——做专业的科技财经媒体！
撰文：李星
近日，马斯克旗下的SpaceX正讨论出售内部股票的计划，此举可能将公司估值提升至约2550亿美元。今年6月，SpaceX在进行内部股票交易时的估值为2100亿美元，仅半年时间估值已增长超过20%。此前有消息称，SpaceX计划在12月发起每股约135美元的收购要约，届时公司估值或将突破2500亿美元，再次刷新美国私营公司估值纪录。
SpaceX的“星链”（Starlink）项目推进迅速，目前每周平均发射约60颗卫星，在轨卫星数量已达约7000颗，并计划下月推出“直接连接手机”服务。目前，“星链”已服务近500万用户，而全球卫星宽带市场潜力仍十分巨大。
作为全球电子信息制造的重要基地，台湾在“星链”供应链中占据重要位置。然而，随着马斯克支持的特朗普赢得新一届总统选举，SpaceX供应链管理方面出现重大变化。11月5日，SpaceX向供应商发出企业文件，以“地缘政治风险”为由要求台湾供应商将制造业务搬迁至其他地区。这一要求促使多家台湾制造商加速将产能转移到越南等第三方市场。
事实上，SpaceX早在近年来便要求其台湾和中国大陆供应链企业在第三方市场建立生产基地。例如，敬鹏工业已将新订单生产从台湾转移至泰国；启碁科技已在越南设立生产基地以满足SpaceX订单需求；升达科技也开始在越南投资，满足海外客户的采购需求。
自2018年2月22日SpaceX通过猎鹰九号火箭成功将两颗实验通信卫星送入轨道并完成测试后，公司便加速了低轨通信卫星的部署，同时也推动全球产业链随之提速运转。SpaceX不断扩展的业务和供应链网络，将对全球卫星产业和地缘经济格局产生深远影响。
来自供应链的消息显示，低轨卫星的寿命与高轨卫星显著不同。高轨卫星通常能使用超过15年，而低轨卫星因受空气阻力和地球引力的影响，轨道逐渐下降并最终坠毁，平均寿命仅约5年，接近普通消费电子产品的使用寿命。这种特性使低轨卫星的供应链采购规模和订单持续性备受产业关注。
目前，SpaceX已获批的卫星数量接近12,000颗，与其4.2万颗的目标还相差约30,000颗。为填补这一缺口，SpaceX于2023年10月以太平洋岛国汤加的名义向国际电信联盟申请了29,988颗卫星，这些卫星将分布于288个轨道面上，运行高度为350至614公里。
自2019年以来，SpaceX不断加快“星链”计划的部署。通过降低卫星制造成本、回收复用猎鹰-9火箭一子级，以及高效运转3个发射工位，发射频率大幅提高。从2020年平均每26天发射一批优化到2024年平均每4.32天发射一批，频率提升了约6倍。目前，猎鹰-9火箭的近地轨道运载能力达17.5吨，可一次发射60颗V1.0卫星、53颗V1.5卫星或23颗V2mini卫星。
低轨星座的大规模部署需要在短时间内完成卫星的设计、生产、测试和发射，这不仅对火箭的运载能力提出了高要求，也对传统卫星的小批量生产模式构成了巨大挑战。为此，SpaceX采用“规模化批量生产”的先进理念，从设计阶段就注重制造可行性，同时推行设计与制造协同的策略。设计人员直接参与制造过程，与生产团队紧密沟通，建立高效的反馈机制，从而大幅提高生产效率和质量。
此外，“星链”在短短几年内已不再仅仅是一个商业计划，其潜在的军事能力也能有效满足政府和国防需求。2022年，SpaceX宣布启动“星盾”（Starshield）计划，专为国防部等政府重点用户提供集遥感、通信和载荷搭载等服务于一体的综合解决方案。该计划充分利用“星链”技术和SpaceX的发射能力，为国防需求提供支持。未来，“星链”卫星可携带多种载荷，广泛应用于通信中继、情报侦察、目标指示与打击引导、预警探测及防御拦截等军事领域，为政府和军事行动提供全方位支持。
因此，马斯克在推动“星链”部署、运营以及确保供应链安全方面，不得不投入更多努力。由于台湾涉及多个敏感的地缘政治热点，“星链”在部署时不得不避开台湾，以避免卷入相关冲突。尤其是在特朗普执政后，其政策理念部分借鉴了“二战”时期丘吉尔的思路，放松资本监管的同时，也试图推动国土边界回归“二战”胜利时的“共识”状态，这无疑触及了各方对“二战”后国土利益的努力与诉求。
卫星产业链涵盖了五大关键组件：上游元件（如芯片、PCB）、卫星接收天线和相关部件（包括天线、外壳、支架、内部微波元件、功率放大器）、缆线、电源供应器和网络通信设备。这些领域在制造工艺上与现有的通信设备产业链高度重叠，也是台湾企业的优势所在。在地面设备方面，由于无需进入太空，技术门槛较低且保密性要求不高，台湾厂商能够较容易地切入市场。
自2019年起，台湾供应商开始真正参与“星链”配套生产合作。随着“星链”发射规模的扩大和地面应用推广加速，双方的合作金额逐步增长，一些台湾企业甚至将其发展为主营核心业务。
然而，“星链”业务在台湾的发展面临两大主要冲突。首先是安全影响，台湾认为，SpaceX与特斯拉同为马斯克控制的企业，而特斯拉在中国大陆的业务是其核心利益之一。这引发了台湾方面对“星链”合作可能影响其安全的担忧，使相关行政许可程序迟迟无法通过，导致SpaceX表达不满。
其次是俄乌冲突事件的影响。自2022年初俄乌冲突爆发以来，“星链”为乌方提供了支持，这引发部分台湾企业对SpaceX处理方式的不认同。同时又有部分台湾企业加大了对俄罗斯的市场开拓，承接越来越多的俄罗斯业务，这些台湾厂商在容易遭遇美方制裁的同时，也主动逐渐减少与“星链”的合作，导致台湾在“星链”供应链体系中的份额逐步下降。
所有这些因素加在一起，使台湾与“星链”的合作在一定程度上受阻，对双方的长期关系和产业链布局带来了复杂挑战。
根据台湾经济部门及行业数据，台湾约有50家企业生产卫星通信相关的地面设备和敏感零部件，2023年，这些产业的产值超过2000亿新台币（约合人民币445亿元）。供应链消息指出，SpaceX在台湾有十几家直接供货商，同时这些供货商还依赖数十家岛内上游承包商提供支持。
然而，为了确保供应链的长远安全，SpaceX对台湾供应商提出了更高要求。这些企业要么在第三方市场设立新的稳定生产基地以符合需求，要么不得不选择退出与SpaceX的合作。这一转变对台湾相关产业链的调整和未来发展将带来深远影响。
去年3月，美国组织了一场被称为“史上最大规模”的越南商务代表团，SpaceX名列其中。彼时，SpaceX表示正在寻求向越南及东南亚其他国家提供其卫星互联网服务。
自去年年中起，SpaceX通过其星链卫星向越南提供通信服务的计划已与当地政府展开数月谈判。然而，今年2月有消息称，这一谈判暂时陷入停滞。
SpaceX计划在越南部署互联网服务，旨在促进教育发展和防灾工作。但谈判受阻的主要原因在于公司所有权问题。越南法律规定，外资在此类公司的持股比例不得超过50%，而SpaceX则希望对其越南子公司拥有控股权。
不过，近期越南新一届领导班子访美期间，越南政府透露正在重新审议SpaceX的投资提案，并要求该公司积极配合完成投资准备工作。
Musk's "Starlink" bypasses Taiwan
Editor: Lucien
