财迷精选‖《外交事务》杂志最新文章:为何美刀仍站在世界之巅(中英对照)

财富 2024-08-21 18:01 中国香港

财迷按：美刀为神马牛逼？只有对上述问题的答案了解得足够深刻，我们才会明白为何我等草民也需要在个人资产中适当配置部分美刀。

财迷就此写过很多文章来进行解毒，主要谈的是美刀的锚是米国经过几百年所建立起来的信用和米帝的工业实力。

不过，近日，财迷在阅读最新一期的《外交事务》杂志(Foreign Affairs)的时候，发现一篇文章：《顶级美刀：为何米国货币的统治地位比以往更难被推翻》，给了一个新的视角：不是美刀有多牛，都是同行衬托得好。同时，此文还提到米国一招先，招招先——各国抛售美刀等于是对米国进行巨大的财政补贴。

此文视角令人耳目一新，相关数据也非常翔实。财迷不敢藏私，特转发此文，与大家共享。

另外，《外交事务》(Foreign Affairs)创办于1922年，由米国对外关系委员会(Council on Foreign relations)出版。该杂志被认为是全球最有影响力的外交政策杂志之一，也是全球相关领域的学者都梦想着在上面发表文章的顶级期刊之一。

在其悠久的历史中，《外交事务》发表了许多具有开创性的文章，包括乔治·凯南(George Kennan) 1947年发表的《X文章》(X Article)，以及塞缪尔·P·亨廷顿(Samuel P. Huntington) 1993年发表的《文明的冲突》(The Clash of Civilizations)。

重要学者、政府官员和政策领导人经常出现在该杂志的页面上。最近的《外交事务》文章作者包括前国务卿希拉里·克林顿、前国防部长唐纳德·H·拉姆斯菲尔德、著名学者弗朗西斯·福山、兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基和约瑟夫·奈。

综上，此文值得一读。因为我们需要了解米帝政治精英如何看待美刀霸权——在必要的时候，我们或许需要像米帝政治精英那样思考。

财迷周末另有长文，敬请期待。

以下为精选文正文（出于某些原因，财迷有编辑改动）：

Top Dollar：Why the Dominance of America's Currency Is Harder Than Ever to Overturn

顶级美刀：为何米国货币的统治地位比以往更难被推翻

ESWAR PRASAD

埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德

ESWAR PRASAD is Senior Professor of Trade Policy in the Dyson School at Cornell University, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and the author of The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance.

埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德是康乃尔大学戴森学院贸易政策高级教授、布鲁金斯学会高级研究员，也是《货币的未来：数字革命如何改变货币和金融》一书的作者。

The U.S. dollar is the most easily recognized, widely accepted, and ardently desired currency in the world. It is also much reviled for the power it gives the United States over inter-national affairs. Washington wields the dollar as a weapon against its rivals by imposing sanctions and freezing assets. Even U.S. allies chafe at their dependence on the dollar, which exposes their economies and financial systems to the vagaries of U.S. policies. The country's rivals and allies alike thus want to end the dollar's dominance. They are eager to promote alternatives, including their own currencies. And the United States is doing all it can to help them.

美刀是世界上最容易被识别、广泛接受和热切追求的货币之一。然而，它也因赋予米国在国际事务中的权力而倍受诟病。华盛顿利用美刀作为武器，对其竞争对手实施制裁并冻结资产。即使是米国的盟友也对依赖美刀感到不满，因为这暴露了他们的经济和金融体系受米国政策的影响。因此，各国的竞争对手和盟友都希望终结美刀的霸主地位，积极推动包括自己货币在内的替代方案。而米国则竭尽所能地帮助他们。

The U.S. economy is no longer the colossus it once was. Its public debt is gargantuan and rising, and policymaking in Washington is erratic and unpredictable. Persistent threats of debt defaults undercut the perception that U.S. government bonds are safe. Worse still, the bedrock elements of the dollar's strength-the rule of law, an independent Federal Reserve, a system of checks and balances-have been undermined in recent years by populist politicians who have chipped away at the country's democratic institutions. It would be no surprise, then, if the dollar were rapidly losing its power.

