Sam Altman于2024年9月23日在最新的博客文章《The Intelligence Age》中，详细阐述了他对未来AI发展的愿景和预期。以下文章摘要：
主要观点
技术进步与深度学习：Altman强调，AI的加速创新将成为推动未来变革的核心力量。他指出，深度学习技术的成功是AI进步的关键因素，并且这种技术在规模扩展过程中取得了可预测的进展。他认为，AI将帮助人类解决以往无法解决的问题，推动科学、技术和经济的持续发展。
个性化AI助理：Altman描绘了一个每个人都能拥有个性化AI助理的未来，这些虚拟助理不仅能够辅助日常工作，还能带来颠覆性的改变，从医疗保健到教育，再到软件开发的方方面面。他认为，这将使得伟大的想法和创意更容易落地，推动全球共同繁荣。
社会影响与挑战：Altman对未来持乐观态度，认为智能时代将带来空前的繁荣。他提到，AI有潜力解决重大挑战，如气候变化、太空探索和物理学难题。然而，他也警告说，如果无法创建足够的基础设施，AI可能成为有限的资源，并成为富人的工具。
超级智能的到来：Altman预测，超级智能（Superintelligence）可能在未来几千天内实现，这将彻底改变社会。他认为，AI的进步将使未来几代人能够完成前人认为不可能的事情。
评 价
积极方面
技术乐观主义：Altman对AI技术的未来持非常乐观的态度，认为它将带来巨大的社会和经济收益。
深度学习的认可：他对深度学习技术的认可和强调，反映了当前AI研究的主流趋势。
个性化应用：他对个性化AI助理的愿景，展示了AI在日常生活中广泛应用的潜力。
挑战与质疑
基础设施问题：Altman提到的基础设施挑战，特别是能源和芯片的需求，确实是实现他愿景的一个重大障碍。
社会不平等：如果AI资源分配不均，可能加剧社会不平等，这一点需要引起重视。
技术风险：尽管Altman对AI持乐观态度，但他也承认AI可能带来的负面影响和高风险，这需要社会和政策层面的应对措施。
总的来说，Sam Altman的《智能时代》为我们描绘了一个充满希望和挑战的未来。他的观点既激励人心，又提醒我们在追求技术进步的同时，必须谨慎应对潜在的社会和伦理问题。![]()
In the next couple of decades, we will be able to do things that would have seemed like magic to our grandparents.在接下来的几十年里，我们将能够做一些对我们的祖父母来说似乎很神奇的事情。This phenomenon is not new, but it will be newly accelerated. People have become dramatically more capable over time; we can already accomplish things now that our predecessors would have believed to be impossible.这种现象并不新鲜，但会以新的方式加速。随着时间的推移，人们的能力大大增强;我们现在已经可以完成我们的前辈认为不可能的事情。We are more capable not because of genetic change, but because we benefit from the infrastructure of society being way smarter and more capable than any one of us; in an important sense, society itself is a form of advanced intelligence. Our grandparents – and the generations that came before them – built and achieved great things. They contributed to the scaffolding of human progress that we all benefit from. AI will give people tools to solve hard problems and help us add new struts to that scaffolding that we couldn’t have figured out on our own. The story of progress will continue, and our children will be able to do things we can’t.我们更有能力不是因为基因变化，而是因为我们受益于社会的基础设施，它比我们任何人都更聪明、更有能力;从重要的意义上说，社会本身就是高级智能的一种形式。我们的祖父母 - 以及他们之前的几代人 - 建立并取得了伟大的成就。他们为人类进步的脚手架做出了贡献，我们都从中受益。AI 将为人们提供解决难题的工具，并帮助我们在脚手架上添加我们自己无法弄清楚的新支柱。进步的故事将继续，我们的孩子将能够做我们做不到的事情。It won’t happen all at once, but we’ll soon be able to work with AI that helps us accomplish much more than we ever could without AI; eventually we can each have a personal AI team, full of virtual experts in different areas, working together to create almost anything we can imagine. Our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, and at whatever pace they need. We can imagine similar ideas for better healthcare, the ability to create any kind of software someone can imagine, and much more.这不会一下子发生，但我们很快就能使用 AI，它可以帮助我们完成比没有 AI 时更多的工作;最终，我们每个人都可以拥有一个个人 AI 团队，由不同领域的虚拟专家组成，共同创造我们能想象到的几乎任何东西。我们的孩子将拥有虚拟导师，他们可以以任何学科、任何语言和他们需要的任何速度提供个性化教学。我们可以想象类似的想法，以改善医疗保健，创建人们可以想象的任何类型的软件的能力，等等。With these new abilities, we can have shared prosperity to a degree that seems unimaginable today; in the future, everyone’s lives can be better than anyone’s life is now. Prosperity alone doesn’t necessarily make people happy – there are plenty of miserable rich people – but it would meaningfully improve the lives of people around the world.凭借这些新的能力，我们可以在今天看来无法想象的程度上共享繁荣;在未来，每个人的生活都可能比任何人现在的生活更好。繁荣本身不一定能让人们快乐——有很多悲惨的富人——但它会有意义地改善世界各地人们的生活。Here is one narrow way to look at human history: after thousands of years of compounding scientific discovery and technological progress, we have figured out how to melt sand, add some impurities, arrange it with astonishing precision at extraordinarily tiny scale into computer chips, run energy through it, and end up with systems capable of creating increasingly capable artificial intelligence.这是看待人类历史的一种狭隘方式：经过数千年的科学发现和技术进步，我们已经弄清楚了如何融化沙子，添加一些杂质，以惊人的精度将其以极其微小的规模排列到计算机芯片中，通过它运行能量，最终得到能够创造出越来越强大的人工智能的系统。This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.这可能是迄今为止所有历史中最重要的事实。我们有可能在几千天内拥有超级智能 （!);这可能需要更长的时间，但我有信心我们会到达那里。How did we get to the doorstep of the next leap in prosperity?In three words: deep learning worked.In 15 words: deep learning worked, got predictably better with scale, and we dedicated increasing resources to it.用 15 个词来说：深度学习奏效了，可以预见的是，随着规模的扩大，深度学习变得更好，我们为此投入了越来越多的资源。