市场对即将到来的碳酸锂旺季持谨慎乐观态度
Market cautiously optimistic about lithium carbonate's upcoming peak season
Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）从银河期货分析师处获悉，交易商对即将到来的9月和10月中国电池市场旺季持谨慎乐观态度。
Traders are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming peak season of September and October in the Chinese battery market,Kallanish learns from Galaxy Futures analysts.
分析师们在周三的网络研讨会上说：“9月份电池工厂接到的订单大幅增加。下游市场依靠客户供应和长期协议维持刚性需求采购，观望情绪浓厚。一些订单不佳的材料厂甚至在出售碳酸锂库存。”
“Orders received by battery factories increased significantly in September,” the analysts said in a webinar on Wednesday. “The downstream market relies on customer supply and long-term agreements to maintain rigid demand purchases, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Some material factories with poor orders are even selling their lithium carbonate inventories.”
该中国经纪商称，数据显示冶炼厂的库存仍处于高位，而下游库存已接近过去几年的最高水平，这表明累积的库存正在向下游传导。
The Chinese broker says that data shows that inventories at smelters remain at high levels while downstream inventories are close to the highest levels of the past few years, indicating that the accumulated storage is transmitted downstream.
7月份冶炼厂的碳酸锂库存超过5万吨，达到2021-2024年期间的7月最高水平。2023年7月，库存约为3.5万吨，2022年和2021年7月为1万吨。
Accordingly, in July, lithium carbonate inventories accumulated at smelters exceeded 50,000 tonnes, reaching the highest July level during 2021-2024. In July 2023, inventories were around 35,000 t; up from the 10,000 t seen in July 2022 and 2021.
下游库存在7月份达到约3万吨，创下2021-2024年期间的历史新高。2023年7月的库存约为1.25万吨，2021年7月约为2.5万吨。2022年的库存量与今年持平。
Meanwhile, downstream stockpiles reached about 30,000 t in July, hitting an all-time high during 2021-2024. These inventories were roughly 12,500 t in July 2023 and almost 25,000 t in July 2021. In 2022, volumes were around the same level as this year.
同时，银河期货指出，每周库存显示去库存压力不断增加。目前，冶炼厂、下游企业和其他企业的碳酸锂库存约为13万吨。
At the same time, Galaxy Futures notes that weekly inventories show increasing inventory pressure to destock. Currently, lithium carbonate inventories at smelters, downstream and others stand at around 130,000 t.
分析人士称，广州期货交易所碳酸锂仓单已基本恢复到7月底集中注销前的水平，且仍在增加。仓单是一种用于确保在经批准的设施中储存的商品的质量和数量的文件。它赋予持有人对所代表货物的所有权。工业客户有时利用仓单注销来改变市场的价格预期。
The analysts say the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have basically returned to the level before the centralised cancellation at the end of July, and are still increasing. A warehouse receipt is a document that is used to ensure the quality and quantity of a commodity that is stored in an approved facility. It gives the holder ownership of the goods it represents. Industrial clients sometimes use warehouse receipt cancellation to change the market’s price expectation.
银河期货预计，9月份中国碳酸锂总供应量将环比小幅增长4%，达到6.5万吨。银河期货预计，1-9月的供应量将同比增长49%。
In September, Galaxy Futures expects the total lithium carbonate supply in China to have a small on-month increase of 4% to 65,000 t. For January-September, it expects supply to increase 49% year-on-year.
分析师称：“8月份，除盐湖全面产销外，锂辉石、锂云母冶炼企业均减产，碳酸锂产量月环比下降2.8%。7月份，受智利船期和阿根廷发货量增加的影响，中国进口碳酸锂2.41万吨。预计8月和9月进口量将环比下降至2万吨以下。”
“In August, except for the full production and sales of salt lakes, spodumene and lepidolite smelters all reduced production, and the output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.8% month-on-month,” the analysts reveal. “In July, China imported 24,100 t of lithium carbonate due to the Chilean shipping schedule and increased shipments from Argentina. It is expected that imports will drop month-on-month to less than 20,000 t in August and September.”
截至周三，广州期货交易所9月份交割的碳酸锂期货合约结算价为7.4万元人民币/吨（10,396美元/吨），10月份合约结算价为74,150元人民币/吨。
As of Wednesday, GFEX’s lithium carbonate futures for September delivery settled at CNY 74,000/t ($10,396/t) while the October contract settled at CNY 74,150/t.
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