米国经济不再是曾经的巨人。米国的公共债务庞大且不断增长，华盛顿的政策制定变幻莫测。持续的债务违约威胁削弱了米国政府债券安全的认知。更糟糕的是，美刀的基本支柱——法治、独立的联邦储备系统和权力制衡体系——近年来受到民粹主义政治家的破坏，这些政治家削弱了米国的民主机构。如果美刀迅速失去了其力量，那其实不足为奇。

Butin fact the opposite is happening: the trends that would be expected to weaken the dollar, many of them driven by U.S. policy, are only strengthening its global dominance. The dollar remains on top in part because of the U.S. economy's size and dynamism relative to other major economies. But more than that, although American institutions are fraying, those in other parts of the world are in no better shape, with populism and authoritarianism on the rise. Moreover, economic and geopolitical turmoil serves only to intensify the quest for safe investments, usually leading investors back to the dollar, which remains the most trusted currency. The United States’ financial markets are much larger than those of other countries, making dollar assets easier and cheaper to buy and sell.

但事实上，相反的情况正在发生：许多本应削弱美刀的趋势，其中许多是由米国政策推动的，反而加强了其全球霸主地位。美刀之所以保持领先，部分原因在于米国经济相对于其他主要经济体的规模和活力。但更重要的是，尽管米国的制度正在瓦解，但世界其他地区的制度也不比米国好，民粹主义和威权主义正在兴起。此外，经济和地缘政治的动荡只会加剧对安全投资的追求，通常会将投资者引回美刀，因为它仍然是最值得信赖的货币。米国的金融市场远远大于其他国家，使得美刀资产更容易、更便宜地买卖。

The dollar is not fully immune to shifts in global economic and geopolitical power. But even as the dollar has lost some ground, the gap between it and any putative rival has only grown and shows no signs of stopping. China and India have become major economic powers, but their currencies have not picked up steam outside their countries. Although the global hierarchy of international currencies is shifting, many of these changes are improving the dollar's relative standing by hurting its rivals even more. Turbulence in the world economy or global affairs—even if triggered or exacerbated by the United States' own policy blunders-only enhances the dol-lar's strength vis-à-vis alternative currencies. Almost nothing could change this any time soon.

虽然美刀并非完全免疫于全球经济和地缘政治力量的变化，但即使美刀失去了一些地位，它与任何潜在竞争对手之间的差距只会增大，且没有停止的迹象。神州和印度已成为重要的经济大国，但其货币在其国家之外并未受到青睐。尽管国际货币的全球层次正在发生变化，但其中许多变化通过更严重地伤害其竞争对手，反而改善了美刀的相对地位。世界经济或全球事务的动荡——即使是由米国自身政策失误引发或加剧——只会增强美刀相对于其他替代货币的实力。几乎没有什么能够在短期内改变这一现状。

WORTH THE RISK

值得冒险

Since the end of World War II, the dollar has been the leading international currency in every respect-as a unit of account, a medium of exchange, and a store of value. Even by conservative estimates, at least half of all international trade is denominated in dollars, far more than in any other currency and much greater than the U.S. share of world trade, which is roughly 11 percent. It is the main invoicing currency and the top payment currency, roughly half of all international payments are settled in dollars. When a Chinese company imports iron ore from Brazil or a Brazilian firms purchases semiconductors from China, those transactions are almost always invoiced and paid for in dollars rather than in Brazilian reais or Chinese renminbi.