Recently, Musk's SpaceX is discussing plans to sell its internal shares, a move that could raise the company's valuation to about $255 billion. In June, SpaceX was valued at $210 billion when it traded its shares internally, and its valuation has grown by more than 20% in just six months. Previously, it was reported that SpaceX plans to launch a takeover offer of about $135 per share in December, when the company's valuation may exceed $250 billion, once again setting a new valuation record for private companies in the United States.
SpaceX's Starlink program is moving fast, with an average of about 60 satellites being launched each week, and about 7,000 satellites in orbit, with plans to launch a "direct to mobile phone" service next month. At present, "Starlink" has served nearly 5 million users, and the global satellite broadband market potential is still very huge.
As an important base for global electronic information manufacturing, Taiwan occupies an important position in the "Starlink" supply chain. However, with Musk-backed Trump winning the new presidential election, there have been significant changes in SpaceX's supply chain management. On Nov. 5, SpaceX issued corporate documents to suppliers asking Taiwanese suppliers to relocate manufacturing operations to other regions, citing "geopolitical risks." This requirement has prompted several Taiwanese manufacturers to accelerate the transfer of production capacity to third-party markets such as Vietnam.
In fact, SpaceX has asked its supply chain companies in Taiwan and Chinese mainland to set up production bases in third-party markets in recent years. For example, Jingpeng Industries has shifted production of new orders from Taiwan to Thailand; Qiqi Technology has set up a production base in Vietnam to meet the demand of SpaceX orders; SITA Technology has also started to invest in Vietnam to meet the sourcing needs of overseas customers.
Since February 22, 2018, when SpaceX successfully launched two experimental communications satellites into orbit and completed testing on a Falcon 9 rocket, the company has accelerated the deployment of low-orbit communications satellites and accelerated the operation of the global industrial chain. SpaceX's expanding business and supply chain network will have a profound impact on the global satellite industry and geo-economic landscape.
Information from the supply chain shows that the lifespan of low-orbit satellites is significantly different from that of high-orbit satellites. High-orbit satellites usually last more than 15 years, while low-orbit satellites gradually decline and eventually crash due to the influence of air resistance and the earth's gravity, with an average lifespan of only about 5 years, which is close to the lifespan of ordinary consumer electronics. This feature makes the supply chain procurement scale and order sustainability of LEO satellites attract much attention from the industry.
