖拉机生产方面排名第一。同时印度是世界上最年轻的国家。它拥有第三大科学家和技术人员队伍；无论是科学、技术还是创新，印度显然都处于最佳状态。目前印度在最大的短板半导体方面，宣布设立一个一万亿卢比（约846亿人民币）的基金支持印度半导体行业发展，并对半导体制造相关投资提供高达50%的支持。而在手机制造方面，印度已经引入了 PLI 计划，其影响在多个行业都显而易见。仅在过去三年中，印度就获得了价值 12.5 亿卢比的投资，生产价值 11 万亿卢比。通过为在印度本地进行生产的电子制造商提供补贴，以吸引组装环节的发展。2021年推出的一期计划分配预算为 735 亿卢比（10.2 亿美元）。2023年推出的PLI 2.0方案，预算支出约1700亿卢比（约合145亿元人民币），产品涵盖智能手机，笔记本电脑、平板电脑、一体机、服务器和超小型设备等。目前有资格进入PLI补贴名单的公司包括迪克森、塔塔等印度本土企业，鸿海等苹果产业链企业以及Dell、HP等IT硬件相关公司。例如迪克森的智能手机组装份额达到了印度市场的15%，主要客户包括小米、OPPO、vivo，Realme、传音等中国品牌和三星等韩国品牌客户，已经有了中国ODM领头企业的影子。同时在显示面板上，塔塔与群创将开启合作，而迪克森则与中国惠科合资办厂。也就是说印度政府和这两大OEM\ODM代工大厂，开始把手机制造供应链上的半导体芯片与面板制造补齐，后续高速发展的趋势已经形成。一旦印度的手机制造供应链优势建立起来，国际品牌和印度本土品牌在印度市场上的竞争优势将变得极小，出现当年类似中国手机用户过10亿时，以ODM为中心的手机品牌再造过程，也将直接在印度市场上出现，而印度品牌有着自己的本土优势，会不会上演当年海外品牌全面退出中国市场的类似现象，中国国产品牌也不得不退出印度市场，还真说不定。印度电子产业过去10年快速发展，产值规模已经达到1500亿美元，印度的目标是到本十年末将电子行业增长到5000亿美元。而印度凭借更低的劳动力成本、更高的劳动生产效率以及更具优势的制造业区位，对中国制造业产品出口和吸引外资构成替代效应也已经呈现。面对这种局面，中国手机品牌企业一是迅速把手机领域的品牌优势，在印度品牌和制造产业还没有完全承接成物联网AIOT产品的市场时，利用自己的品牌效应推广物联网AIOT产品来获取印度新的市场增长机会；而在传统的智能手机市场领域，则开始收缩原来的机海战术，从注重市场份额转向注重利润比率，优化自己在印度的经营效率来应对。一个有10亿用户量的巨大印度市场，虽然在印度政府民间的重重围堵之下，中国品牌目前仍在主宰着大部分的市场份额，然而巨大的印度力量冲击之下，中国品牌如何能够继续在印度站稳脚跟，除了复制苹果的成功之路之外，或许还真的没有多少办法可以阻挡，就象当年中国市场把海外品牌洗出去一样，中国品牌是时候做好一切准备了。
India's mobile phone users exceeded 1 billion, entering the "China speed" moment that does not belong to ChinaEditor: LucienAccording to data released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India recently, by the end of October, the number of mobile phone users in India had exceeded 1 billion, reaching 1.03 billion, an increase of 7 million from the previous month, making it the world's second largest mobile phone user market after China.The industry should be very sensitive to the number of 1 billion, because the real rapid development of China's smartphones and Chinese mobile phone brands began in 2012 when the number of mobile phone users exceeded 1 billion.