自二战结束以来，美刀一直是国际货币的领头羊，无论是作为记账单位、交换媒介还是价值储存工具。即使按保守估计，至少一半的国际贸易以美刀计价，远远超过其他任何货币，也远远超过米国在世界贸易中的份额，大约为11%。美刀是主要的开票货币和首选支付货币，大约一半的国际支付都以美刀结算。当神州公司从巴西进口铁矿石，或者巴西公司购买神州的半导体时，这些交易几乎总是以美刀开票并支付，而不是以巴西雷亚尔或神州人仔支付。

The dollar is also the principal global reserve currency, 59 per-cent of foreign exchange reserves in the world's central banks are held in dollar-denominated assets, or assets whose face value and prices are all stated in dollars. There's a reason the share is so large Foreign exchange reserves act as a central bank's rainy-day funds. They can be used to pay for imports or prop up the domestic currency when its value falls. Central banks in emerging-market countries have learned that large stocks of foreign exchange reserves help insulate their economies from volatile capital flows, and they try to keep reserves in assets that are safe and liquid. As a result, they buy dollar-denominated assets, which are available in large quantities and are always in demand and can therefore be bought and sold with minimal transaction costs.

美刀还是主要的全球储备货币，全球中央银行的外汇储备中有59%是以美刀计价的资产，或者是面值和价格都以美刀表示的资产。这一份额之所以如此之大，是因为外汇储备充当了中央银行的“雨天基金”。它们可以用于支付进口或在本币贬值时支持国内货币。新兴市场国家的中央银行已经认识到，大量的外汇储备有助于保护其经济免受波动的资本流动影响，因此他们试图将储备保持在安全和流动性高的资产中。因此，他们购买以美刀计价的资产，这些资产数量庞大，始终供不应求，因此可以以最小的交易成本进行买卖。

And the greenback remains a key funding currency in global debt markets. When firms or governments in developing countries try to raise money in those markets, they are routinely forced to borrow in foreign currencies. This is usually because foreign investors lack confidence in the value of those countries' domestic currencies and prefer to be repaid in dollars. Even some European companies and banks prefer to raise capital in dollars because the profusion of dollars makes that cheaper and easier. Two-thirds of securities issued by corporations outside their home countries are denominated in dollars.

美刀仍然是全球债务市场的主要融资货币。当发展中国家的公司或政府试图在这些市场筹集资金时，他们通常被迫借入外币。这通常是因为外国投资者对这些国家的本国货币价值缺乏信心，更愿意以美刀偿还。甚至一些欧洲公司和银行也更喜欢以美刀筹集资金，因为大量的美刀使得筹集资金变得更便宜、更容易。三分之二的公司在本国以外发行的证券以美刀计价。

These preferences reinforce one another. Foreign central banks demand for U.S. Treasury securities helps finance U.S. government borrowing, keeping U.S. interest rates relatively low. This in turn incentivizes foreign governments, corporations, and financial institutions to borrow in dollars. The wide-spread use of dollars in international trade encourages both developing and developed countries to hold reserves in dollars. Duringthe 2008 global financial crisis, even the Bank of England and the European Central Bank borrowed dollars from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

这些偏好相互强化。外国央行对米国国债的需求有助于为米国政府借款提供资金，从而使米国利率保持在相对较低的水平。这反过来又刺激外国政府、企业和金融机构借入美刀。美刀在国际贸易中的广泛使用鼓励发展神州家和已开发国家持有美刀储备。2008年全球金融危机期间，连英国央行和欧洲央行也向联准会借入美刀。

But since that crisis, dollars have become an increasingly risky asset. The United States remains a dynamic and resilient economy yet gross federal public debt is likely to exceed $35 trillion—roughly125 percent of annual GDP— by the end of 2024, and Congress shows little inclination to curb spending or raise taxes. No one expects the U.S. government to walk away from its debt obligations. Still, the threat of even short-lived defaults, on top of the sheer and rising magnitude of debt, has caused rating agencies such as S&P and Fitch to downgrade U.S. government bonds.

