今天的市场，情绪性拉满；
1. 很多市场参与者抱着各自的小作文，2万亿，3万亿，10万亿，满怀欣喜地等待开盘；
2. NDRC 的讲话开始后，市场情绪迅速从憧憬，转向紧张，急转失望；
短短半天，中港市场从暖男直接化身渣男（每次期待落空，这也是为什么外资迟迟不敢下重注的原因）；
市场的情绪，已经通过天量成交量，和巨震的资产价格反应出来，这里我们不赘述。
市场期待（expectation）的锚点，接下来要放在哪里？
挑了几篇交易台的覆盖，一起看看。
一个 Bofa 的 quick comment；
一个 高盛 港股盘后的 market wrap
一些 UBS 的 takeaways；
老规矩，原文我就不方便在这里放出来了；有需要的朋友可以加我微信交流（二维码放在文末）；加的人比较多，会回得慢一些，抱歉抱歉。
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一个 Bofa 的 quick comment；
一些关于市场回顾
今天早上，买入趋势迅速减小，因为 long only 获利了结，对冲基金增加了空头头寸。
HK CHINA FLOWS: Buy skew diminishing quickly this morning as LO took profit and HF added shorts.
具体来看，从自上周四/五以来，资金流主要是被动买入；而本周初，主动资金在互联网、银行和保险股上获利了结；
Recall we've since Thursday/Friday seeing passive buying mainly; while start of this week the active managers are taking profit in Internet, Banks and Insurers;
对冲基金在短期做空券商，并在“广泛消费品”中进行双向操作——买入旅游/澳门，卖出啤酒/瓶装水。
HF shorting CH Brokers and are 2-way active in "broad consumers" -- better to BUY (adding tourism/Macau, selling beers/bottled water).
总体而言，下午交易时段，卖盘终于慢慢冷静，市场被动买入的推动下，我们看到的买入资金流增强（又变得和上周四/五类似）。
Overall, selling pressure calms down in the afternoon session and we are better buyer driven by passive buying (similar to Thursday/Friday).
一些思考 / 反馈
大部分人（尤其是境内投资者）把这个下跌归咎于FGW 缺乏增量新消息
People (esp. onshore investors) would generally blame the lack of incrementally new news to greet the A-share reopening post Golden Week.
然而我们美银 Helen Siao 很早就预计今天上午10点的FGW会议上不会有明确的数值细节或新的刺激方案，因为只有FGW没有财政大佬们参与。老实说，发改委会议的要点与预期一致。（这里美银顺带吹了一下自己的分析师，但是整体是为了表述这个“期待”其实并不是 base case / 基准情景）
Just to reiterate economist Helen Siao's view that she has expected no explicit/numerical details / new packages on stimulus at today 10am NDRC meeting because only NDRC while no MoF officials at this event. To be honest, the NDRC meeting takeaways came in-line.
相反，Helen始终提醒我们更重要的是关注之后的“NPC大会”，特别是债券发行的批准会会议受到更密切的关注。（180K：这里我插播一张高盛的日历）
Instead, Helen has always reminded it’s more important to watch NPC Standing Committee meeting where special bond issuance approval would be more keenly anticipated.
在今天的修正之前，我们认为境内投资者已经又一次预期今天会有2-10万亿人民币的特别债券发行，2万亿人民币是基本情况（180K：其实并不是）。现在我们可以感到安慰的是，这种激进的预期在今天市场估值后有所回落（180K：少看一些小作文）。
Before today's correction, we believe (again) onshore investors have baked up expectations to RMB2-10tn special bond issuance out today w/ RMB2tn being the base case. We should feel consoled now that such aggressive thinking is pulling back w/ market valuation after today.
在国庆假期期间新开设的A股证券账户尚未开始交易。今天，中国仅看到零售投资者的银行账户向证券账户的现金转移。从理论上讲，他们将能在明天根据T+1原则购买A股（180K：这里更像是事后看回来，找找原因）。
The newly opened A-share brokerage accounts opened during Golden Week has NOT started trading yet. In China, today only sees the cash transfer from retail investors' banking accounts to brokerage accounts. Theoretically, they will be able to buy A-share from tomorrow on T+1 principle.
我们的宏观销售Benat O.还推测了一些其他原因，包括国家队可能的获利了结和从A股向H股的轮动。考虑到在国庆假期期间A股市场关闭时H股的反弹，今天的-9.6%下跌将恒生中国企业指数重置回国庆假期开始时，A/H估值差距在今天之后扩大。
Our macro sales Benat O. has also speculated some other reasons including possible profit-taking by National Team and rotation to H from A. With how much H-shares have rallied during A-share market close during Golden Week, the -9.6% plummet today just reset HSCEI back to the start of Golden Week and A/H valuation gap widens after today.
我们不得不对策略师Winnie Wu表示赞赏，她在两周前（9月27日）预测中国市场有15~25%的上行空间，并在进入第四季度战略时警告“买入一切”的阶段已经结束（10月7日）（180K:这里纯粹是 bofa 继续自吹自擂他家分析师有多准）
Kudos to strategist Winnie Wu who called for 15~25% upside at China markets two weeks ago (dated Sep 27), and then warns that the "buy everything" stage is over entering into 4Q strategy (dated Oct 7)..
