最近各大媒体和同行都在宣传 Trump 的新财长 Scott Bessent。
一、宏观对冲与自由平等
作为全球宏观投资者，我个人也支持 Trump，但我并不是绝对的支持 Trump 的所有地缘和经济政策。我支持他，是因为 Biden 代表的民主党已经全面黑化，为了美国隐形政府的利益，不惜发动乌克兰战争，支持以色列屠杀巴勒斯坦百姓，在中国周边制造地缘冲突，并在全球范围内挥舞着比 Trump 更严的贸易战大棒。同时，民主党为了拉选票，操纵媒体，徇私舞弊，无下限讨好移民，LGBT, 非法移民，他们正在摧毁人类现代的文明，为了自己的自由去禁锢其他地球人的自由。
从某种意义上，Trump 的二次出山，实际底层逻辑是人类为自由和平等而战的体现。从人文主义的角度，我认为某种意义上可以和法国资产阶级革命，拿破仑单打独斗欧洲王权贵族媲美。
Soros 支持民主党，也许早期出于自由，但后期已经沦为美国的金融战，媒体战工具 —— 据法国电视台Canal+和Oliver Stone的纪录片《Ukraine On Fire》报道，，乌克兰极右翼纳粹党就得益于Soros的扶持，后者也通过NGO操控乌克兰的新闻舆论，从而为挑起俄乌冲突服务。
Druckenmiller 既不喜欢 Biden， 也不因为要推翻 Biden 而支持 Trump，他可以说是一个心理较为纯净的人，有点像陶渊明。
Scott Bessent 一反 Soros 派系亲民主党的传统，不落窠臼，积极入世，我个人认为可圈可点。不过他的执政方针却是逆全球化，他认为美国被全球化侵犯了利益，这是睁着眼说瞎话，为极右派服务，为地缘冲突服务。全球化虽然加大了美国国内贫富差距，但也扩大了美国的服务业就业和高端制造，把美国的国力，高科技，金融霸权，股市全面推向了繁荣。降低贫富差距可以通过其他负反馈机制来矫正，比如福利 —— 但不能为了彰显美国贫富差距大的问题而过度妖魔化全球化。而且妖魔化全球化，实际就是为了妖魔化中国做铺垫 —— 这将激化地缘冲突，增加贸易战，甚至战争的风险。
In an October opinion piece in The Economist, Bessent singled out globalization as sparking growing inequality in the U.S., which has led to widening social and economic disparities.
"Western middle- and working-class populations are growing increasingly wary of globalization," he wrote. "The only way to preserve the benefits of the international trading system is to question some of its mistaken assumptions and update them for the current moment."
—— CBS
二、连年亏损，AUM只有3亿美金
Scott Bessent 这个人我在海外几乎从来没听说过。但因为他被 Trump 选为美国财长，国人们对他顿时趋之若鹜。我和同行说这个人水平一般的时候，很多人主动为他辩护。
那么让我们一起来分析一下他的能力。据路透社和MorningStar，Scott Bessent 的 Key Square
在2015年起步20亿美金（Soros投资）规模，最高45-50亿美金。
2017,2018,2021显著亏损，据New York City Police Pensions Fund养老金文件。
Soros 在2018年撤资，据Reuters。其他机构客户 澳大利亚的 Future Fund, Morgan Stanley Alternative Investment Partners, New York City Police and Fire pension funds 养老金也相继撤离。
据SEC数据：2024年2季度，就只有3亿美金。
—— 20亿RMB的规模，别说在国际市场，拿到大陆也只是二线私募。
Bessent first started Key Square in late 2015, via one of the largest fundraisings in the history of hedge funds that saw the macro fund take in around $4.5 billion from investors.
Since then, Key Square has experienced a sharp drop in its assets under management to just over $800 million in the first quarter of 2023, according to analysis of public filings by AUM 13f.
The macro hedge fund has achieved inconsistent returns since being started almost a decade ago that have seen it post a series of significant losses, including in 2017, 2018, and 2021, according to disclosure from the New York City Police Pensions Fund.
Key Square, nonetheless, made strong gains in its first full-year of trading, in 2016, on the back of a winning bet on a drop in the value of Britain’s sterling caused by a vote in favor of the U.K.’s exit from the European Union, according to a source speaking to Reuters.