但自那场(次贷)危机以来，美刀已成为风险越来越大的资产。米国仍然是一个充满活力和弹性的经济体，但到2024 年底，联邦公共债务总额可能会超过35 兆美刀，约占年度GDP 的125%，而且国会几乎没有表现出抑制支出或提高税收的倾向。没有人预期米国政府会放弃其债务义务。尽管如此，除了债务规模庞大且不断上升之外，即使是短期违约的威胁也已导致标准普尔和惠誉等评级机构下调米国政府债券的评级。

The dollar is hostage to politics in more ways than one. During former U.S. President Donald Trump's term in office, the rule of law and the Federal Reserve's independence-bulwarks of foreign investors’ belief in the stable long-term value of the dollar-took a beating. The U.S. system of checks and balances proved far too fragile and dependent on unwritten norms to maintain these investors confidence, prompting them to reevaluate their trust in the dollar and look for alternatives.

美刀在多种方面受制于政治。在米国前总统唐纳德·川普任职期间，法治和美联储的独立性（外国投资者对美刀稳定的长期价值的信念的堡垒）受到了打击。事实证明，米国的制衡体系过于脆弱，并且依赖不成文的规范来维持这些投资者的信心，促使他们重新评估对美刀的信任并寻找替代方案。

Washington has further jeopardized the dollar's status by barring Iran, North Korea, and Russia from trading in dollars and thereby from accessing the international financial system. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022,the United States even froze Mos-cow's foreign exchange reserves held in dollars. Whether or not this move was justified by Russia's gross violation of international law, it undoubtedly left other central banks wondering whether their own dollar-denominated rainy-day funds would be locked up should their governments run afoul of Washington.

华盛顿禁止伊朗、北朝鲜和俄罗斯进行美刀交易，从而进入国际金融体系，这进一步损害了美刀的地位。2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，米国甚至冻结了莫斯科的美刀外汇存底。无论俄罗斯此举是否因严重违反国际法而合理，这无疑让其他央行怀疑，如果它们的政府与华盛顿发生冲突，它们自己的以美刀计价的应急基金是否会被锁定。

FALSE PROPHETS

假先知

But predictions of the dollar's demise have greatly exaggerated the currency's weakness-a fact made clear by its remarkable endurance. Analysts have warned for years that the dollar will lose out to other currencies, and yet none of them has displaced it, Consider the euro, whose inauguration in 1999 seemed to herald the end of the dollar's unrivaled power. The euro zone was, after all, an economic area that stood toe to toe with the United States in terms of economic and financial market size. It had an independent central bank, and its members generally followed the rule of law.

然鹅，预言美刀的衰落大大夸大了其弱点，这一事实通过美刀卓越的持久性变得日益清晰。多年来，分析师一直警告美刀将败给其他货币，但没有一种货币能够取代它。考虑一下欧元，它于1999年诞生，似乎预示着美刀无与伦比的霸权地位即将终结。欧元区毕竟是一个在经济和金融市场规模上与米国不相上下的经济区域。它拥有独立的中央银行，其成员普遍遵循法治原则。

At first, the euro did bite into the dollar's shares as a payment and reserve currency, By 2009, the euro's share of global foreign exchange reserves had risen to 28 percent, up from 18 percent in 2000, and the dollar's share fell by a corresponding amount. But by the end of that year the euro's progress had stalled. European governments lacked the political will to transform their monetary union into a broader economic and financial union, which would have required them to cede more power to eurozone institutions and exercise greater discipline in their own policies. The 2009 eurozone debt crisis laid bare the economic and political weaknesses of the monetary union. The euro's share of global foreign exchange reserves eroded and ha snow fallen below 20 percent.

