据供应链传出的消息称,苹果正在盘点Vision Pro智能头显供应商手里的零组件库存,并且向唯一量产供应商立讯发出了订单警示,立讯精密可能在下个月开始,将结束Vision的生产。立讯稳定量产后,每天的Vision Pro 产能约为2000 台,目前仅维持在每天最高1000台的水平,苹果总共给了立讯约60万台订单,将于这个月底全部完成,后续仅有少量的返修订单。因此后续立讯及其它供应商该如何处置Vision Pro的生产线,也成了现在供应商们头疼的问题。苹果此前已经表示,将暂停下一代Vision Pro的研发,也没有进一步扩大初代Vision Pro销售数量的准备。不过针对各个供应商手里的库存,苹果已经对供应商表示,将会继续保留这些零组件的采购权,一来是用在后续的售后维修上,二是会尽量追加部分核心元器件产品的订单,把现有的库存物料继续组装成成品,全部给消耗掉。由于苹果初期研发Vision Pro时,主要的结构件和组装工艺,都交给了中国大陆的供应链来开发,各家供应商为了保住自己在苹果供应链的位置,都拿出了最稳妥的高成本方案给苹果交差,在苹果顺利完成初代Vision Pro的产品定型与量产验证的同时,也堆高了初代Vision Pro零组件复杂程度、生产难度和制造成本。事实上,除了几大标准模组和芯片元器件外,多数的零碎零组件都是中国大陆的供应链来完成,这其中除了前期开发成本与沟通成本高,其它地方的供应商不愿花费昂贵的研发成本来争夺一个订单数量不充足的新品订单,只有中国大陆供应商主动承接相关产品研发与试产外,劳动密集型岗位、封闭车间产线岗位在欧美发达经济体越来越没有吸引力,也是重要原因。 初代Vision Pro零件又多又复杂,结构设计也采取很多空间坐标定义,要实现生产自己化难度很高,多数零组件的加工组装工序,只能分解成不同的岗位,由单机或人工来完成,这种作业模式西方先进经济体感兴趣的员工很少,而在其它新兴国家市场,又没有足够的熟练员工。同时,西方先进经济体和新兴国家市场,在这方面的制造技能培训上,也很少有资本支持,同时也很少有人愿意去学习。另外,苹果的核心微显示器供应商索尼,也不愿意冒商业风险扩大产能,并且索尼的态度,也影响了LGD和三星显示,导致苹果的Micro OLED微显器的供应也出现了问题。初代初代Vision Pro的供应链集中在中国大陆,核心供应商索尼也不愿意扩产,导致了愿意大批量购买Vision Pro的行业客户都不敢轻易尝试推广。据对Vision Pro应用效果最好,行业期待最高的医疗行业人士表示,Vision Pro在与内镜手术和手术机器人领域的配合度,曾一度让绝大多数临床医生十分欣赏,因为Vision Pro不但让临床主刀医生可以从不能离开的专业显微镜或作业监视器前摆脱出来,通过Vision Pro的清晰视野与人机协助,来专心完成自己的手术操作,同时还可以多个医生与护理人员一起会诊、观看、监督整个手术过程,尽量减少手术失误、提高诊疗与手术的精准性,甚至可以远程会诊、直播整个手术过程,达到普及、培训优秀、先进术式的目标。然而苹果供应链的不确定性,还是引起了广大医疗行业的担忧,阻止了Vision Pro在医疗器械厂商和医疗诊治行业进一步集成与推广。苹果也曾通过在Micro OLED微显示器领域,扶持一家愿意前期投资的中国大陆企业来说服市场与客户,但在苹果的其它产品如手机、电脑、耳机等,都要开始从中国大陆分流出部分供应链资源来保证供应链稳定安全的情况下,苹果的客户显然不愿意跟着苹果一起冒险。 目前苹果正在研发一款更简易的Vision Pro同类产品,行业称日本显示器厂商JDI正在为其研制一款玻璃基板的Micro OLED微显示器,虽然分辨率没有索尼硅基Micro OLED微显示器高,但显示效果上仍然可以比现在市场上的竞争对手更好,主要是指Meta的Fast LCD头显产品。不过由于要考虑到这款产品能在中国大陆以外的地区也能生产,所以苹果不得不重新对产品进行设计,通过更高的集成度来降低组装难度和生产成本,因此产品的完善时间较长,供应链参与开发的企业表示,至少明年苹果的新一代头显产品不会上市,最早也要到2026年才会有结果出来。苹果的Vision Pro头显产品推广受阻,却并没有阻止行业其它企业跟进的步伐。据产业界调研的信息显示,中国大陆的华为正在同步研发MR和AR两个大类单品,其中MR产品与苹果的Vision Pro设计思路与功能集成十分类似,预计将于今年底之前发布并上市。目前有参与华为产品研发的人士表示,华为的MR产品RAM放置在SoC旁边,SoC的芯片上配备了独立风扇,散热效果较好,因此把电池集成在了MR的绑带后面,以平衡MR前面机头的重量,同时支持高强度的设备运行。华为MR的屏幕则是BOE昆明创视界的1.35寸Micro OLED 4K屏,规格与苹果Vision Pro相近,成本两块显示屏加起来约4000人民币。Pancake模组主要是欧菲光负责,各类动作捕捉摄像头由于要与算法配合,所以全部交给了舜宇,而PID瞳距电机则是瑞声在研发,歌尔则负责全部的声、光、电性能测试与成品组装。供应链评估华为MR总体成本下来接近人民币8000元,主要也是对标苹果Vision Pro的市场。虽然整个虚拟现实硬件市场并没有真正打开,但苹果创新的空间计算平台以及相关理念确实已经深得人心,从各种专业行业传回来的信息,都跟医疗行业类似,苹果Vision Pro的人机交互模式在解放人类双手,与传统生产力无缝结合方面,已经可以满足现在市场的大部分需求,有着巨大的市场想象空间。 而产业界也评估苹果在重新设计产品,解决好供应链配套与生产制造难题后,将会迅速在市场上铺开销量,预计2026年苹果至少能销出1000万台MR头显产品,达到电子消费品单品盈亏平衡点的规模。Luxshare will end production of the Apple Vision Pro next monthEditor: LuceinAccording to the news from the supply chain, Apple is taking stock of the component inventory in the hands of the Vision Pro smart headset supplier, and has issued an order alert to the only mass production supplier Luxshare, which may start next month and will end the production of Vision.After the stable mass production of Luxshare, the daily production capacity of Vision Pro is about 2,000 units, and it is currently only maintained at the maximum level of 1,000 units per day, and Apple has given a total of about 600,000 orders to Luxshare, which will be completed by the end of this month, and there will only be a small number of follow-up orders. Therefore, how to dispose of the production line of Vision Pro by Luxshare and other suppliers has also become a headache for suppliers. Apple has previously said that it will suspend the development of the next-generation Vision Pro, and has no plans to further expand the number of sales of the first-generation Vision Pro. However, in view of the inventory in the hands of various suppliers, Apple has told suppliers that it will continue to retain the right to purchase these components, one is to use it for