Has rapid economic growth in the world’s high-income countries come to an end? If so, did the bursting of the bubble economy in 2007 mark the turning point? Alternatively, are we at the start of a new age of rapid growth fuelled by artificial intelligence? The answers to these questions are likely to do much to shape the future of our societies, since stagnant economies partly explain our bitter politics.

世界高收入国家的经济快速增长是否已经结束？如果是，那么2007年泡沫经济的破灭是否标志着转折点的到来？或者，我们是否正处于一个由人工智能推动的快速增长的新时代的开端？这些问题的答案很可能影响我们社会的未来，因为经济的停滞在一定程度上解释了我们政治的痛苦。

What then does the record look like and how far did it depend on unrepeatable opportunities? Here I will focus on the UK, as one of a number of countries struggling to recover dynamism. The UK has, in fact, been relatively undynamic since the second world war. Nevertheless, according to the Conference Board, UK real GDP per head rose 277 per cent between 1950 and 2023. Over the same period, US real GDP per head rose 299 per cent, French 375 per cent, German 501 per cent and Japanese 1,220 per cent. Cumulatively, standards of living have transformed.

那么，历史上是怎样的？它在多大程度上依赖不可复制的机会？在此，我将重点谈谈英国，它是正在努力恢复活力的众多国家之一。事实上，自二战以来，英国一直相对缺乏活力。然而，根据世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的数据，1950年至2023年间，英国人均实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长了277%。同期，美国人均实际GDP增长299%，法国增长375%，德国增长501%，日本增长1220%。累积起来，人们的生活水平发生了巨大变化。

Yet many people feel miserable. Part of the explanation for this is that growth rates have been falling. They were fastest between 1950 and 1973, the era of postwar recovery, lower between 1973 and 2007 and lower still between 2007 and 2023. Strikingly, this last period was the first in which US growth in both GDP per head and output per hour was higher than in France, Germany, Japan and the UK. Yet the level of US growth in output per hour was lower than it had been in the earlier periods.

然而，很多人却感到痛苦。部分原因在于增长率一直在下降。1950年至 1973年战后复苏时期的增长率最高，1973年至2007年的增长率较低，2007年至2023年的增长率更低。令人吃惊的是，2007年至2023年间，美国的人均GDP和每小时产出首次超过法国、德国、日本和英国。然而，美国每小时产出的增长率却低于前两个时期。

——本文2024年12月12日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Reckoning with an era of slow growth

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is under mounting pressure from his supporters to halt a new law that will toughen measures against women who defy orders to wear the hijab.

伊朗总统马苏德•佩泽什基安(Masoud Pezeshkian)正面临支持者越来越大的压力，要求他阻止一项将对违反佩戴头巾命令的女性采取更严厉措施的新法律。

The push to enforce the law is an attempt by the hardline parliament to challenge the reform-orientated administration of Pezeshkian, and a test of the Islamic republic’s ability to maintain a tight grip on social and cultural policies. 

推动执行这项法律是强硬派议会挑战佩泽什基安改革派政府的一次尝试，也是对伊斯兰共和国能否继续严格控制社会和文化政策的一次考验。

But former and current officials, activists and experts have been calling for the law, which was passed by MPs and the powerful Guardian Council in September, to be scrapped. The legislation will be formally sent to Pezeshkian on December 13, who will have five days to sign it, the last formal step for its enactment.

但前任和现任官员、活动人士和专家一直呼吁废除这项于9月由议员和强大的宪法监护委员会通过的法律。该法案将于12月13日正式发送给佩泽什基安，佩泽什基安将有五天的时间签署该法案，这是该法案颁布的最后一个正式步骤。

——本文2024年12月12日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 Iran’s president urged to scrap stricter hijab law

North Korea has slammed South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Pyongyang’s first official comments on the political crisis in the neighbouring democracy after Yoon’s failed attempt to impose martial law last week.

朝鲜抨击了韩国总统尹锡悦，这是平壤方面在尹锡悦上周试图实施戒严令失败后首次就其邻近的这个民主国家的政治危机发表官方评论。

“Puppet Yoon Suk Yeol, facing a serious crisis of governance and impeachment, has shocked the nation by suddenly declaring martial law and brazenly turning fascist dictatorial weapons against the citizens, throwing all of South Korea into chaos and pandemonium,” reported the Korean Central News Agency, the official mouthpiece of Kim Jong Un’s regime, according to a translation by NK News, a Seoul-based service.

“傀儡尹锡悦面临严重的治理危机和弹劾，突然宣布戒严，悍然将法西斯独裁武器对准公民，令整个南朝鲜陷入混乱和骚动，”据首尔的朝鲜新闻(NK News)翻译，金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政权的官方喉舌朝鲜中央通讯社(Korean Central News Agency, KCNA)如此报道。

Yoon is facing widespread calls for his impeachment after he declared martial law last Tuesday before being forced to rescind his declaration six hours later. He has already survived one vote to impeach him and is being investigated on treason charges.

尹锡悦上周二宣布戒严后，在六小时后被迫撤销了他的声明，目前弹劾他的呼声很高。针对尹锡悦的第一次弹劾动议案未获通过，尹锡悦正因叛国罪接受调查。

——本文2024年12月12日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 North Korea condemns ‘chaos’ over Yoon’s martial law bid in Seoul

US officials and lawmakers fear a resurgence of Isis in Syria in the wake of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, as they respond to the Middle East upheaval while grappling with their own political transition.

美国官员和立法者担心叙利亚境内的伊斯兰国(ISIS)在巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)政权垮台后死灰复燃。他们在应对自身政府换届的同时对中东的动荡做出回应。

The sudden end of Syria’s brutal decades-old dictatorship has been cheered across the political spectrum in Washington, but it has caught Joe Biden’s administration on the back foot as it prepares to make way for Donald Trump’s inauguration.

叙利亚持续数十年的残酷独裁统治突然结束，在华盛顿受到政坛各派别的欢迎，但这也让准备为唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)就职让路的乔•拜登(Joe Biden)政府措手不及。

From the White House to Capitol Hill and Trump’s resort in Mar-a-Lago there is anxiety that the security vacuum in Syria could be filled by Islamist terrorist groups that have been kept in check since coalition forces forced Isis out of the area five years ago.

从白宫、国会山，到特朗普在佛罗里达州的海湖庄园(Mar-a-Lago)度假胜地，各方都对一种可能性感到焦虑，那就是叙利亚的安全真空被伊斯兰主义恐怖组织乘虚而入。自五年前联军将伊斯兰国赶出该地区以来，伊斯兰主义恐怖组织迄今受到压制。

——本文2024年12月12日发布于FT中文网，英文原题为 ‘Race against time’: US struggles to respond to Syria turmoil during presidential transition