起初，欧元确实在支付和储备货币方面侵蚀了美刀的份额。到2009年，欧元在全球外汇储备中的份额已从2000年的18%上升至28%，而美刀的份额相应下降。但到那一年底，欧元的进展停滞不前。欧洲政府缺乏将其货币联盟转变为更广泛的经济和金融联盟的政治意愿，这将要求它们将更多权力让渡给欧元区机构，并在自己的政策上行使更严格的纪律。2009年的欧元区债务危机暴露了货币联盟的经济和政治弱点。欧元在全球外汇储备中的份额减少，现已降至不到20%。

The Chinese renminbi has followed a similar trajectory. In2010, Beijing began to actively promote the “internationalization” of its currency, With China's rising clout in the world economy, this campaign quickly took of, By 2015, about three percent of global payment transactions were being conducted in renminbi up from essentially zero just five years carlier. Chinese firms issued renminbi-denominated debt in Hong Kong and other financial markets, establishing it as a major currency on track to one day challenge the dollar.

自2010年起，神州人仔（RMB）走上了类似的发展轨迹。北平开始积极推动其货币的“国际化”。随着神州在世界经济中的影响力不断增强，这一运动迅速展开。到2015年，全球约三分之一的支付交易已经使用人仔进行，而此前几乎为零。神州企业在香港和其他金融市场发行了以人仔计价的债券，使其成为一种重要的货币，有望在未来挑战美刀。

Then the renminbi, too, stalled. China's economy and stock market hit a rough patch in 2014 and 2015. Capital fight surged, and the currency lost value. Beijing responded by making it harder to take capital out of the country, spooking foreign investors. Since that period, the use of the renminbi in global trade transactions has increased slightly, but only for trade in which China is directly involved. The share of global foreign exchange reserves held in renminbi has stagnated, staying under three percent. And as China's economy stumbles, with China’s government, tightening his control and avoiding significant economic reforms, it is unlikely that foreign central banks and investors will trust renminbi-denominated assets.

然而，人仔也陷入了停滞。2014年和2015年，神州经济和股市遇到了困境。资本外流激增，人仔贬值。北平采取措施限制资本流出，使外国投资者感到不安。自那时以来，人仔在全球贸易交易中的使用略有增加，但仅限于神州直接参与的贸易。全球外汇储备中以人仔计价的份额停滞不前，仍然低于3%。随着神州经济的踌躇不前，神州政府加强控制，避免进行重大经济改革，外国中央银行和投资者不太可能信任以人仔计价的资产。

Other countries have not even come close to challenging the dollar's status. Economic and geopolitical forces have in recent years boosted some smaller reserve currencies, such as the Australian dollar. the Swedish kroner, and the Indian rupee, as has been observed by the economist Barry Eichen green, But these currencies are still bit players in global finance, and their gains have come mainly at the expense of traditional reserve currencies such as the euro, the British pound sterling, and the Japanese yen. The dollar remains firmly on its pedestal, well above the fray.

近年来，经济和地缘政治力量推动了一些较小的储备货币，例如澳元、瑞典克朗和印度卢比，但这些货币在全球金融中仍然只是次要角色。它们的增长主要是以传统储备货币（如欧元、英镑和日元）为代价的。美刀仍然稳居其地位，高高在上。

NEW MONEY

新钱

Some politicians and analysts have suggested that countries should look beyond fat currencies and toward gold and even crypto currencies such as Bitcoin, which they claim can serve as alternative “safe assets." Both gold and cryptocurrencies are in scarce supply and there-fore should hold value better than traditional currencies, which can be produced in infinite quantities, But scarcity alone does not ensure durable value. Although some central banks have been accumulating gold, its volatile value and the difficulty of converting large amounts of it into usable currency have rendered it largely unviable as a safe asset, And no central bank wants to take risks on cryptocurrencies. which remain entirely speculative.

一些政治家和分析师建议各国不应仅仅关注传统货币，而应将目光投向黄金，甚至是像比特币这样的加密货币，他们声称这些货币可以作为替代的“安全资产”。黄金和加密货币都供应稀缺，因此应该比传统货币更有价值，后者可以无限制地生产。然而，仅仅稀缺并不能确保持久的价值。尽管一些中央银行一直在积累黄金，但其波动的价值以及将大量黄金转换为可用货币的难度使其在作为安全资产方面基本不可行。此外，没有哪家中央银行愿意冒险涉足加密货币，因为它们仍然完全是投机性的。

Perhaps technology will do what governments cannot: undercut the dollar, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have emerged as a libertarian alternative to official currencies issued and managed by central banks, Some governments are embracing digital currencies, as well. China, India, and Japan are already testing digital versions of their official currencies, and a digital euro is in the offing.

