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Exam56物流货运代理网专注于国际货运代理、物流行业的深度研究和专项考试分析，帮助小伙伴提升行业的认知和积累。
根据Freightos的一项最新分析，11月下旬通常是跨太平洋海运的淡季。然而，上周跨太平洋海运价格保持稳定，自10月中旬以来已上涨至每标准箱（FEU）超过5000美元，而本周到目前为止，东海岸的价格已经超过了6000美元/FEU。
Freightos研究主管Judah Levine指出，这种汇率优势可能反映了一些托运人在预期1月15日后国际码头工人协会（ILA）可能在东海岸和墨西哥湾港口再次罢工以及明年特朗普政府提高关税之前所做的提前投入。
他说：“通过社交媒体，当选总统特朗普宣布，为了应对从墨西哥和加拿大进入美国的非法毒品和移民问题，他打算在1月上任的第一天对来自这些国家的所有进口商品征收25%的关税，这加剧了托运人对本周关税上调的担忧。”
他还分别宣布，他计划对所有中国进口商品征收10%的关税，但没有具体日期。
竞选关税计划升级
莱文指出，就加拿大和墨西哥而言，这一宣布是特朗普早些时候竞选声明的“升级”，该声明提议对所有国家的所有进口商品征收10%-20%的关税。
Freightos研究负责人表示：“就预期的时间表而言，这是一个重大的发展，将打破特朗普总统任期内的第一个USMCA贸易协定。”
分析指出，特朗普在第一届政府期间引入关税所依据的贸易法案规定了包括启动调查、美国贸易代表等政府机构的调查和审查期在内的程序，审查期可以加快，但最长可分配一年。
莱文说：“特朗普之前提高关税的途径可能会使新关税不太可能在1月20日生效，但这一公告肯定会增加这些航线上托运人的紧迫感。”
他补充道：“正如跨太平洋托运人已经在明年潜在的关税变化之前提前装货一样，这一声明也可能给加拿大和墨西哥的进口商带来压力，并可能导致在潜在的关税推出之前增加跨境运输量和公路和铁路费率。”
Freightos表示，墨西哥当局已经在急于增加集装箱港口和跨境铁路运力，以跟上与美国贸易的快速增长，以及过去几年从中国到墨西哥的进口零部件和货物的激增。
与此同时，正如2017年以来与中国的贸易战导致美国进口商从中国转向其他国家一样，这些增长可能会减缓墨西哥与美国贸易的近期增长。
Levine表示，除了关税前产量和运输成本增加以及关税后需求下降外，进口商和最终消费者还可能面临关税带来的更高成本，特别是对于墨西哥和加拿大的主要出口产品，如汽车、汽车零部件（经常多次跨境往返）和燃料，因为加拿大是美国最大的原油出口国。
他补充说，与此同时，尽管过去几个月洛杉矶/长滩等枢纽的海洋流量强劲，但拥堵程度仍然很小。
在加拿大，最近两岸港口劳动力的封锁导致了一些积压，需要几周的时间才能完全解决。
分析称：“政府命令结束了这些中断，双方同意进行调解，而不是政府命令的仲裁。但工会对复工令的合法性提出了质疑，劳资关系委员会将于12月听取这一质疑。”
对于亚欧地区，11月初的GRI海运费率上涨了30%，尽管有人试图在月中上调，但此后一直保持在这一水平左右。过去几天，亚洲-地中海价格确实上涨了10%以上。
莱文表示，有更多报道称需求有所反弹，可能是从年初到农历新年前的高峰期。
尽管如此，他指出，即使最近空白航班增加和年初，12月旨在将利率推高至6000美元/FEU以上的GRI是否会坚持下去，仍有很多人持怀疑态度。
航空货运高峰尚未实现
Freightos的分析称，一些航空公司警告这些航线上的托运人，随着欧盟新的排放法规生效，明年的价格将会上涨。
在航空货运方面，Levine表示，尽管预计今年的旺季将是混乱的——由于B2C电子商务量一直保持紧张，全年运费都在上涨——但除中国外的价格仍未飙升，航空公司报告说，即使在12月临近之际，他们也很忙，但并没有不堪重负。
Levine说：“这些航线和提前调整和规划的托运人的运力增加可能足以防止年底出现极端的运价攀升和拥堵。”
President-elect Donald Trump's recent announcement of plans to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada on his first day in office has added even more uncertainty to international trade.