At that time, it also coincided with the beginning of China's "12th Five-Year Plan", and the government issued a document saying that the "12th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period for building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, and it is a critical period for deepening reform and opening up and accelerating the transformation of economic development mode. Industry is the leading force of China's national economy and the main battlefield for transforming the mode of economic development. In the next five years, China's industrial development environment will undergo profound changes, the deep-seated contradictions accumulated for a long time will become increasingly prominent, the extensive growth model has been unsustainable, and it has entered a new stage in which it is necessary to promote the sound and rapid development of industry through transformation and upgrading. Transformation is to accelerate the transformation from traditional industrialization to new industrialization by changing the mode of industrial development; Upgrading is to promote the overall optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure through the comprehensive optimization of the technical structure, organizational structure, layout structure and industry structure. Industrial transformation and upgrading is the key to accelerating the transformation of China's economic development mode, the fundamental requirement of taking the new industrialization path with Chinese characteristics, and the only way to realize the transformation of an industrial power into an industrial power.It was also at this time that China proposed "Made in China 2025", which set clear goals and paths for the future development of the manufacturing industry; increase investment in scientific and technological innovation, and encourage enterprises to strengthen independent research and development and innovation capabilities; Promote the transformation of the manufacturing industry to be technology-intensive, green and service-oriented, and improve the added value and competitiveness of the manufacturing industry; Strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights and providing a strong guarantee for enterprise innovation have provided strong support for promoting the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.Of course, after nearly eight years of high-quality industrial development, in 2020, China achieved the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and basically achieved industrialization. This achievement marks the historic progress made in China's industrialization process, and it also means that industrialization has entered a new stage of development.During this period, people felt that the most obvious change was actually smartphones. According to data from Counterpoint, a market research organization, in 2013, smartphones priced at 2,000-3,000 yuan accounted for only 30% of the middle-aged consumer group, but by 2023, this proportion has increased to 55%, which shows that the middle-aged consumer group is more willing to pay for high-quality products.At the same time, China's mobile phone manufacturing of China Cool Union has completely collapsed, and the overseas brands that originally occupied the mainstream market, such as Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, LG, HTC, etc., have almost all disappeared from the Chinese market, leaving Apple to dominate the high-end mobile phone market with a differentiated system and a closed ecosystem.The Internet brands represented by Xiaomi, as well as the foundry manufacturing enterprises represented by Wingtech, Huaqin, Guanghong, etc., have risen rapidly, and then with the BBK series OPPO and vivo that focus on the layout of offline store marketing, the original operator channel system is almost completely exhausted, and only the comprehensive study of Xiaomi's Huawei and Internet sub-brand Glory, and Xiaomi is in direct competition with the market and supply chain resources.In fact, Internet brands and BBK's offline store system brands are actively learning Apple's brand strategy and supply chain management model, and Internet brands use the "unique product" strategy to launch only one mobile phone as much as possible in a period of time, and maximize orders to reduce procurement and operating costs; BBK uses the offline way to create "explosive models", which is similar to Apple's appearance and configuration, but only less than half of the price and helps users apply film, and there is no reason to replace the new machine and other better service experience to attract users to buy.Under the operation of these power strategies, China's mobile phone supply chain has also saved the mold opening costs, inventory and quality after-sales costs wasted in the previous machine sea tactics, and has begun to move towards positive profits. At the same time, stimulated by the purchase of large orders for single products, suppliers with fast technology iteration speed have also quickly copied technology to expand production, and have gradually grown into giants in various segments. Such as BOE, Tianma, Lens Technology, O-film, Holitech, Goodix Technology, etc., Changying Precision, Lingyi Manufacturing, etc., structural parts, Shuobeide, etc., these companies make full use of their manufacturing scale and capital market resources, have been on the market to rapidly expand the scale, and those who have not been listed want to find ways to go public to enter the capital market for financing expansion. China's mobile phone manufacturing industry has also developed from a lack of cores and screens in 2014 and 2015 to a comprehensive overcapacity in 2019.And now, India's mobile phone manufacturing industry has also embarked on the "broad road" of Chinese counterparts, Apple mobile phones began to be made in India, India local enterprises began to enter Apple's supplier list for