也许技术能够做到政府所不能：削弱美刀。比特币和其他加密货币已成为中央银行发行和管理的官方货币的自由主义替代品。一些国家政府也在接纳数字货币。神州、印度和日本已经在测试其官方货币的数字版本，而数字欧元也在酝酿之中。

But with its highly volatile value, high transaction fees, and limited capacity for handling large volumes of transactions, Bitcoin has proved to be terrible for payments. New cryptocurrencies such as stablecoins, which get their stable value from backing by fiat currency reserves, are becoming more popular in both domestic ana cross-border payments. But stablecoins backed by dollars are the only ones getting any real traction. ironically, they are only making the dollar more prominent as a payment currency.

比特币的价值极度波动，交易费用高，且处理大量交易的能力有限，因此在支付方面表现糟糕。新型加密货币，如稳定币，其稳定价值来自法定货币储备的支持，正在在国内和跨境支付中变得越来越流行。但以美刀为支持的稳定币是唯一真正受到关注的。讽刺的是，它们只是让美刀作为支付货币更加突出。

Fears that the introduction of digital renminbi could turbo charge the Chinese currency's rise are unfounded, Most international payments are already digital, and the Chinese government has shown no indication of allowing its currency, in any form, to be freely available for use outside its national borders, since doing so would make it harder to control the renminbi's value in foreign exchange markets. If Beijing did relax such controls, it would need to implement major political reforms-namely, instituting the rule of law and a system of checks and balances among different arms of government-before foreign investors began widely using its currency and investing in it. But such changes are unlikely.

关于数字人仔可能加速神州货币崛起的担忧是没有根据的。大多数国际支付已经是数字化的，神州政府也没有显示出允许其货币以任何形式自由在国境之外使用的迹象，因为这将使其更难以控制人仔在外汇市场上的价值。如果北平放宽了这些控制，它需要实施重大的政治改革，即建立法治和不同政府部门之间的权力制衡体系，然后外国投资者才会广泛使用其货币并进行投资。但这样的变化是不太可能的。

STAYING POWER

维持力量

Dollar doomsayers still believe the currency is on the brink of decline. They point to the cautionary tale of how quickly the dollar replaced the pound sterling as the dominant reserve currency after World War Il. But that situation is not comparable to today's. The United States has no serious rival that can match the combination of its economic and financial market size .Its institutions have deteriorated. but those of other major economies are in even worse shape.

美刀的末日预言者仍然认为这种货币处于衰退的边缘。他们讲了一个警示性的故事，即在二战后，美刀迅速取代英镑成为主要的储备货币。但是，那个时期与今天的情况不可相提并论。米国没有严重的竞争对手能够匹配其经济和金融市场规模的组合。尽管米国的制度已经恶化，但其他主要经济体的制度状况更糟糕。

Other quirks also make drastic changes unlikely. The turmoil unleashed by the global financial crisis led central banks and investors around the world to seek safety in the dollar, further strengthening its position, Foreign investors hold more financial assets in the United States than American investors hold abroad, meaning the United States is a net debtor to the rest of the world. U.S. liabilities to the rest of the world are denominated in dollars, with many foreign investors willing to accept low returns in exchange for the safety of the dollar, American investors, by contrast, have been willing to bet on foreign assets that are mostly denominated in foreign currencies because those assets yield higher returns even if they are riskier, If the world turned away from the dollar and sent its value plummeting relative to other currencies, U.S. assets abroad would be worth more in dollars, since each unit of foreign currency would also be worth more dollars. Conversely, foreigners would take a beating on the value of their dollar-denominated assets when converted back to their home currencies. In other words, a plunge in the value of the dollar would result in a huge financial gift from the rest of the world to the United States.

