就在AMD与英特尔一起建议共同进行X86的创新开发时，英特尔自身的麻烦却并没有得到缓解，反而有更严重的迹象。近日英特尔的重要市场中国内地，消息称中国网络安全协会指出该公司存在网络安全漏洞和高故障率，并指责其在其秘密监控和数字间谍系统中增加后门。该组织强调了几个安全漏洞，包括GhostRace和Indirector攻击，这些漏洞允许恶意攻击者从 CPU 窃取敏感和机密数据。前者影响不同的平台，包括 Arm 处理器，而后者主要影响Raptor Lake和Alder Lake芯片。尽管英特尔声称其后续的补丁更新应该可以保护大多数用户。至于后门指控，目前还没有任何实质性的发现可以证明这一点。根据 Statista 的数据，中国是英特尔 2023 年最大的收入来源，为公司带来了 148.5 亿美元的收入。美国紧随其后，收入为 139.6 亿美元，但如果失去中国，对英特尔来说将是一场巨大的灾难，因为中国占去年超过540 亿美元收入的四分之一以上。其实英特尔的麻烦不仅仅是中国市场的问题，业界认为其最大的问题还是庞大的官僚体系带来的创新困境，以及对新工艺、新材料开发的不严谨，当然，这也是官僚体系带来的弊病，没人愿意为创新带来的风险承担责任，让英特尔的创新只能停留在原理与概念层，出不了实验室。英特尔在年中时发布了一份让外界无法理解的财报，第二季度收入为128亿美元，同比下降1%，毛利率38.7%；GAAP（通用会计准则）下，净利润亏损16亿美元。针对当前的困局，英特尔现任的CEO Pat Gelsinger也承认这一点。他认为，在技术创新屡有成果的当下，公司面对的困境是“成本太高，收益率太低”。“尽管我们在产品和工艺方面取得了进展，但Q2的盈利能力令人失望。” 英特尔表示 Meteor Lake 处理器遇到了产量问题，这些问题对利润产生了负面影响。与财报一同发布的，还有英特尔提出的一项到2025年实现降本100亿美元的计划。具体行动包括裁员、简化产品组合、降低资本支出、暂停派发股息等。其中根据英特尔最近的员工总数 116,500 人计算，裁员人数可能达到 17,475 人。此次裁员也成了英特尔 56 年历史上最严重的裁员之一。 就在近日，英特尔已开始向其位于戈登摩尔公园的工厂的 1,300 名员工发出正式通知，称他们必须在下个月之前继续留在原岗位。此次大规模裁员是该公司裁员15% 以上计划的一部分，也是该公司在遭受巨额损失后扭转局面的计划的一部分。据《俄勒冈人报》报道，此次裁员将影响俄勒冈州超过 5% 的英特尔员工，并将成为该州历史上最大的裁员之一。英特尔为了更好的发展，把自己的半导体制造业务进行了分拆，进入代工市场。同时2023年以来，英特尔相继公布了在美国、欧洲和以色列等多地兴建半导体制造工厂的计划，总投资金额高达千亿美元。晶圆代工业务表现似乎没有那么惊艳。二季度财报显示营收为43亿美元，同比增加4%，环比下降1%。外界认为与英特尔自己的18A制程芯片生产成本过高一样，英特尔的代工业务同样也面临着同样的问题。有消息称，英特尔在最先进的制程上给业内的AI数字交换处理芯片厂商进行了打样，然而送样样品未能通过客户的测试，因此英特尔与三星一样，失去了最新先进制程的AI芯片订单，目前仅剩有苹果主控芯片和英伟达AI数字交换处理芯片量产验证过的台积电，能接到最新制程的CPU与GPU等先进制程订单，也就是台积电目前包揽了市场上先进制程的AI芯片订单。从市场上来看，除选进制程台积电能保持50%左右的利润外，其它14纳米以外的成熟制程晶圆生产，毛利率只有20%左右，如果遇到良率波动，很容易造成亏损，三星和英特尔就是典型的例子。目前英特尔主要依赖白宫《芯片法案》，从联邦政府获得了 85 亿美元的直接投资，不过这些资金要视英特尔的投资进度来发放，所以无法助力英特尔直接走出危机。另外美国军方也给了英特尔一份几十亿美元的新品开发合同，继续为军方提供新型芯片。由于资金困难，英特尔已经宣布暂停一些新的晶圆厂建设，尤其是将 其位于德国的 Fab 29 推迟到 2029 年至2030 年，并有意对外出售整个制造部门来减少亏损的产生。英特尔这个决定也导致了光刻机AMSL调低自己的销售预期，造成整个半导体设备市场震动。英特尔的Fab 29.1 和 Fab
29.2 占地约 81,000 平方米，总长 530 米，宽 153 米。包括用于空调和供暖的屋顶结构，建筑物高度将达到 36.7 米，地下还有几层。建成后将成为近几年欧洲规模最大的晶圆厂。目前高通、ARM都声称有意接手英特尔的业务，资产管理公司阿波罗全球管理公司 (Apollo Global Management Inc.)则向英特尔提供了 50 亿美元的股权类投资，这是继今年 6 月，英特尔同意将其在爱尔兰工厂合资企业中价值 110 亿美元的股份出售给 Apollo，为其大规模扩张计划提供资金后，再次获其投资。不过近日有消息称高通正在等待11月5日美国总统大选的结果，然后再决定是否对英特尔采取行动，甚至有人说，该公司要等到2025年1月美国新总统就职后才会采取行动。高通主要是想接手英特尔的制造业务。而ARM则提出要收购英特尔客户端计算事业部 (CCG) 和数据中心与人工智能 (DCAI) 部门，不过被英特尔拒绝。不过英特尔在前些日子还是发布了首批五款 Arrow Lake 台式机处理器，也就是 Core Ultra 200S 系列，价格从 294 美元的 14 核 Core Ultra 5 245KF 到 589 美元的旗舰级 24 核Core Ultra 9 285K 不等。这些芯片将于 2024 年 10 月 24 日上市。英特尔表示，Arrow
Lake 可将多线程性能提高 15%，单线程性能提高 5%，功耗大幅降低，并在主流台式机芯片中配备首款专用 AI 加速器 (NPU)。英特尔此前透露，上半年AI PC出货量已超过1500万台，比竞争对手的总和还要多出数倍。预计在2024年年底将实现超过4000万台出货，并在2025年底前实现出货量累计超1亿台的目标。英特尔仍会完成其承诺的四年五节点战略，英特尔 18A 有望在今年年底前投入生产，并在 2025 年上半年开始批量生产晶圆。2024 年 7 月英特尔已经向代工客户发布了英特尔 18A 的 1.0 PDK。另外首批两款英特尔 18A 产品，即用于客户端的 Panther Lake（第一款使用 RibbonFet、PowerVia 和先进封装的微处理器）和用于服务器的 Clearwater
Forest，也有望在 2025 年推出。The passing year is unfavorable and Intel
is in big troubleEditor: LucienJust when AMD and Intel proposed to jointly
develop the innovative development of X86, Intel's own troubles have not been
alleviated, but there are signs of more seriousness.
Recently, Chinese mainland, an important
market for Intel, the China Cyber Security Association pointed out that the
company has network security vulnerabilities and high failure rates, and
accused it of adding backdoors to its secret surveillance and digital espionage
systems. The group highlighted several security flaws, including the GhostRace
and Indirector attacks, which allowed malicious actors to steal sensitive and
confidential data from CPUs. The former affects different platforms, including
Arm processors, while the latter mainly affects Raptor Lake and Alder Lake
chips. Although Intel claims that its subsequent patch updates should protect
most users. As for the backdoor allegations, there are no substantial findings
to prove it.According to Statista, China is Intel's