Bessent’s played a key role in helping his former employer, Soros Fund Management, bet against the U.K.’s pound on ‘Black Wednesday’ in 1992, prior to his joining the firm.
Soros pulled his investments out of Key Square in 2018, according to Reuters. Major investors including Australia’s Future Fund, Morgan Stanley Alternative Investment Partners, and the New York City Police and Fire pension funds, have also withdrawn their investments, the report said.
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024112529/scott-bessents-hedge-fund-has-seen-up-and-down-returns
我发现国内的人就喜欢做别人思想的奴隶，崇拜金权。中国人很多就这个德性 —— 看到有钱有权的，自己会脑补对方能力。
Soctt Bessen 从政能力强，不代表做交易能力强。
中国自古有大公无私的典故：“外举不避仇，内举不避子，祁黄羊可谓公矣”。我们对每一个人都要客观的分析，把他拆成多因子。这世上没有绝对的好人与坏人，每个人都有其多面性。
我们不要拿自己的爱好来挑战别人的专业 —— 但也不要拿别人的爱好挑战自己的专业。比如因为 Bessent 当选财政部长（职位也不能证明他的经济管理能力），就非要认为他的投资或宏观交易做得好。
至于网传的狙击英镑，这个策略完全是 Stanley Druckenmiller 和 Soros 设计的，他充其量只是个小配角。
而2011年做空日元，我认为和狙击英镑类似，实际都是 Soros 在编外充当美国金融军团的马前卒，在一定程度上利用了美国政府资源，为了美国利益服务 —— 狙击英镑 = 狙击欧元，为远期做空欧元埋下伏笔。做空日元，实际是执行安倍经济学 —— 大概率是美日一起设计的针对中国的金融战和地缘转向，我们之前分析过，不再赘述。在这种事件中，Bessent很可能只是一个执行者。
三、3-3-3
Bessent的3-3-3政策，总体来说我是同意的，关于原油减产一说，我们早在1月和6月已经都预测到，Trump 为了赢得大选，将会打压通胀，其主要路径只有2个：
俄乌停战，扩产原油，打压原油价格 —— 这个我们在6月已经和机构朋友分享了我们宏观对冲交易策略，做多美国能源股/做空美油。
至于降低美国财政赤字和增加美国经济增速 —— 当然好了，但是实际如何落地呢？
打压财政赤字，经济增速大概率会降低。—— 如果走Elon Musk的裁公务员也可行，但是改革派对于建制派革命，实际成果如何，我们拭目以待。当年王安石变法，贾似道变法都是为了国家和百姓利益削弱利益集团，最后卷入政治斗争，身败名裂。
另外 Bessent 还认为日元被低估了 40% —— 那么他其实并不理解日本在美国地缘利益链条中的重要性。如果不是日本甘心当美国的走狗，恶意贬值日元去支持美元，从而帮助美元降通胀；美国的通胀将会比现在更加恶化，从而加剧美国的债务危机。从这一点看，Bessent 其实对某些市场内在结构的分析并不擅长
—— 这可能也解释了为什么他非常羡慕Druckenmiller 具备解构市场内在逻辑，见微知著的能力了 ——
“我们当时已经准备一阵子了。而这笔交易是索罗斯量子基金在全球宏观对冲基金业中脱颖而出的良好例子，因为我们做了十分详尽的研究。Stanley和 George 相信，如果你能找出微观层次正在发生什么，你就能勾勒出全景。”
What are Bessent's political and economic views?
Among those updates: tariffs, with Bessent arguing in his Fox News piece that taxes on goods imported into the U.S. can "increase revenue to the Treasury, encourage businesses to restore production and reduce our reliance on industrial production from strategic rivals."
Bessent has advised Trump to create a "3-3-3" policy, which includes cutting the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, as well as pushing GDP growth to 3% via deregulation and pumping out an extra 3 million barrels of oil each day, according to the Wall Street Journal.
What about Bessent's ties with Soros?
The relationship between a one-time Soros protégé and a Republican leader like Trump may seem unusual, given that the billionaire philanthropist is viewed negatively by many conservatives.
But Trump views Bessent's experience working for Soros as a positive, according to the Journal, which noted that the former president is impressed with the legendary investor's wealth.
