今天又是小作文主导的一个交易日；
早上下午都传了不同版本的一些小作文（有一个版本是12万亿，4 地产 + 2 消费 + 6 地方），最后会不会验证不得而知，但是市场表现反正是相信了。
小作文之外，市场仍然在消化特朗普 2.0；挑了几篇外资交易台的覆盖，看看今天的市场叙事。
一篇高盛的 market wrap；
其他一些 chatter (综合了UBS, GS 等等几家）；
老规矩，原文这里就不方便放出来了；有需要的朋友可以微信交流（二维码放在文末）；最近人多回复慢，见谅。
180K
1. 高盛的market wrap
A.一些市场小结
股市从昨天的抛售中反弹，抹去了大部分昨天的损失，而中国A股则继续强劲，显示出其韧性。（180K：印证了我们昨天的说法，昨天的下跌更像是“肌肉记忆”/ “膝跳反应”）
HK shares rebounded from yesterday’s sell off to erase most of the US election day losses, while China A- shares powered ahead and built on its resilience.
在NPC会议即将结束之际，对于关税的担忧，被本土刺激的希望所抵消；值得一提的是，来自美国一些不确定性已经消除（180K：虽然特朗普的具体政策仍然不稳定，但是至少靴子落地，剩下的就是兵来将挡）。
Tariff fears were offset by stimulus hopes as NPCSC meetings conclude tomorrow, especially with the uncertainties surrounding US politics now mostly out of the way.
关于 NPC的决议，国内社交媒体上流传着各类未确认的小作文；特别是来自于关注消费领域。
Speaking of NPC – onshore social media circulating unconfirmed chatters about stimulus to be announced, with specific focus on the consumption angle.
尽管我们无法通过官方渠道确认这些信息，但国内市场似乎相信将会出台价值12万亿元人民币的措施：其中6万亿元是地方债券置换，4万亿元是针对地产，这些消息已被路透社广泛报道。
While we cannot confirm with any official sources, onshore markets seem to believe there will be measures worth 12t yuan coming: the 6t yuan for local government bond swap + 4t yuan property-focused measures have been well reported by Reuters,
额外的2万亿元消费刺激的传闻则让投资者感到兴奋：我们的中国白酒指数上涨9.3%，中国消费股上涨4.8%，中国旅游股上涨4.5%，澳门博彩股上涨3.3%。
the additional 2t yuan of consumption stimulus chatters is what got investors excited: our China Liquor basket +9.3%, China Consumption +4.8%, China Tourism +4.5%, Macau Gaming +3.3%.
不过，值得注意的是，市场对地方债解决的预期仍为6万亿元（跨多个年度），以及1万到2万亿元的资本重组资金。（180K：这里兴奋点不大，尤其是multiple years，没有及时效应）
Worth noting however GIR expectations remains to be 6t yuan local debt resolution (across multiple years) and 1-2t CGSB for bank recapitalization.
B.一些关于资金流
在资金流动方面，市场倾向于1.2倍的卖压，名义金额较四周日均水平增加了85%。
Flow wise the pad skewed 1.2x seller with notional +85% vs 4w daily average.
Long only流动性占据了80%的市场流动，并推动了卖出倾向。（180K：后面一点点篇幅有一个不同投资者对于 X 万亿的信仰程度，大家可以继续下拉）；
LO flows made up 80% of the pad and drove the sell skew.
早盘，通信服务（电信/互联网/游戏）和消费品（电动车/纺织品/电子商务/旅游）领域的资金流出十分显著，但在金融股（保险公司）方面出现了双向买入，信息技术领域则是在购买智能手机的同时卖出PC硬件。
Outflow in Comm Svcs (telcos / internet / gaming) and Consumer Disc (EVs / textiles / e-comm / travel) were notable in the morning, but there were buying in Financials (insurers) two-way in Info Tech (buying smartphone vs selling PC H/W).
对冲基金的流动性有所增加，但仍然相对安静，他们在消费品（澳门/旅游/配送）和信息技术（半导体）上有买入，但在通信服务（电信）和金融（保险）上则净卖出。
HF flows also picked up but still relatively quiet, they were buying Consumer Disc (Macau / travel / delivery) and Info Tech (semis) but net sold Comm Svcs (telco) and Financials (insurers).
