本土市场重回渣男状态；
所谓渣男，和市场本身资质 / 表现 / 回报无关；而是其忽冷忽热，时而让人失望透顶，时而又让人心怀憧憬。
在一个高度不确定的市场里面，风险溢价很容易不成比例的增长；国庆前我们本以为终于可以摆脱这个状态，可惜好景不长，我们又回到了这个需要“揣测”上头意思的旧常态。
有时候政策的联动性，并非我们所幻想的密不透风；我一直都不提倡大棋论（并不是上头所有的安排，都有其缘由）；
在互联网反垄断的时候，我们已经见识过市场是如何被略带冲突的政策信号吓倒，最后又重新站起来（那时候反垄断刚结束，但是不到几天又出了个乌龙的 腾讯游戏的“鸭片论”）。
其他的就不多说了，挑了两篇交易台信息，看看这个周末如何“部署期待”
一篇高盛港股市场的market wrap；
一个JPM的短评
老规矩，原文不方便直接贴上来；有需要的朋友可以加我的微信（二维码在文末）交流沟通；加的人较多，加上这两天自己本身比较忙，回复不及时请大家见谅见谅。
180K
一个高盛的港股maket wrap
关于政策
香港市场再次经历了一段波动的交易时段，最终股市收跌。投资者对北京的更多刺激细节感到不耐烦（impatient），尤其是在 NDRC 昨日的新闻发布会让市场感到失望之后。
Another choppy session for HK markets which ultimately ended in shares trading lower as investors are getting impatient for more stimulus details from Beijing, especially after NDRC press conference yesterday left the market disappointed
财政部将在周六简报财政政策，但基于这一消息的反弹很快就消退了。恒生指数目前下跌1.4%，重返2万点心理关口，这是自9月29日以来的最低水平。
*CHINA MINISTRY OF FINANCE TO BRIEF ON FISCAL POLICY SATURDAY but the rebound on back of that was brief and quickly faded.
目前还无法预测他们将公布哪些具体细节 ，包括投资者急切想知道的财政政策包的规模。然而，这里有一些背景信息：
So far it’s anyone’s guess on what specific details they will announce, including the size of the fiscal package investors are so eager to hear about. However here are some background info
1. 任何额外预算的财政资金都需要 NPC 大会的批准，财政部不能提前宣布具体的人民币额外预算资金安排。
any extra-budget fiscal funding requires the NPC approval, and MOF cannot preannounce the specific RMB amount of extra-budget funding arrangement ahead of NPC.
2. 如果上头希望引导市场预期并提升市场情绪，他们可以召开临时会议（例如这一次周六的临时会议）。
if policymakers would like to guide market expectations and boost sentiment, they can host ad hoc meetings (such as this one coming up)
3. 对于地方债务置换的财政支持，上头可以利用过去几年积累的1.4万亿元人民币未使用的地方政府债券发行配额。
for fiscal support for local govt debt swaps, policymakers can leverage the RMB1.4tn unspent LGB issuance quota accumulated from previous years
4. 鉴于昨日NDRC会议后的市场反馈，未来几周临时会议将被谨慎考虑，以应对市场反应。
- given market feedback post-NDRC meeting yesterday, ad hoc meetings will be under
cautious consideration in the coming weeks for any market reaction
关于资金流
在资金流层面上，市场偏向买入，比例为1.7倍，交易名义金额略低于4周日均水平的1.5倍。
Flow wise the pad skewed 1.7x buyer, with notional traded just under 1.5x 4w daily average.
虽然Long Only 流入显著，但重点集中在宏观产品（如ETF）上，个股方面我们确实看到一些卖出的资金流。
LO inflows was notable but the focus was on macro products (ETFs) and in single names we did see some selling flow.
例如，消费品领域在反弹初期由LO买入，但随后出现了流出，主要由电子商务引领（与 delivery 相比），旅行和汽车股票也出现了资金流出。
Consumer Disc for example, a sector LOs bought at start of rally, saw outflow there lead by e-comm (vs buying in delivery) and travel / auto shares also saw outflows.