largest source of revenue in 2023, bringing in $14.85 billion in revenue for
the company. United States followed with $13.96 billion in revenue, but losing
China would be a huge disaster for Intel, which accounted for more than a
quarter of last year's revenue of more than $54 billion.In fact, Intel's trouble is not only the
problem of the Chinese market, the industry believes that its biggest problem
is the innovation dilemma brought about by the huge bureaucracy, as well as the
lack of rigor in the development of new processes and new materials, of course,
this is also the disadvantage of the bureaucracy, no one is willing to take
responsibility for the risks brought by innovation, so that Intel's innovation
can only stay at the principle and concept level, and cannot get out of the
laboratory.Intel released an incomprehensible earnings
report in the middle of the year, with revenue of $12.8 billion in the second
quarter, down 1% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 38.7%; Under GAAP
(Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), net income loss was $1.6 billion.In response to the current predicament,
Intel's current CEO Pat Gelsinger also acknowledged this. He believes that at
the moment when technological innovation has repeatedly achieved results, the
dilemma faced by the company is that "the cost is too high and the rate of
return is too low". "Despite the progress we have made in terms of
products and processes, profitability in Q2 has been disappointing." Intel said that Meteor Lake processors were
experiencing yield issues that negatively impacted the bottom line.Along with the earnings report, Intel
proposed a plan to reduce costs by $10 billion by 2025. Specific actions
include layoffs, streamlining product portfolios, reducing capital
expenditures, and suspending dividends. Based on Intel's most recent workforce
of 116,500, the number of layoffs could reach 17,475. The layoffs also became
some of the worst in Intel's 56-year history.Just recently, Intel began issuing formal
notices to its 1,300 employees at its Gordon Moore Park facility that they must
remain in their roles until next month. The massive layoffs are part of the
company's plan to cut more than 15% of its workforce and to turn things around
after suffering huge losses. According to The Oregonian, the layoffs will
affect more than 5% of Intel employees in Oregon and will be one of the largest
layoffs in the state's history.In order to develop better, Intel spun off
its semiconductor manufacturing business and entered the foundry market. At the
same time, since 2023, Intel has successively announced plans to build
semiconductor manufacturing plants in United States, Europe and Israel, with a
total investment of up to 100 billion US dollars. The performance of the
foundry business does not seem to be so impressive. The second-quarter earnings
report showed revenue of $4.3 billion, up 4% year-on-year and down 1%
quarter-on-quarter.The outside world believes that Intel's own
18A process chip production cost is too high, Intel's foundry business is also
facing the same problem. It is reported that Intel has made proofs to the
industry's AI digital switching processing chip manufacturers on the most
advanced process, but the samples sent failed to pass the customer's test, so
Intel, like Samsung, has lost orders for AI chips in the latest advanced
process, and only Apple's main control chip and Nvidia AI are leftTSMC, which
has been verified by the mass production of digital switching processing chips,
can receive orders for advanced processes such as CPUs and GPUs with the latest
processes, that is, TSMC currently has orders for AI chips with advanced
processes in the market.From the perspective of the market, in