活跃水平的提升无疑令人鼓舞，这与过去几场交易中大多数投资者的“观望”状态形成鲜明对比。
Activity level picking up is certainly encouraging, in sharp contrast with the “wait and see” mode most investors were in over the last few sessions.
随着NPC结果明天公布，我们感受到客户在此次事件前的乐观情绪——如果没有重大失望，从这里开始的上升趋势可能会保持不变。
With NPCSC results coming out tomorrow, we sense some client optimism heading into the event – and barring major disappointment the uptrend from here is likely to remain intact.
180K
2. 其他的一些Market chattter (综合了UBS, GS 等等几家）
A. 乐观程度排名
国内投资者的情绪非常乐观。与其担心特朗普可能对中国施加的关税，投资者们如今更关心的是：“NPC的刺激方案需要有多大才能抵消特朗普可能的关税？
The onshore investors sentiment has been very bullish. Rather than worrying about the Trump’s potentialtariff against China, what’s on investors’ minds these days is that “How much bigger the NPC’s stimuluspackage must be to offset the Trumps’ potential tariff?”
如果我对乐观情绪进行排名：
If I rank the bullishness in orders:
- 国内散户投资者（最乐观）（180K：在某些阶段，散户不一定是韭菜！）
- Onshore retail investors (most bullish),
-国内机构投资者（乐观），更倾向信任政府政策的整体方向，关注的不是“X万亿”的具体数额有多大）
- Onshore Institutional investors(bullish. Believing in the general direction of the govt polices. Focus isn’t so much on how big the “X” ofthe “X trillion” is”
- 海外机构投资者（适度乐观但持怀疑态度，许多人不断询问“X”应有多大）。
- , Offshore institutional investors (moderately bullish but skeptical. Many keep on askinghow big the “X” should be.
B. 一些基本面上的观察
从基本面来看，贸易战2.0可能会结束我们本土当前的增长模型，在这种模式下，出口和制造业一直是主要的增长驱动力。
Fundamentally, Trade War 2.0 could end China's current growth model, in which exports and manufacturing have been the main growth drivers.
在下一个增长模型中，国内需求，特别是消费，可能会再次成为主要驱动力，正如2010年代时一样。(180K：这也是为什么今天关于消费2万亿的小作文能够深入人心）
In the next growth model, domestic demand, especially consumption, could again become the primary driver, as it was during the 2010s.
经过持续三年的下行期，地产市场开始显示出初步的稳定迹象。今年10月，销售量实现了7.1%的首次增长，这是在实施自口罩以来最大规模的货币宽松政策后发生的。本土现在正准备推出额外的支持措施。10月的销售增长证明，中国的经济可以通过政策驱动。（180K：抛开实际经济效应，叙事能否开始形成？信心能否开始重塑？）
After enduring a prolonged three-year downturn, China’s property market is showing initial signs of stabilization. Sales volume registered its first growth (7.1%) in October this year, following Beijing's most substantial monetary easing since the pandemic. The government is now preparing to roll out additional support measures. The October sales growth demonstrated that China’s economy can be driven by policy measures.
现在，外部需求面临来自潜在贸易战2.0的重大下行风险。为此，上头可能会加大刺激措施，特别是在住房领域。如果这样，增长驱动力可能会再次转向国内需求。
Now, China's external demand faces significant downside risks from the potential Trade War 2.0. To offset this, policymakers may escalate stimulus measures, particularly in the housing sector. If this occurs, the growth driver could shift back to domestic demand.
自9月24日政策变化以来，我们看到买家逐渐重返市场，受到政府刺激信号的鼓励，并且预期房地产价格可能接近底部，未来有升值的潜力。（180K：信心重要过黄金）
Since the policy change on September 24, we have seen that buyers are gradually returning to the market, encouraged by government stimulus signals and expectations that property prices may be nearing their bottom, with potential for future appreciation.
C. 也有一些泼冷水的；
泼冷水的，我就暂时不翻译了；）不要影响我们今天的好心情。
GO ON VACATION