That’s really it; humanity discovered an algorithm that could really, truly learn any distribution of data (or really, the underlying “rules” that produce any distribution of data). To a shocking degree of precision, the more compute and data available, the better it gets at helping people solve hard problems. I find that no matter how much time I spend thinking about this, I can never really internalize how consequential it is.就是这样;人类发现了一种算法，它可以真正、真正地学习任何数据分布（或者说，产生任何数据分布的底层“规则”）。精确度令人震惊，可用的计算和数据越多，它就越能更好地帮助人们解决难题。我发现，无论我花多少时间思考这个问题，我都无法真正内化它的重要性。There are a lot of details we still have to figure out, but it’s a mistake to get distracted by any particular challenge. Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale, and that will lead to meaningful improvements to the lives of people around the world.我们还有很多细节需要弄清楚，但被任何特定的挑战分散注意力都是错误的。深度学习有效，我们将解决剩余的问题。关于接下来会发生什么，我们可以说很多事情，但最主要的是，AI 将随着规模的扩大而变得更好，这将为世界各地人们的生活带来有意义的改善。AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf. At some point further down the road, AI systems are going to get so good that they help us make better next-generation systems and make scientific progress across the board.AI 模型很快将充当自主的个人助理，代表我们执行特定任务，例如代表您协调医疗保健。在未来的某个时候，AI 系统将变得如此出色，以至于它们可以帮助我们制造更好的下一代系统并全面取得科学进步。Technology brought us from the Stone Age to the Agricultural Age and then to the Industrial Age. From here, the path to the Intelligence Age is paved with compute, energy, and human will.技术将我们从石器时代带到了农业时代，然后是工业时代。从这里开始，通往智能时代的道路由计算、能源和人类意志铺就。If we want to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant (which requires lots of energy and chips). If we don’t build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that wars get fought over and that becomes mostly a tool for rich people.如果我们想将 AI 交到尽可能多的人手中，我们需要降低计算成本并使其丰富（这需要大量的能源和芯片）。如果我们不建立足够的基础设施，人工智能将是一种非常有限的资源，战争会争夺它，它主要成为富人的工具。We need to act wisely but with conviction. The dawn of the Intelligence Age is a momentous development with very complex and extremely high-stakes challenges. It will not be an entirely positive story, but the upside is so tremendous that we owe it to ourselves, and the future, to figure out how to navigate the risks in front of us.我们需要明智但坚定地行动。智能时代的到来是一个重大的发展，其中充满了非常复杂和极其高风险的挑战。这不会是一个完全积极的故事，但好处是如此巨大，以至于我们应该为自己和未来弄清楚如何驾驭我们面前的风险。I believe the future is going to be so bright that no one can do it justice by trying to write about it now; a defining characteristic of the Intelligence Age will be massive prosperity.我相信未来会如此光明，以至于没有人能通过现在就试图写下它来公正地对待它;智能时代的一个决定性特征将是巨大的繁荣。Although it will happen incrementally, astounding triumphs – fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, and the discovery of all of physics – will eventually become commonplace. With nearly-limitless intelligence and abundant energy – the ability to generate great ideas, and the ability to make them happen – we can do quite a lot.尽管这将逐步发生，但令人震惊的胜利——修复气候、建立太空殖民地和发现所有物理学——最终将变得司空见惯。凭借近乎无限的智慧和丰富的能量——产生伟大想法的能力，以及实现它们的能力——我们可以做很多事情。As we have seen with other technologies, there will also be downsides, and we need to start working now to maximize AI’s benefits while minimizing its harms. As one example, we expect that this technology can cause a significant change in labor markets (good and bad) in the coming years, but most jobs will change more slowly than most people think, and I have no fear that we’ll run out of things to do (even if they don’t look like “real jobs” to us today). People have an innate desire to create and to be useful to each other, and AI will allow us to amplify our own abilities like never before. As a society, we will be back in an expanding world, and we can again focus on playing positive-sum games.正如我们在其他技术中所看到的那样，也会有缺点，我们现在需要开始努力，以最大限度地发挥 AI 的优势，同时最大限度地减少其危害。举个例子，我们预计这项技术可以在未来几年内导致劳动力市场发生重大变化（好的和坏的），但大多数工作的变化速度会比大多数人想象的要慢，我不担心我们会无事可做（即使它们今天对我们来说看起来不像“真正的工作”）。人们天生就有创造和相互有用的愿望，而人工智能将使我们能够以前所未有的方式放大自己的能力。作为一个社会，我们将回到一个不断扩大的世界，我们可以再次专注于玩正和游戏。Many of the jobs we do today would have looked like trifling wastes of time to people a few hundred years ago, but nobody is looking back at the past, wishing they were a lamplighter. If a lamplighter could see the world today, he would think the prosperity all around him was unimaginable. And if we could fast-forward a hundred years from today, the prosperity all around us would feel just as unimaginable.我们今天所做的许多工作在几百年前的人们看来都是微不足道的浪费时间，但没有人回顾过去，希望他们是一个点灯人。如果一个点灯的人能看到今天的世界，他会认为他周围的繁荣是难以想象的。如果我们能从今天快进一百年，我们周围的繁荣将同样难以想象。![]()
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