共建“一带一路”能够缓解中美贸易摩擦的负面冲击吗？
文摘
财经
2024-11-05 09:30
上海
共建“一带一路”能够缓解中美贸易摩擦的负面冲击吗？
Can the Belt and Road Initiative Alleviate the Negative Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction?
《财经研究》2024年50卷第9期 页码：124-138 online：2024年9月3日
中：李小平 , 张胄 , 彭书舟
英：Li Xiaoping, Zhang Zhou, Peng Shuzhou
作者单位：中南财经政法大学 经济学院, 湖北 武汉430073
摘要：共建“一带一路”是重塑全球经贸格局的重要动力。在中美大国博弈背景下，共建“一带一路”能否成为中国化解贸易保护主义威胁的有效途径？为了回答上述问题，文章基于GTAP模型，量化模拟了共建“一带一路”对中美贸易摩擦不利影响的缓解效应及其结构效应。研究发现：（1）“一带一路”沿线贸易成本降低能够有效对冲中美贸易成本高企对中国经济造成的负面冲击，多元化的进口来源有助于弥补中国农产品和矿产品等大宗商品的供给缺口，但短期内未能化解由中美关税成本上升所带来的整体需求风险；（2）与中国进行产能合作将释放“一带一路”共建国家的资本品需求，进而有利于提升中国资本品产出规模，使得贸易摩擦导致的产出下滑趋势得以扭转；（3）随着“一带一路”共建国家产业基础的完善和需求潜力的释放，“一带一路”沿线将成为中国出口扩张的重要通道，并与经济“内循环”引致的本土技术进步共同对经济增长形成协同提升效应。上述研究结论表明，共建“一带一路”对于化解贸易保护主义风险具有重要的政策含义。
关键词：共建“一带一路”；中美贸易摩擦；贸易成本；缓解；GTAP模型
Summary: After the global financial crisis, the wave of anti-globalization swept across the world. To promote global rebalancing, China and the United States have adopted distinctly different trade policies. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an open platform proposed by China that focuses on promoting economic cooperation through lowering trade costs and facilitating trade connectivity, which has emerged as a significant effort in reshaping the global economic and trade landscape. By contrast, the unilateral trade friction initiated by the Trump administration in 2018 led to increased global trade costs and the widespread propagation of trade protectionism worldwide. However, there are few studies examining the role of China’s multidimensional trade policy adjustments under the BRI in countering the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction. This undoubtedly hinders a comprehensive understanding of the significance of BRI in mitigating risks posed by trade protectionism. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and the GTAP 11.0 database, this paper quantitatively evaluates the role of BRI in mitigating the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction from both static and dynamic perspectives. The results show that the reduction in trade costs along the Belt and Road can effectively offset the negative impact of increased trade costs between China and the US on China’s economy. Diversified import sources help bridge the supply gaps for major commodities such as agricultural and mineral products in China, although they have not yet fully addressed the demand gap in the short term. The relocation of industrial transfer from China to BRI partners can stimulate their demand for capital goods, thus boost a rise in China’s capital goods output, which contributes to the reversion of output decline after the trade friction. From a dynamic standpoint, with the improvement of the industrial foundations of BRI partners and the release of demand potential, the Belt and Road is poised to emerge as a pivotal conduit for China’s export expansion. The academic values of this paper are as follows: First, it focuses on the economic effect of changes in trade costs in the anti-globalization era. Second, it employs the newly developed GTAP 11.0 database to evaluate the static and dynamic effects of multidimensional trade policy adjustments and the trends of China’s sectoral output changes. Third, it emphasizes critical policy implications of high-quality BRI in mitigating the challenges posed by trade protectionism and China’s output adjustment.
Key words: the Belt and Road Initiative; Sino-US trade friction; trade costs; alleviate; GTAP model
DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20240515.201
收稿日期：2023-08-21
基金项目: 国家社会科学基金重大项目（18ZDA038）；国家社会科学基金项目（22VRC148）；国家社会科学基金青年项目（23CJL009）