While at Soros Fund Management, Bessent bet against the yen, generating almost $1 billion over a three-month period, the Journal noted.
—— CBS
相关资料：
Scott Bessent
Key Square Group
Scott Bessent serves as Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer for Key Square Group, a New York based investment partnership that he founded in 2015. Mr. Bessent was Chief Investment Officer for Soros Fund Management, the investment vehicle for the Soros Family and their foundations, from 2011 to 2015.
From 1991 to 2000, Mr. Bessent was managing partner of Soros Fund's London office, including the period of the British Pound devaluation. He was previously associated with Brown Brothers Harriman, The Olayan Group, Kynikos Associates and Protégé Partners.
From 2006-2010, Mr. Bessent was an adjunct professor at Yale University where he taught economic history. He is profiled in the book on macro investors, Inside the House of Money, and features prominently in Sebastian Mallaby’s history of hedge funds, More Money than God. He is a frequent speaker on economic and investment panels.
M. Bessent resides in Greenwich, CT with his spouse and two children. He is a trustee of Rockefeller University and Classical American Homes Preservation Trust. Mr. Bessent is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He holds a B.A. degree from Yale University.
————
Meet The Hedge Fund Superstar George Soros Just Hired To Take Over His $25 Billion Fund
Julia La Roche Sep 20, 2011, 1:01 AM GMT+8
Scott Bessent, a veteran at Soros Fund Management who ran George Soros's European investments for eight years, is now returning to the firm as chief investment officer, Bloomberg reported。
Bessent, 49, who some consider Soros' protege, will now oversee the $25 billion that belongs to Soros, his family and foundations, after Soros retired this summer and Keith Anderson, the former CIO left in July.
“I am pleased to announce that Scott Bessent will join Soros Fund Management LLC,” the letter from Soros reportedly said.
Here's what he we know about him and his career thus far. It's been killer.
Bessent was born in Conway, South Carolina. He attended Yale and graduated with honors in 1984.
He would later return to his alma mater as an adjunct professor teaching a class a class called "Hedge Funds: History, Theory and Practice."
As a student, Bessent planned on pursuing a career in journalism, but he ended up taking an internship for the famed money manager Jim Rogers instead.
After graduation, he went to work for Brown Brothers Harriman. He later did a stint with the Olayan Group -- Saudi Arabian- based holding company.
Eventually he moved to Jim Chanos's hedge fund Kynikos Associates. Since Soros was a major client for Chanos, Bessent decided to make the move in 1991 to Soros Fund Management.
Bessent, who is openly gay, quickly found success in the cut-throat world of finance.
He worked at Soros Fund Management from 1991-2000. By the age of 29, Bessent was running Soros' European fund.
Soros' decided to fire the unit and essentially disbanded the fund. But Bessent was left to manage a $300 million portfolio, about a third of the assets in Soros’s main fund at the time.
By the end of his tenure with Soros, Bessent was overseeing about $1.5 billion, generating annualized returns of 26.5%, the report said.
He left and decided to go solo and start his own hedge fund called Bessent Capital based in London and New York.
From the Telegraph:
"George is going to be 70 in August and I think his parameters have hanged. I am a young guy. If I were 20 years older, I would probably have the same attitude that he has and would be happy with double-digit returns. However, over the past nine years I have had a compound annual return of 30pc in Europe on a capital base of $1 billion to $2 billion and I hope to be able to replicate that."
He was able to quickly raise $1 billion for his hedge fund.
However, he ended up losing more than 10% in his European stock fund in the first half of 2001. As a result, his investors started to pull out, so he decided to move back into macro investing. He ended up converting the fund in a family office format in 2005.
In 2007, he was appointed as director of research and strategy at Protégé Partners, a New York-based fund of funds, the Bloomberg report said.
While he was in the middle of his most recent project, which was forming KeySquare Group, a macro fund, he was recruited by Soros Fund Management.
When he was 38 year old, he was named one of Crain's New York's "40 Under 40," a list that recognizes New Yorkers from across different industries.
He doesn't always win though.
Bessent purchased an 11-room Manhattan duplex in 2007 at 1 Sutton Place South for $12 million, $700,000 below the asking price.
