ING表示中国需求不振和库存高企压低铁矿石价格
Stuttering Chinese demand, elevated inventories depress ore: ING
ING表示，铁矿石是今年表现最差的工业金属，年初至今价格下跌20%，2025年铁矿石价格的下行风险可能会持续存在。
Downside risks to iron ore pricing are likely to prevail in 2025 after the raw material has been the worst-performing industrial metal this year, with prices down 20% year to date, says ING.
中国经济全面放缓，特别是房地产行业的危机，对铁矿石造成影响。该行业约占中国铁矿石需求的40%。迄今为止，大量的房地产支持措施未能对金属需求产生明显影响。
A broad economic slowdown in China and, in particular, the crisis in the property sector have weighed on iron ore. This sector accounts for about 40% of Chinese demand for iron ore. The plentiful property support measures have so far failed to meaningfully impact metals demand.
作为钢材需求的最大驱动力，中国的新屋开工率持续下降，今年迄今为止降幅已超过20%。 这将继续抑制2025年的钢材需求。ING指出，中国近期的经济刺激政策重点在于清理房地产库存，而非促进新屋开工。
China’s new home starts – the biggest steel demand driver – have continued to fall, now down more than 20% year-to-date. This should continue to suppress steel demand in 2025. The country's recent stimulus policies have focused on clearing property inventories rather than boosting new starts, ING points out.
与此同时，中国的钢材出口量也创下2016年以来的最高水平，今年迄今为止的出口量增长20%以上。不过，由于多个国家对中国钢铁发起贸易诉讼，这一增长速度可能会放缓，从而进一步阻碍铁矿石的需求。
China's steel exports have meanwhile hit their highest level since 2016, with volumes up more than 20% so far this year. This is likely to slow moving forward, however, as multiple countries have launched trade cases against Chinese steel, which could further hamper iron ore demand.
ING大宗商品策略师Ewa Manthey在发给Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）的一份简报中说：“我们认为，铁矿石仍然取决于中国的经济刺激政策。”
“We believe iron ore remains dependent on economic stimulus from China,” ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey says in a note sent to Kallanish.
“由于中国的经济复苏之路依然崎岖，市场对中国的政策仍将十分敏感，价格很可能继续波动。在市场看到中国经济可持续复苏和增长的迹象之前，我们认为铁矿石价格很难长期走高。”
“With the recovery path for China still bumpy, the market will remain sensitive to Chinese policies and prices are likely to remain volatile. Until the market sees signs of a sustainable recovery and economic growth in China, we think we'll struggle to see a long-term move higher for iron ore prices.”
今年上半年，四大铁矿石生产商（淡水河谷、力拓、必和必拓和Fortescue）的铁矿石总产量达到2.59亿吨，比2023年上半年增长1.4%。
Total iron ore production from the top four iron ore producers – Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue – reached 259 million tonnes in the first half of the year, up 1.4% from H1 2023.
中国港口的铁矿石保有量持续上升，已回到1.5亿吨以上，并创下历史同期最高水平。
Iron ore port holdings in China have continued to rise, back above 150mt and standing at their highest ever for this time of year.
Manthey指出：“我们预计2025年铁矿石价格仍将承压，原因是钢铁需求前景看跌、发货量持续强劲以及港口铁矿石库存高企。”
“We expect iron ore prices to remain under pressure in 2025 amid a combination of a bearish demand outlook for steel, ongoing strong shipments and elevated port inventories of iron ore,” Manthey notes.
她补充说：“我们认为，在1月底农历新年假期前的补货支撑下，第一季度的价格将走强，但考虑到中国现有库存已经很高，这种支撑可能有限。”
“We see stronger prices in the first quarter, supported by restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in late January – although the support might be limited given the already high existing inventories in China,” she adds.
此后，价格将呈下降趋势，2025年第四季度的平均价格为90美元/吨。ING认为2025年的平均价格为95美元/吨。
Prices will trend down thereafter to average $90/tonne in Q4 2025. ING sees a 2025 average of $95/t.
点击下方图片了解更多详情
Kallanish 网站
日报 周报 月报 会议
定制报告
广告虚位以待
欢迎咨询微信: Kallanish