direct supply, India's local foundry merchants Tata, Dixon, etc., have approached the goal of 100 million mobile phone manufacturing capacity per year.India's annual smartphone sales are also expected to reach 150 million units this year or next, and the growth rate is at a high level of about 8%. This also means that India itself is fully qualified to be like China in the next few years, to create India's own "mobile phone supply chain enterprise army", as long as India does not die in the future, it can completely copy the development path of China's smartphone manufacturing industry.India's recent economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2025 was raised to 7% from 6.6% in April, helped by a rebound in agricultural output and higher private consumption.Reserve Bank of India Shaktikanta Das, Governor Shak·tikanta Das, said: "Real GDP growth is expected to be 7.2% in 2024-25. 7% in Q2, 7.4% in Q3 and 7.4% in Q4. Real GDP growth is expected to be 7.3% in the first quarter of the 2025-26 financial year, with an even balance of risks. ”India Prime Minister Narendra · Modi said on October 4 that he is confident that India's economy can grow "well over" more than 7% in the coming years, stressing that India is moving towards sustained high growth thanks to strong economic fundamentals.Modi believes that India is the world's fastest-growing major economy. It is the fifth-largest economy in the world by GDP. It ranks first globally in terms of fintech adoption, data consumption, and number of internet users. Half of the world's real-time digital transactions take place in India, which has the world's third-largest startup ecosystem, ranks fourth in renewable energy capacity, second in mobile manufacturing, and first in two-wheeler and tractor production. At the same time, India is the youngest country in the world. It has the third-largest team of scientists and technicians; Whether it's science, technology or innovation, India is clearly at its best.At present, India has announced the establishment of a fund of one trillion rupees (about 84.6 billion yuan) to support the development of India's semiconductor industry and provide up to 50% support for semiconductor manufacturing-related investment.And when it comes to mobile phone manufacturing, India has introduced the PLI program, and its impact is evident across multiple industries. In the last three years alone, India has secured investments worth Rs 125 crore and produced Rs 11 trillion worth of production.By providing subsidies to electronics manufacturers producing locally in India to attract the development of the assembly chain. The first phase of the program, which was launched in 2021, has a budget of 7,350 crore (US$1.02 billion). The PLI 2.0 solution, which will be launched in 2023, has a budget expenditure of about 170 billion rupees (about 14.5 billion yuan), and the products cover smartphones, laptops, tablets, all-in-one computers, servers and ultra-small devices. Companies currently eligible for the PLI subsidy list include local India companies such as Dixon and Tata, Apple industrial chain companies such as Hon Hai, and IT hardware-related companies such as Dell and HP.For example, Dixon's smartphone assembly share has reached 15% of the India market, and its main customers include Chinese brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, Realme, Transsion, and Korea brand customers such as Samsung, which has already had the shadow of China's leading ODM company.At the same time, on the display panel, Tata and Innolux will start a cooperation, while Dixon will set up a joint venture with China Huike. That is to say, the India government and these two major OEM\ODM foundries have begun to complete the semiconductor chip and panel manufacturing in the mobile phone manufacturing supply chain, and the subsequent trend of rapid development has been formed.Once India's mobile phone manufacturing supply chain advantages are established, the competitive advantage of international brands and India local brands in the India market will become extremely small, similar to when China's mobile phone users exceed 1 billion, the ODM-centered mobile phone brand reengineering process will also appear directly in the India market, and India brands have their own local advantages, will there be a similar phenomenon of overseas brands fully withdrawing from the Chinese market, Chinese domestic brands also have to withdraw from the India market, it is really uncertain.India's electronics industry has grown rapidly in the past 10 years, with an output value of $150 billion, and India aims to grow the electronics industry to $500 billion by the end of the decade. With lower labor costs, higher labor productivity and more advantageous manufacturing location, India has also shown a substitution effect on China's manufacturing product exports and foreign investment.In the face of this situation, Chinese mobile phone brand enterprises have quickly taken the brand advantages in the mobile phone field, and used their own brand effect to promote Internet of Things AIOT products to obtain new market growth opportunities in India when the India brand and manufacturing industry have not fully undertaken the market of IoT AIOT products; In the traditional smartphone market, it has begun to shrink its original tactics of machine sea, shifting from focusing on market share to focusing on profit ratio, and optimizing its own operational efficiency in India to cope.A huge India market with 1 billion users, although under the siege of the India government and people, Chinese brands are still dominating most of the market share, but under the impact of huge India power, how can Chinese brands continue to gain a foothold in India, in addition to copying Apple's successful road, there may really not be much way to stop, just like the Chinese market washed out overseas brands, Chinese brands are ready for everything.
