他们为何排放？——预期业绩参考点依赖对企业碳排放的影响研究
Why do They Emit? A Study on the Impact of Expected Performance Reference Point Dependence on Enterprise Carbon Emissions
《财经研究》2024年50卷第9期 页码：94-108 online：2024年9月3日
作者
中：张柯 , 钱晶 , 方时姣
英：Zhang Ke, Qian Jing, Fang Shijiao
作者单位：中南财经政法大学 经济学院，湖北 武汉430073
摘要及关键词
摘要：企业作为碳排放的主要主体，如何降低其碳排放一直都是学界探讨的重点。然而，当前研究未回答“他们为何排放”这一问题。文章基于2008—2022年沪深A股上市公司数据，探讨企业预期业绩参考点依赖对碳排放的影响，回答了企业“为何排放”“他们是谁”的问题。研究发现：（1）由于企业普遍具有预期业绩参考点依赖特征，所以企业的碳排放强度会受预期业绩参考点依赖的影响，这回答了“为何排放”；而“他们”则是实际业绩低于预期业绩参考点的企业，这些企业为追逐预期业绩参考点，便会增加碳排放强度。（2）预期业绩参考点依赖主要是通过损失厌恶与风险偏好机制对碳排放强度产生影响，具体表现为增加了企业研发投入与寻租、降低了绿色创新与环保投入。（3）预期业绩参考点依赖的影响在企业产权性质、行业污染特征及地区环境规制强度层面存在异质性。（4）进一步分析表明，企业使实际业绩回到预期业绩参考点的原因在于增加市值及缓解碳排放强度带来的不良经济后果；同时，相较于“向后看”的行业—历史业绩参考点依赖而言，企业会更在意“向前看”的预期业绩参考点依赖。文章的结论有利于加深对企业碳排放行为的认识，能为促进中国双碳目标的实现提供更具有针对性的对策建议。
关键词：预期业绩；参考点依赖；企业碳排放
Summary: As the “Dual Carbon” goal continues to be promoted, enterprises, as the main emitter of carbon dioxide, have always been the focus of discussion in the academic community on how to reduce their carbon emissions. Current research focuses more on the drivers of enterprise emission reductions, ignoring the drivers of enterprise emission increases. Therefore, based on the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2008 to 2022, this paper explores the impact of expected performance reference point dependence on enterprise carbon emissions and specifically answers the questions of “why They emit” and “who They are”. The study shows that Chinese enterprises are generally characterized by expected performance reference point dependence, so enterprises’ carbon emission intensity will be further significantly affected by expected performance reference point dependence; and “They” are enterprises whose actual performance is lower than the expected performance reference point, which leads to the increase of carbon emission intensity to chase the expected performance reference point. Mechanism testing reveals that the impact of expected performance reference point dependence on carbon emission intensity is mainly realized through the mechanisms of loss aversion and risk preference, which is manifested in the fact that expected performance reference point dependence increases R&D investment and rent-seeking, and reduces green innovation and environmental protection investment. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the impact of expected performance reference point dependence on carbon emission intensity is somewhat heterogeneous under the nature of corporate property rights, industry pollution characteristics, and regional environmental regulation intensity. Further analysis reveals that enterprises’ desire to bring actual performance back to the expected performance reference point is driven by the need to increase market capitalization and mitigate the negative economic consequences of enterprise carbon intensity. The main contributions of this paper are that: First, it focuses more on “why They emit”, and analyzes the drivers of enterprises’ increased carbon emissions. Second, it tests whether the performance reference point dependence feature is prevalent among enterprises, and verifies the different impacts of performance reference point dependence gap and surplus on enterprise carbon emissions. Third, it adopts expected performance as a performance reference point to explore its impact on enterprise carbon emissions, enriching the literature on corporate behavior.
Key words: expected performance; reference point dependence; enterprise carbon emissions
其他信息
DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20240718.301
收稿日期：2024-01-28
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