follow-up after-sales maintenance, and the other is to try to increase the orders of some core component products, and continue to assemble the existing inventory materials into finished products, all of which will be consumed.Since Apple's initial research and development of Vision Pro, the main structural parts and assembly processes were handed over to the supply chain in Chinese mainland for development, in order to maintain their position in Apple's supply chain, each supplier has come up with the most secure high-cost solutions to Apple, while Apple successfully completed the product finalization and mass production verification of the original Vision Pro, it also piled up the complexity of the components of the original Vision Pro, production difficulty and manufacturing costs.In fact, in addition to several standard modules and chip components, most of the fragmented components are completed by the supply chain in Chinese mainland, which in addition to the high cost of early development and communication, suppliers in other places are unwilling to spend expensive R & D costs to compete for a new product order with insufficient number of orders, only Chinese mainland suppliers take the initiative to undertake related product research and development and trial production, labor-intensive positions, closed workshop production line positions in Europe and the United States developed economies are increasingly unattractive, is also an important reason. The first generation of Vision Pro parts are many and complex, the structural design also takes a lot of spatial coordinate definitions, it is very difficult to achieve production itself, most of the components of the processing and assembly process, can only be broken down into different positions, by a single machine or manual to complete, this mode of operation in the western advanced economies interested in the staff is few, and in other emerging countries market, there are not enough skilled employees. At the same time, there is little capital support for manufacturing skills training in advanced economies and emerging markets in the West, and few people are willing to learn.In addition, Sony, Apple's core microdisplay supplier, is also reluctant to take commercial risks to expand production capacity, and Sony's attitude has also affected LGD and Samsung Display, resulting in problems with the supply of Apple's Micro OLED microdisplays.The supply chain of the original Vision Pro is concentrated in Chinese mainland, and the core supplier Sony is also unwilling to expand production, resulting in industry customers who are willing to buy Vision Pro in large quantities are afraid to easily try to promote.According to the medical industry with the best application effect and the highest expectations in the industry, the cooperation between Vision Pro and endoscopic surgery and surgical robots once made the vast majority of clinicians very appreciative, because Vision Pro not only allows clinical surgeons to get rid of the professional microscope or job monitor that cannot be left, but also concentrates on completing their own surgical operations through the clear vision and human-machine assistance of Vision Pro. At the same time, multiple doctors and nursing staff can consult, watch and supervise the entire surgical process together, minimize surgical errors, improve the accuracy of diagnosis and treatment and surgery, and even remotely consult and broadcast the entire surgical process live to achieve the goal of popularization, excellent training and advanced surgical methods. However, the uncertainty of Apple's supply chain has caused concern in