其他因素也使剧变变得不太可能。全球金融危机引发的动荡导致世界各国的中央银行和投资者寻求以美刀为安全避风港，进一步加强了其地位。外国投资者在米国持有的金融资产比米国投资者在国外持有的资产更多，这意味着米国对世界其他国家是净债务国。米国对世界其他国家的债务以美刀计价，许多外国投资者愿意接受低回报以换取美刀的安全性。相比之下，米国投资者愿意押注主要以外国货币计价的外国资产，因为这些资产即使风险更大，回报也更高。如果世界摒弃美刀并使其相对于其他货币暴跌，米国在海外的资产将以更多美刀计价，因为每单位外币也将以更多美刀计价。相反，外国人将在将其以美刀计价的资产转换回本国货币时遭受损失。换句话说，美刀价值的暴跌将导致世界其他国家向米国提供巨大的财政礼物。

In light of this scary scenario, countries around the world should surely have reduced their exposure to the “dollar trap." But they have done just the opposite. From 2014 to the beginning of 2024, U.S. foreign liabilities grew from $30 trillion to more than $51 trillion, while U.S. assets grew from $24 trillion to just $33 trillion. In other words, the United States was a net debtor to the rest of the world to the tune of $6 trillion in 2014-and that amount has tripled over the last decade. The United States now has the rest of the world in an even tighter chokehold.

根据这个可怕的情景，世界各国应该减少对“美刀陷阱”的敞口。但事实恰恰相反。从2014年到2024年初，米国的外国债务从30万亿美刀增加到超过51万亿美刀，而米国的资产从24万亿美刀增加到仅为33万亿美刀。换句话说，米国在2014年对世界其他国家的净债务达到了6万亿美刀，而这一数字在过去十年中翻了三倍。米国现在对世界其他国家的控制更加紧密。

Another example of how the dollar is waxing, not waning, comes from the determination of the value of Special Drawing Rights, an artificial currency created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)in 1969 that serves as a supplemental reserve for member countries. From 1999 to 2015, the value of the SDR was tied to that of four major currencies: the dollar, the euro, the British pound sterling, and the Japanese yen, with each currency having a particular weight in determining that value. The weights of the currencies in the SDR “basket “are based on a formula that takes account of a country's GDP, its share of world trade, and the share of global foreign exchange reserves held in that currency, The weights sum to 100.

另一个说明美刀正在增强而非衰退的例子来自特别提款权（SDR）的价值确定。SDR是由国际货币基金组织（IMF）于1969年创造的一种人工货币，用作成员国的补充储备。从1999年到2015年,SDR的价值与四种主要货币挂钩：美刀、欧元、英镑和日元，每种货币在确定价值时都有特定的权重。SDR“篮子”中各种货币的权重基于一个公式，考虑了国家的国内生产总值（GDP）、世界贸易份额以及全球外汇储备中持有的该货币份额，权重总和为100。

In a bow to China's rising economic power, the IMF added the Chinese renminbi to the SDR basket in 2016. Based on the formula. The renminbi was assigned a weight of 10.9 percent in the basket, a share that would have to come from the shares of the other currencies. But virtually all of it came from the euro, the pound, and the yen; the dollar's share was barely affected. The euro was the biggest loser, with its share in the basket shrinking from 37 percent to 31 percent.

根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的决定，自2016年10月1日起，人仔被确定为可自由使用的货币，并作为第五种货币加入了特别提款权（SDR）篮子，与美刀、欧元、日元和英镑一同构成了SDR篮子。根据公式，人仔在篮子中的权重为10.9%，这一份额需要从其他货币的份额中获得。但实际上，几乎所有的份额都来自欧元、英镑和日元；美刀的份额几乎没有受到影响。欧元是最大的输家，其在篮子中的份额从37%缩减到31%。

The IMF adjusts the weights every five years to reflect changes in the variables that go into the formula. The latest revision, which took effect in 2022, bumped up the weight of the renminbi to 12.3 percent as the Chinese economy continued its progress, despite the hit from the covip-19 pandemic. But once again, the dollar did not suffer, In fact, its weight increased by nearly two percentage points to 43 percent. Again, the other three currencies lost ground, with the euro's share shrinking to 29 percent.