addition to TSMC can maintain about 50% of the profit of the selected process,
the gross profit margin of other mature process wafer production other than
14nm is only about 20%, and if the yield fluctuates, it is easy to cause
losses, Samsung and Intel are typical examples.At present, Intel mainly relies on the
White House's "CHIPS Act" to obtain $8.5 billion in direct investment
from the federal government, but these funds are subject to the progress of
Intel's investment, so it cannot help Intel directly out of the crisis. In
addition, the United States military also gave Intel a multi-billion dollar new
product development contract to continue to provide new chips for the military.Due to financial difficulties, Intel has
announced the suspension of some new fab construction, in particular the
postponement of its Fab 29 in Germany until 2029 to 2030, and intends to sell
the entire manufacturing division to reduce losses. Intel's decision also
caused the lithography machine AMSL to lower its sales forecast, causing the
entire semiconductor equipment market to shake.Intel's Fab 29.1 and Fab 29.2 cover an area
of approximately 81,000 square meters, with a total length of 530 meters and a
width of 153 meters. Including the roof structure for air conditioning and
heating, the building will reach a height of 36.7 meters, with several more
floors underground. After completion, it will be the largest wafer fab in
Europe in recent years.At present, Qualcomm and ARM have both
claimed to be interested in taking over Intel's business, and asset management
company Apollo Global Management Inc. The $5 billion equity investment was made
to Intel, following the company's agreement in June to sell its $11 billion
stake in its Ireland factory joint venture to Apollo to fund its massive
expansion plans.However, it has recently been reported that
Qualcomm is waiting for the results of the United States presidential election
on November 5 before deciding whether to take action against Intel, and some
even say that the company will not take action until January 2025 United States
the inauguration of a new president. Qualcomm mainly wants to take over Intel's
manufacturing business.ARM, on the other hand, offered to acquire
Intel's Client Computing Group (CCG) and Data Center and Artificial
Intelligence (DCAI) divisions, but Intel rejected them.However, Intel released the first five
Arrow Lake desktop processors a few days ago, namely the Core Ultra 200S
series, with prices ranging from the $294 14-core Core Ultra 5 245KF to the
$589-level flagship 24-core Core Ultra 9 285K. The chips will be available on
October 24, 2024. Intel says Arrow Lake delivers 15 percent higher
multi-threaded performance and 5 percent higher single-threaded performance,
significantly lower power consumption, and features the first dedicated AI
accelerator (NPU) in a mainstream desktop chip.Intel previously revealed that AI PC
shipments in the first half of the year have exceeded 15 million units, which
is several times more than the combined number of competitors. It is expected
to ship more than 40 million units by the end of 2024 and achieve a cumulative
shipment of more than 100 million units by the end of 2025.Intel remains on track to deliver on its
committed four-year, five-node strategy, with Intel 18A expected to be in
production by the end of this year and begin mass production of wafers in the
first half of 2025. In July 2024, Intel has released the 1.0 PDK for Intel 18A
to foundry customers. The first two Intel 18A products, Panther Lake for
clients (the first microprocessor to use RibbonFet, PowerVia and advanced
packaging) and Clearwater Forest for servers, are also expected to be available
in 2025.