the medical industry, preventing the Vision Pro from further integrating and promoting in the medical device manufacturers and medical diagnosis and treatment industry. Apple has also supported a Chinese mainland company willing to invest in the early stage to persuade the market and customers in the field of Micro OLED microdisplays, but Apple's other products such as mobile phones, computers, headphones, etc., have begun to divert some supply chain resources from Chinese mainland to ensure the stability and security of the supply chain, Apple's customers are obviously not willing to take risks with Apple. At present, Apple is developing a simpler Vision Pro similar product, the industry said that Japan display manufacturer JDI is developing a glass-based Micro OLED microdisplay, although the resolution is not as high as Sony's silicon-based Micro OLED microdisplay, but the display effect can still be better than the current competitors in the market, mainly referring to Meta's Fast LCD headset products.However, because it is necessary to consider that this product can be produced outside Chinese mainland, Apple has to redesign the product to reduce assembly difficulty and production costs through higher integration, so the product has a long time to perfect, and the supply chain involved in the development of the company said that at least next year, Apple's new generation of headset products will not be listed, and the results will not come out until 2026 at the earliest.The promotion of Apple's Vision Pro headset product has been blocked, but it has not stopped other companies in the industry from following suit. According to the information of industry research, Huawei in Chinese mainland is simultaneously developing MR and AR two categories of products, of which MR products are very similar to Apple's Vision Pro design ideas and functional integration, and are expected to be released and listed before the end of this year.At present, some people involved in the research and development of Huawei products said that Huawei's MR product RAM is placed next to the SoC, and the SoC chip is equipped with an independent fan to dissipate heat well, so the battery is integrated behind the MR strap to balance the weight of the front head of the MR and support high-intensity equipment operation at the same time. HuaweiMR's screen is BOE Kunming Chuangshi's 1.35-inch Micro OLED 4K screen, which is similar to Apple's Vision Pro, and costs about 4,000 yuan for the two displays. The Pancake module is mainly responsible for OFILM, all kinds of motion capture cameras are handed over to Sunny because they have to cooperate with the algorithm, while the PID interpupillary distance motor is developed by AAC, and Goertek is responsible for all the sound, light, electrical performance testing and finished product assembly. The overall cost of Huawei's MR is close to RMB 8,000 in the supply chain assessment, which is mainly based on the market of Apple's Vision Pro. Although the entire virtual reality hardware market has not really opened, but Apple's innovative spatial computing platform and related concepts have indeed won the hearts of the people, the information transmitted back from various professional industries, are similar to the medical industry, AppleVision Pro's human-computer interaction mode in liberating human hands, and seamless combination with traditional productivity, has been able to meet most of the needs of the current market, has a huge market imagination space. It is expected that Apple will sell at least 10 million MR headsets in 2026, reaching the break-even point of consumer electronics.