IMF每五年调整一次权重，以反映公式中的变量变化。最新的修订于2022年生效，将人仔的权重提高到12.3%，尽管受到了COVID-19大流行的影响，神州经济仍在持续发展。但同样，美刀并未受到损害，实际上，其权重增加了近两个百分点，达到43%。其他三种货币再次失去了份额，欧元的份额缩减至29%。

SAFETY AMID CHAOS

乱中之治

Economic and geopolitical factors are still intensifying central banks desires to diversify their foreign exchange reserves. But the reality is that the dollar remains too powerful and too ingrained in the global economy for states to consider switching to other currencies. because their status as payment and reserve currencies has eroded And the United States boasts an economy that remains larger and more dynamic than that of almost every other country, Even if China were to someday rival the economic might of the united States, it does not have the strong institutional framework needed to compete with Washington.

尽管经济和地缘政治因素仍在加剧中央银行多样化其外汇储备的愿望，但现实情况是，美刀在全球经济中的地位过于强大且根深蒂固，使各国不太可能考虑切换到其他货币。即使神州有朝一日能够与米国的经济实力相匹敌，它也没有与华盛顿竞争所需的强大制度框架。

Washington could overplay its hand, damaging the dollar's standing. There might be a tipping point at which markets decide that the level and trajectory of U.S. public debt are unsustainable. Fearing a surge in inflation, which helps a government reduce the value of its debt obligations, domestic and foreign investors could dump U.S. Treasury securities. Further damage to American democratic institutions and the independence of the Federal Reserve, both potential outcomes if Trump were to be reelected, would reduce trust in .S. financial markets and the dollar.

华盛顿可能过于自信，损害了美刀的地位。市场可能会认为米国公共债务的水平和轨迹不可持续，从而出现临界点。担心通货膨胀激增，这有助于政府降低其债务义务的价值，国内和外国投资者可能会抛售米国国债。如果特朗普连任，米国民主机构和美联储独立性进一步受损，将减少对米国金融市场和美刀的信任。

Paradoxically, however, chaos has proved favorable for the dollar, Any economic and geopolitical turmoil, even if unleashed by the United States, tends to lead investors worldwide to search for safety, And U.S financial markets are the only ones large enough to meet their demands.

然而，令人矛盾的是，混乱对美刀来说是有利的。无论是由米国引发的经济和地缘政治动荡，还是其他因素，都会导致全球投资者寻求安全避风港。米国金融市场是唯一足够大以满足他们需求的市场。

Rather than counting on economic and institutional frailties in other countries, U.S. politicians could reinforce the dollar's dominance simply by playing their cards right. Economic policies that promote growth and financial stability, including through disciplined fiscal policy that reins in government debt, would help. Ensuring the Federal Reserve's independence and more judicious use of financial sanctions would preserve trust in the dollar.

与依赖其他国家的经济和制度脆弱性不同，米国政治家可以通过正确运用策略来加强美刀的主导地位。促进增长和金融稳定的经济政策，包括通过严格的财政政策控制政府债务，将有所帮助。确保美联储的独立性和更审慎地使用金融制裁将维护对美刀的信任。

The story of the dollar is, ultimately, less about the United States strength than about the rest of the world's weaknesses. Until that disparity changes, and seemingly no matter how badly the United States plays its cards, don't expect the dollar to decline.

美刀的故事，最终与米国的实力关系较小，更多地与世界其他国家的弱点有关。在这种差距不发生改变的情况下，似乎无论米国如何打出自己的牌，都不要指望美刀会下降。

THE END.

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