国际认同的贸易效应：来自市场经济地位的证据
The Trade Effect of International Recognition: Evidence from Market Economy Status
《财经研究》2024年50卷第10期 页码：139-153 online：2024年10月3日
作者
中：罗长远1 , 李铮2
英：Luo Changyuan1, Li Zheng2
作者单位：1. 复旦大学 世界经济研究所，上海 200433; 2. 复旦大学 经济学院，上海 200433
摘要及关键词
摘要：为了理解国际贸易认同对中国出口贸易的影响，文章使用2002—2017年中国出口贸易数据，以市场经济地位为例，检验了国际认同的贸易效应。研究发现，相比于其他国家和地区，贸易伙伴承认中国市场经济地位后，中国对其出口显著增加，这一结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。机制研究发现：一方面，市场经济地位可以减少贸易伙伴对华反倾销以及中国面临的贸易政策不确定性，减轻反倾销和贸易政策不确定性对中国出口的消极影响；另一方面，市场经济地位也可以改善贸易伙伴与中国的双边政治关系，强化双边政治关系对中国出口的积极作用。影响途径的分析表明：市场经济地位可以同时沿着扩展边际和集约边际促进中国出口增长，主要通过提高数量和提升价格促进出口增长，但对出口质量影响不显著。影响效果的分析表明：市场经济地位对中国出口的促进作用对于同质品和反倾销密集的产品更明显，且该作用具有一定的空间溢出效应；此外，市场经济地位同时降低了中国对贸易伙伴的反倾销，有助于双方形成良好的经贸关系。文章的发现为理解市场经济地位对中国出口贸易的影响提供了经验证据，也为中国争取国际认同提供了参考依据。
关键词：国际认同；市场经济地位；出口贸易
Summary: Taking market economy status (MES) as an example, this paper uses China’s export data from 2002 to 2017 to study the trade effect of international recognition. Baseline estimation shows that China increases its exports to trading partners who have recognized China’s MES compared to those have not. Mechanism testing reveals that, on the one hand, MES could reduce the anti-dumping against China and China’s trade policy uncertainty, as well as mitigate the negative impact of anti-dumping and trade policy uncertainty; on the other hand, MES could improve the bilateral political relations between trading partners and China, and strengthen the positive role of bilateral political relations. Influence path analysis shows that MES promotes China’s exports along both extensive and intensive margin; and MES simultaneously increases China’s export quantity and export price, but has no significant impact on export quality. Effect analysis shows that the promotion effect of MES on China’s exports is stronger for homogeneous products and anti-dumping intensive products, and is spatially spillover. The findings of this paper provide empirical evidence for a comprehensive understanding of the impact and significance of MES on China’s export trade, and also provide a reference for China to fight for international recognition. First, as a typical case of international recognition, MES can reduce the anti-dumping against China and China’s trade policy uncertainty, and improve the bilateral political relations between trading partners and China, thus promoting China’s export trade. Therefore, China needs to transfer the achievements of market economy construction in a timely manner and transform international recognition into real economic value. Second, MES has a limited effect on the quality of China’s export products. Therefore, for trading partners that have recognized China’s MES, it is necessary to further maintain the long-term bilateral cooperative relationship of trust and mutual benefit, regulate Chinese enterprises’ export and reduce their myopic and speculative behaviors, and encourage enterprises to carry out quality competition strategies, thus promoting the high-quality development of China’s trade. Third, MES is only one example of international recognition. In the face of increasingly fierce international competition, China should steadily expand the institutional opening up of rules, regulations, management, and standards, and strive to win new international recognition in high-level opening up.
Key words: international recognition; market economy status; export trade
其他信息
DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20240813.302
收稿日期：2024-03-08
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目（21&ZD075）
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