According to a new Freightos analysis, late November is typically a slow season for transpacific ocean freight. But through last week transpacific ocean rates remained level and elevated at more than US$5,000/FEU since mid-October, with prices to the East Coast climbing past the US$6,000/FEU so far this week.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted that this rate strength probably reflects some frontloading ahead of both a possible renewed ILA strike at East Coast and Gulf ports after January 15 and anticipation of Trump administration tariff increases next year.
"President-elect Trump threw some gas on the fire of shipper concerns over tariff hikes this week by announcing via social media, in response to illegal drugs and immigrants entering the US from Mexico and Canada, his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from these countries on his first day in office in January," he said.
He also separately announced his intention to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports with no date specified.
Escalation of campaign tariff plans
Levine pointed out that, in terms of Canada and Mexico, this announcement is "an escalation" of an earlier Trump campaign statement, proposing 10%-20% tariffs on all imports from all countries.
"[This] is a significant development in terms of the intended timeline and would break with the first Trump presidency's USMCA trade agreement," the Freightos head of research said.
The analysis noted that the trade acts that Trump relied upon for tariff introductions during his first administration stipulate processes that include initiations of inquiries, investigations by government offices like the US Trade Representative and periods of review, which can be expedited but are allotted up to a year.
"Trump's paths to those previous tariff increases may make it unlikely that new tariffs will go into effect on January 20, but this proclamation is certainly increasing the sense of urgency for shippers on these lanes," Levine said.
"Just as transpacific shippers are already frontloading ahead of potential tariff changes next year, this statement will likely put pressure on importers from Canada and Mexico as well and could lead to increased cross-border volumes and road and rail rates ahead of the potential tariff rollouts," he added.
Freightos said authorities in Mexico are already rushing to increase container port and cross-border rail capacity to keep up with the rapid growth in trade with the US and the accompanied surge in imported components and goods from China to Mexico over the last few years.
Meanwhile, just as the trade war with China since 2017 has led to some US importer diversification from China, these increases could slow the recent growth in Mexico-US trade.
Levine said in addition to higher volumes and transportation costs ahead of tariffs and lower demand just after, importers and, ultimately, consumers will likely face higher costs from the tariffs, especially for the top Mexico and Canada exports like vehicles, auto parts — which often go back and forth cross-border several times — and possibly fuel, as Canada is the largest exporter of crude oil to the US.
He added that, in the meantime, despite the ocean volume strength of the last few months in hubs like Los Angeles/Long Beach, congestion remains minimal.
In Canada, recent lockouts of port labour on both coasts resulted in some backlogs that will take another couple of weeks to resolve completely.
"Those disruptions were ended by government order, and the sides have agreed to enter mediation rather than government-ordered arbitration. But the unions have submitted a challenge to the legality of the back-to-work order, which will be heard by the Industrial Relations Board in December," the analysis said.
For Asia-Europe, ocean rates increased 30% on early November GRIs and have remained at about that level since then despite some attempted mid-month increases. Asia-Mediterranean prices did climb more than 10% in the last few days.
Levine said there are more reports of some rebound in demand, possibly from an early start to the pre-Lunar New Year rush.
Nonetheless, he noted that there is still a lot of scepticism that December GRIs aiming to push rates past US$6,000/FEU will stick even with recent increases in blanked sailings and an early LNY.
Air cargo peak yet to materialise
The Freightos analysis said some carriers have warned shippers on these lanes that prices will increase next year as new EU emissions regulations go into effect.
In air cargo, Levine said that despite anticipation that this year's peak season would be chaotic — as B2C e-commerce volumes have kept capacity tight and rates elevated throughout the year — ex-China prices have still not spiked, and carriers report being busy but not overwhelmed even as December approaches.
"Capacity additions to these lanes and shippers who adjusted and planned ahead may prove to be enough to prevent extreme rate climbs and congestion through the end of the year," Levine said.
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