今天港股市场先大跌又回稳；
好些个朋友跑过来问我发生了什么事情（还顺便转发了一两条颇具有情绪性的短视频给我）；
几家交易台信息看下来，整体应该都是比较风轻云淡。
我们不废话，直接看看资金流有没有什么新的变动：
一个高盛港股收盘后的market wrap；
老规矩，原文这里不方便放出来；需要的朋友可以我微信交流（放在文末；最近假期，而且有时候人比较多，迟回复见谅）；
180K
高盛港股的market wrap (一小时前）
市场的特点是，有时上涨，有时下跌。（180K：听起来风轻云淡）香港股市经历了自政策主导的涨势开始以来的首次回调,部分获利盘出现。但市场韧性依然强劲；恒生指数最初下跌-4.5%,但后迅速收窄跌幅,最终下跌-1.5%。恒生中国企业指数结束了13个交易日的连续上涨，但整体叙述并未改变。
The thing about markets is that sometimes they go up, and sometimes they go down. HK shares logged their first pullback since this policy-driven rally started as some healthy profit taking flows set in, but the resilience is evident as HSI -1.5% was down -4.5% at one point intraday before paring losses quickly. HSCEI -1.6% ended its 13-day winning streak, but the narrative hasn’t changed；
根据彭博社报道,一位与财政部有关的研究所前负责人表示,北京有空间通过发行多达1.4万亿美元的特别债券来增加财政支持,呼应了上周另一位前官员的呼吁。
BBG reports a former head of research institute affiliated
with the MoF said Beijing has room to ramp up fiscal support by issuing as much as 10t yuan (US$1.4t) in special debt, echoing calls from another former State Council official last week.
有消息称,财政部可能在今日召开发布会宣布财政措施,但最终未能兑现,可能导致了部分获利盘的出现。
There were chatters about a MoF presser today potentially announcing fiscal measures, but that did not materialize which could explain some of the profit taking moves.
流动性方面,交易量再次活跃,较过去4周平均水平高出2.2倍。客户方面,卖出意愿相对较强,卖出量为买入量的1.6倍。即使指数最初下跌5%,我们也没有出现恐慌性抛售。
Flow wise pad was busy again with notional traded 2.2x vs 4w average, clients skewed 1.6x better to sell. We didn’t panic selling at all even when index was trading down 5%。
LOs的卖出偏好相对温和,仅为1.3倍。他们主要卖出了通信服务和信息技术(互联网、硬件)板块,同时在Consumer Disc(外卖、旅游、新能源车、电商)、金融(券商、保险)和能源(石油)板块买入。
LOs only had a slight 1.3x sell skew driven by outflows in Comm Svcs and Info Tech
(internet, hardware) while remaining buyers in Consumer Disc (delivery, travel, EVs, ecomm), Financials (brokers, insurers) and Energy (oil).
而hedge fund(HFs)则再次主导了资金流出,除金融(保险)板块外,几乎全面抛售,包括Consumer(外卖)、必需消费品、材料和工业板块。
HFs drove the outflow again, selling in all sectors but Financials (insurers) including outflow in Consumer (delivery), Staples, Materials, and Industrials.
获利了结的抛售主要来自于近期表现良好的"快钱"股票,长线投资者相对平稳,下午指数反弹时也有抄底买盘出现。(180K: 手动划重点）
The profit taking selling mostly involved fast money selling recent outperformers while LOs were mostly sitting steady, and dip buyers emerged in the afternoon as index rallied again.
总体而言,我们在香港市场保持净多头头寸 （按周和按月统计），空头头寸分别下降2.7%和4.6% （180K：这里直接看英文清晰点）。
Overall, we remain net covered in HK on a WoW and MoM basis, with shorts down 2.7% and 4.6% respectively.
Prime Book 流向和持仓情况更新
9月,我们的Prime Book业务在中国和香港市场均创下了资金净流入的新高纪录, long buying 相比 covers 的比例高达4.5:1。
PB flow/positioning update: both China and HK saw record inflows in our PB book in September, dominated by long buying vs covers (4.5 to 1).
H股占近一半的买入,A股占30%。中国整体配置比例上升1.2个百分点至5.9%(处于32个百分位),净头寸则上升2.4个百分点至9.2%(49个百分位)。
H-shares made up nearly half of the buying and A-shares 30%. China gross allocation +1.2% to 5.9% (32nd %tile), net allocation +2.4% to 9.2% (49th %tile).
虽然增幅较为明显,但仍低于此前一些主要市场催化事件时的涨幅(如中国经济重开、2022年政治局会议),那时总头寸和净头寸分别上升1.5%-2.5%和3%-6%。
The increases, while sharp, is still less than during
previous rallies (China re-opening, 2022 Politburo) where gross was +1.5% to +2.5% and
net was +3% to +6%.
指数波动性方面 亚太地区指数隐含波动率在连续几个交易日现货波动率上升后有所回落。
Index vol update (Keita Umetani): implied came down in AEJ space after multiple sessionsof spot up vol up fashion.
今日市场消化了香港股市的回调,交易活跃度有所降低。一些账户减持了恒生中国企业指对冲头寸,获得了小幅获利,但总体头寸仍维持超级看涨。(ultra bullish)
In terms of flow, franchise biz quietened down
today as market digested the move in HK. A few accounts unwound their upside exposure in HSCEI, taking small profit, though positioning remain ultra bullish.
我们的PB数据显示,在上周中国股市(A股/H股/ADR)创下资金净流入新高后,对中国和日本股票的配置水平已经回到了持平的状态。过去12个月中,中国股票的配置水平一直低于日本。
Our PB data shows HF allocation in China and Japan is now back equal levels
after last week’s record inflow into Chinese equities (A/H/ADR). Allocation in China has
been below that of Japan for most of the past 12 months.
