BMI预计2025年碳酸锂价格将上涨30%
Lithium carbonate prices to rise 30% in 2025: BMI
Fitch Solutions旗下公司BMI的分析师认为，中国碳酸锂预计是明年平均价格涨幅最大的大宗商品之一。
Chinese lithium carbonate is one of the commodities expected to see the biggest gains in average prices next year, according to analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company.
2025年，这种电池原材料的平均价格将上涨约30%，达到20,000美元/吨。BMI预测，今年中国碳酸锂的平均价格为15,500美元/吨，高于目前10,466美元/吨的水平，但低于2023年35,956美元/吨的平均价格。
The battery raw material could see an average price growth of around 30% in 2025 to $20,000/tonne. BMI forecasts China lithium carbonate price to average $15,500/t this year – which is higher than the current $10,466/t level, but lower than the $35,956/t average in 2023.
尽管锂的前景乐观，但分析师警告说，充足的供应、美元走强和消极情绪将在2025年给整体大宗商品价格带来压力。
Despite the optimistic outlook for lithium, analysts warn that abundant supply, a stronger US dollar and negative sentiment will pressure overall commodities prices in 2025.
分析师解释说：“虽然货币宽松周期将持续到2025年，而且绿色能源行业的需求具有韧性，但预计基本金属价格将受到美元可能突破性走高以及中国需求低迷的拖累。”
“While supported by the continuation of the monetary easing cycle into 2025 and resilient demand from the green energy sector, base metal prices are expected to be weighed down by the US dollar potentially breaking out higher along with subdued demand in China,” the analysts explain.
分析师表示：“在特朗普的政策转变中，能源转型可能会减速，这可能会在一定程度上抑制2024年推动价格上涨的‘绿色情绪’，尤其是铜价，铜价曾创下历史新高。”
“A potential deceleration in energy transition amid Trump’s policy shifts might dampen, to some extent, the ‘green sentiment’ that bolstered prices in 2024, most notably for copper, driving the metal to record highs,” they continue.
与大趋势不同，镍价将连续第三年下跌。Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）获悉，镍的表现不佳与市场供过于求有关。
Diverging from the broader trend, nickel is set for a decline for a third consecutive year. Its underperformance is tied to market oversupply, Kallanish notes.
BMI预计明年镍的平均价格为17,000美元/吨，而今年的预测平均价格为17,100美元/吨。目前的价格为15,780美元/吨。
BMI estimates nickel prices to average $17,000/t next year, compared to a forecast average of $17,100/t this year. Current prices, however, stand at $15,780/t.
同时，铜价将从2024年的约9,300美元/吨上涨到明年的10,000美元/吨。目前，这种红色金属的交易价格约为9,182美元/吨，高于2023年8,523美元/吨的平均价格。
Meanwhile, copper prices are set to rise to $10,000/t next year, from around $9,300/t in 2024. Currently, the red metal is trading at around $9,182/t, which is higher than the $8,523/t average in 2023.
点击下方图片了解更多详情
Kallanish 网站
日报 周报 月报 会议
定制报告
广告虚位以待
欢迎咨询微信: Kallanish