Currently, SpaceX has nearly 12,000 approved satellites, about 30,000 short of its target of 42,000. To fill this gap, SpaceX applied to the International Telecommunication Union in October 2023 for 29,988 satellites on behalf of the Pacific island nation of Tonga, which will be spread over 288 orbital planes and operate at altitudes ranging from 350 to 614 kilometers.
Since 2019, SpaceX has been accelerating the deployment of the Starlink program. By reducing the cost of satellite manufacturing, recycling and reusing a sub-stage of the Falcon-9 rocket, and efficiently operating three launch stations, the launch frequency has been greatly increased. From an average of 26 days in 2020 to an average of 4.32 days in 2024, the frequency has been increased by about 6 times. At present, the Falcon-9 rocket has a low-Earth orbit carrying capacity of 17.5 tons and can launch 60 V1.0 satellites, 53 V1.5 satellites or 23 V2mini satellites at a time.
The large-scale deployment of low-earth orbit constellations requires the design, production, testing and launch of satellites in a short time, which not only puts forward high requirements for the carrying capacity of rockets, but also poses a huge challenge to the low-volume production mode of traditional satellites. To this end, SpaceX adopts the advanced concept of "large-scale mass production", focusing on manufacturing feasibility from the design stage, and at the same time implementing a strategy of design and manufacturing collaboration. Designers are directly involved in the manufacturing process, communicate closely with the production team, and establish an efficient feedback mechanism, so as to greatly improve production efficiency and quality.
In addition, in just a few years, Starlink has become more than just a business plan, and its potential military capabilities can effectively meet government and defense needs. In 2022, SpaceX announced the launch of the "Starshield" program, which is designed to provide comprehensive solutions integrating remote sensing, communications, and payload boarding services for key government users such as the Ministry of Defense. The program leverages Starlink technology and SpaceX's launch capabilities to support defense needs. In the future, the "Starlink" satellite can carry a variety of payloads, and is widely used in military fields such as communication relay, intelligence reconnaissance, target designation and strike guidance, early warning detection, and defense and interception, providing all-round support for the government and military operations.
Therefore, Musk has to put more effort into promoting the deployment and operation of "Starlink" and ensuring the security of the supply chain. Due to Taiwan's involvement in a number of sensitive geopolitical hotspots, Starlink had to avoid Taiwan when deploying to avoid getting involved in related conflicts. Especially after Trump took office, his policy concept partly borrowed from Churchill's ideas during World War II, and while relaxing capital regulation, it also tried to promote the return of territorial borders to the "consensus" state of victory in World War II, which undoubtedly touched on the efforts and demands of all parties for territorial interests after World War II.
The satellite industry chain covers five key components: upstream components (such as chips, PCBs), satellite receiving antennas and related components (including antennas, housings, brackets, internal microwave components, power amplifiers), cables, power supplies and network communication equipment. These areas are highly overlapping with the existing communication equipment industry chain in terms of manufacturing processes, which is also the advantage of Taiwanese enterprises. In terms of ground equipment, because there is no need to enter space, the technical threshold is low and the confidentiality requirements are not high, Taiwanese manufacturers can easily enter the market.
Since 2019, Taiwanese suppliers have begun to truly participate in the "Starlink" supporting production cooperation. With the expansion of the scale of "Starlink" launch and the acceleration of ground application promotion, the amount of cooperation between the two sides has gradually increased, and some Taiwanese companies have even developed it into their main core business.
However, the development of the "Starlink" business in Taiwan faces two major conflicts. The first is the security implications, Taiwan believes that SpaceX and Tesla are both Musk-controlled companies, and Tesla's business in Chinese mainland is one of its core interests. This has raised concerns in Taiwan that the "Starlink" cooperation may affect its security, and the relevant administrative licensing process has been delayed, causing SpaceX to express dissatisfaction.
The second is the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022, "Starlink" has provided support to the Ukrainian side, which has caused some Taiwanese companies to disagree with SpaceX's handling method. At the same time, some Taiwanese companies have increased their market development in Russia and undertaken more and more Russian business, and these Taiwanese manufacturers have also taken the initiative to gradually reduce their cooperation with "Starlink" while being vulnerable to US sanctions, resulting in a gradual decline in Taiwan's share of the "Starlink" supply chain system.
All these factors have hindered the cooperation between Taiwan and "Starlink" to a certain extent, and brought complex challenges to the long-term relationship between the two sides and the layout of the industrial chain.
According to Taiwan's economic sector and industry data, there are about 50 companies in Taiwan that produce ground equipment and sensitive components related to satellite communications, and the output value of these industries will exceed NT$200 billion (about 44.5 billion yuan) in 2023. Supply chain sources point out that SpaceX has more than a dozen direct suppliers in Taiwan, and these suppliers also rely on dozens of upstream contractors on the island for support.
However, in order to ensure the long-term security of the supply chain, SpaceX has put forward higher requirements for Taiwanese suppliers. These companies will either set up new stable production bases in third-party markets to meet demand, or they will have to opt out of their partnership with SpaceX. This change will have a far-reaching impact on the adjustment and future development of Taiwan's related industrial chains.