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2. 一个 高盛 港股盘后的 market wrap；
我们认为，任何大型刺激方案可能需要多个关键部门的共同努力，且将主要依赖财政资源进行资金支持。我们将关注即将召开的临时会议和10月底的下一次“NPC大会”。（180K：和BofA观点一样，其实不一定要这么悲观；仍然可能有一些刺激窗口）
We believe any large stimulus package may require joint efforts from many key ministries, and will need to be largely funded by fiscal resources. We willbe watching for upcoming ad hoc meetings and the next NPC standing committee meeting late October.
我们继续预期，上头将在年底前批准额外的1-2万亿超长期特别债券配额，利用前几年积累的未使用地方债券发行配额来促进债务置换，并在2025年及之后维持财政宽松的立场。
We continue to expect policymakers to approve an additional RMB1-2tn ultra-long-term central government special bond quota by year-end, tap unspent local government bond issuance quota accumulated fromprevious years to facilitate debt swaps, and maintain their fiscal easing stance in 2025 and even beyond.
资金流层面，香港市场活跃，但名义交易量仅为过去四周日均水平的约2倍。市场呈现1.5倍的卖出偏差，主要由对冲基金的获利了结和系统性账户的做空驱动（今天我们的平台上，空头占香港总销售的40%）。
Flow wise, the pad was busy in HK but notional traded was just about 2x vs 4w daily average. There was a 1.5x sell skew overwhelmingly driven by HF profit taking and systematic accounts shorting (shorts 40% of total sale in HK on our pad today).
对冲基金净卖出金融、通讯服务、日用消费品和信息技术板块，而在材料板块则有小额买入。
HFs net sold Financials, Comm Svcs, Staples, and Info Tech vs small buyer in Materials.
大型股和近期表现优异的股票遭遇了大部分资金流出。我们还注意到，A/H交易中再次出现A股溢价的买入。
Large cap and recent outperformers saw most outflow. We are also noting A/H trades buying A-premium again.
有趣的是，Long only投资者实际呈现1.3倍的买入偏向，在金融、房地产、材料和医疗保健领域的高额买盘。市场下跌并未阻止机构投资者，反而推动了这些行业的某些低吸买入行为。然而，信息技术、工业和通讯服务板块则被机构净卖出。
Interestingly LOs actually skewed 1.3x buyer with chunky bids in Financials, Prop, Materials, and Healthcare. The market slump didn’t deter LO and in fact drove some dip-buying action in those sectors. Info Tec, Industrial and Comm Svcs were net sold by LOs however.
区域上，香港在我们的平台上是最大的资金流出市场，而A股则是最大的资金流入市场。从行业来看，只有房地产和材料板块实现了净买入，其他所有行业均出现净卖出，尤其是信息技术、金融和能源板块。
Regionally, HK was the largest outflow market on our pad vs China was the largest inflow market. Sector wise, only Real Estate / Materials were net bought while all other sectors were net sold, lead by Info Tech / Financials / Energy.
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3.一些 UBS 的 takeaways；
然而，大佬们并没有直接回应路透社和彭博社提出的问题（180K：有听直播的朋友应该有印象；回答是3个观察4个重点之类的）；彭博和路透这两个来源在过去几周内强烈暗示将会有财政政策刺激措施，关于财政刺激包的规模以及在今年配额耗尽后是否会发行更多地方专项债券。这些问题将持续存在，直到财政部的新闻发布会安排好时间（180K：一样，仍然抱有期待）。
However, the officials did not straightforwardly respond to the questions raised by Reuters and Bloomberg, two sources of strong fiscal policy stimulus in the offing in the past weeks, about the
approximate size of the fiscal stimulus package and the issuance of more special local government bond after this year’s quota is depleted. These questions will remain lingering until the press conference attended by the MOF officials fixes its schedule.
然而，零售投资者的跟风效应可能会在未来几天增加市场的波动性。更重要的是，市场的热情依赖于即将宣布的财政刺激的规模，UBS预测范围从2万亿人民币到超过10万亿人民币不等。UBS认为，近期更合理的预期是一个较为温和的1.5-2万亿人民币的刺激包，而在2025年初步预测的基础上，另有2-3万亿人民币的财政扩张。
However, the herding effect of retail investors could add to the volatility of the market in coming days. More importantly, the passion rests on the size of fiscal policy to be announced, which ranges wildly from RMB 2 trillion to over RMB 10 trillion by UBS China macro team. UBS China macro team estimates it may be more reasonable to expect a more modest package of RMB 1.5-2 trillion in the near term, while another RMB 2-3 trillion of fiscal expansion on top of the initial forecast volume for 2025.
确实，初步基调的变化为刺激指明了正确的方向。但必须承认，迄今为止的情绪反弹可能过于突然和全民。
It is true that the initial policy tone change has charted a correct direction for China’s economy. But it has to be acknowledged that the sentiment rally so far may
be too abrupt, too universal.
彭博称，上头已向银行发出窗口指导，要求对杠杆交易进行严格监管，以保护投资者在股市中的利益，限制银行信贷资金进入股市。
Bloomberg news reported that China’s financial regulators have issued window guidance to banks demanding strong regulation on leveraged trading and to protect investors’ interest in the stock market, restricting the access of bank credit funds into the
stock market.
市场可能需要一些时间来消化刺激方案的影响，这可能对市场反弹反而有帮助。
Some paucity for the market to digest the implication of the stimulus package may sustain a more lengthy rally.
