昨天的 “放水” / “反攻” / “”火箭炮” / “组合拳” 已经从我们本土市场,向华尔街传导;
从昨晚到今天,整个市场的大部分注意力(不论是研报,交易台,还是吃饭时候隔壁桌聊的话题),都集中在 PBoC的刺激上面。
政策本身的一些内容,我就不聊太多了,各家内资外资都有“洋洋洒洒”的长文解读;今天时间紧迫,集中在2个重点:
1. 聊聊目前的市场情绪 (看看交易台数据反应的一些投资者行为);
2. 聊聊一些数字(这些已经出台的放水,相对于市场,规模几何);
老样子,原文就不方便直接放出来了;有需要的朋友可以另外后台联系。
目前的市场情绪
为了一些信息的准确性,某些地方我尽量保持中英双语;
昨天晚上出来的 - 亚太交易时段的总结
瑞银亚太部门主管Jamie Briggs 今天与许多客户进行了会谈,可以明显感觉到当前中国市场情绪有所改善的情况;但这主要集中在资本市场,即流动性和回购措施,对实体经济复苏仍缺乏信心;
Jamie Briggs (UBS APAC head of KNET) has been meeting lots of clients today so can indeed share improving sentiment on China… but it’s very capital markets focused, ie liquidity and buy back measures, still no faith of an actual economy turnaround from these lower rates.
市场的重点是买入中国互联网和中国银行股。
Focus is on Buying China Internet & Buying China Banks
推动恒生中国企业指数创出新高的原因,似乎表明当前的反弹主要是由于做空回补。
Looking at the drivers of the HSCEI which keeps making new day highs, suggests the current rally is led by covering.
中国投资者 - 他们总体上加码/买入多头头寸。有少量卖出集中在一些他们想退出的行业(主要集中在制药行业),但总的来说这个群体在多个其他行业都有买入。
CHINA SPECIALISTS - they're generally grossing up / going long. There are small pockets of selling focused on sectors they just want to get out of (mostly focused on pharma for some reason) - but desk saw buying across a number of other sectors for this cohort.
外资 - 在政策演讲结束后,机构投资者的抛售有所增加。我们发现对冲基金在的做空回补,是昨天下午一个非常明显的主题。
FOREIGN INVESTORS - selling from LO picked up after the policy speech. We have been able to find buyers from the HF crowd who are covering shorts. This has been a very consistent theme this PM.
衍生品: 可观察到看涨期权和看涨价差的上行兴趣有所增加,体现出一定的防守性。
Derivatives: Noticeable uptick in upside interest via defensive upside calls and call spreads
The business that was printed on the high touch desk also reflected this observation. As the day went on, the crosses on the HK pad showed a very consistent pattern - especially between Foreign funds vs China funds.
今天早上出来的 - 美股交易时段的总结
中国的ADR普遍上涨,这些变动在很大程度上与亚洲早些时候的交易情况相似,香港市场领涨,创下自2022年3月以来的最佳表现。
The moves are largely mirroring the earlier sessions in Asia with Hong Kong leading and having its best day since March 2022.
交易桌上看到成交量相比近期平均水平显著改善,大多数行业和个股都冲击新的月度高点。电子商务、流媒体和电动车似乎在这一消息中受益最大。股票开始回升,接近当日高点,XPEV、TME、BZ、FUTU和PDD等个股表现突出。
The desk is seeing a dramatic improvement in volume vs recent averages with most sectors/single names pushing to new monthly highs. Ecommerce, Streamers, and EVs are seeming to benefit the most intraday from the news. Stocks are starting to bounce back towards the highs of the session with some notable moves in XPEV, TME, BZ, FUTU, and PDD.
Long only 参与仍然较少。交易桌上今日的买入比为2:1,尽管早盘有一些抛售,我认为这是获利回吐,短期做空的情况较少,主要以做多为主。
Long only participation remains light. The desk is 2:1 better to buy on the day with some selling in Ecommerce early, I think profit taking with limited shorts/mostly long selling.
2. 聊聊一些数字
这里引用大摩团队的一个initial thoughts;
一些观点
UBS的