对冲基金再次净卖出，延续了上周末开始的获利了结流动，通信服务和消费品领域则普遍流出，包括互联网、汽车、教育、配送、纺织和澳门等小幅碎片化流出。
HFs net sold again continuing the profit taking flow that started late last week, Comm Svcs / Consumer Disc saw broad based outflow, including internet / autos / education / delivery / textile / macau in small fragmented clips
总体而言，由于ETF的买盘，香港实际上是最大的净买入区域。
Overall HK was actually the largest net bought region thanks to the ETF bid, however. Given lack of
clarity and experience post-NDRC yday, expect more volatility in the market ahead
然而，考虑到昨日NDRC会议后缺乏清晰度和经验，预计未来市场将更加波动。
高盛还特意提了提散户 / 零售买家 （180K：今天UBS / JPM也不约而同地继续强调散户资金，毕竟体量真的可以很大）
昨日的节后重启创下了历史上单日保证金买入的最高纪录：
Yesterday’s reopening was the highest single-day margin buying in history:
10月8日，日均保证金买入量达到4060亿元人民币，创历史新高。保证金买入余额较9月30日增加1070亿元人民币，回到2024年1月的水平。
- On Oct 8, daily gross margin buying volume reaches 406bn Rmb, the highest in history. Total margin buying balance +107bn RMB vs. Sep30, back to the Jan'24 level
注意，保证金融资作为散户情绪的一个指标，通常在市场上升趋势中增加，2015年和2020年期间的10个最大买入日中有9个发生在牛市中。
- Note that margin financing as a proxy of retail sentiment usually increases during market uptrends, with 9 out of the 10 largest buying days occurring during the bull markets of 2015 and 2020.
就行业而言，最大的保证金买入流入集中在非银行金融领域，其次是计算机、电子和通信等成长型行业。
- In terms of sectors, the biggest margin buying inflows were into Non-bank financials, followed by growth sectors such as Computers, Electronics and Communications.
同样在10月8日，活跃保证金交易投资者人数达到761,600人，而9月24日仅为260,000人。这意味着在6个交易日内，新增了50万名保证金投资者。在此期间，近30,000个新的保证金账户被开设。
- Also on Oct 8, the number of active margin trading investors reached 761,600, vs. just 260,000 on Sep 24. That being said, incrementally we have 500k additional margin investors joined the market within 6 trading days. During this same period, nearly 30,000 new margin accounts were opened.
注意，投资者必须在账户中至少有50万元人民币才能参与保证金交易。因此，越来越多的高端零售投资者（180K：这个“高端”只是英语翻译 high-profile；其实就是有钱点的散户；）加入市场。
- Note that investors must have at least 500k RMB in their accounts to participate in margin trading. That being said, we are having more high-profile retail investors joining the market.
保证金买入的一张图；
180K
2.一个JPM的短评；
JPM的观点一直都是偏牛的；这条短评的标题就颇有水准：
Slow is beautiful；（180K：外资也逐渐熟悉了我们“高质量牛市” / “新质牛市” 的论述；题外话，现在我干活慢一些的时候，我英国的大老板就会调侃我 需要一剂 new productivity boosters / 新质生产力）
以下是一些 takeaway；
我们强调了ZF正在谨慎管理市场预期，当前的“快速政策牛市”不应过热，而“高质量结构性牛市”是这轮反弹的最终目标。
I have highlighted how the central government is carefully managing market expecta'on that the current ““Fast-pace Policy Bull”” not to get overheated – and ““High Quality Structural bull”” is the end gaol of this rally.
这对ZF来说绝对是一个挑战，大家都见证了2015年牛市期间，过于乐观的市场情绪是多么具有破坏性（股价持续涨停，泡沫破裂，国家队介入）。
This is an absolute challenge for the government, especially considering how disruptive bullish sentiment was during the 2015 rally—where stock prices consistently reached their limit, leading to a bubble burst and intervention from the national team.
显然，这次中央政府采取了更慢的步伐，同时又没有发出强烈信号来“降温”，以保持投资者对这轮反弹的信心。
This time, it is clear that the central government is taking a slower pace while also not sending a strong message that they are “cooling things down,” aiming to maintain investor confidence in this rally.
因此，你看到“新指导”来规范“未经批准”的消费贷进入股市（上头可能认为抛物线式的超调风险较大），但官方的保证金融资渠道仍然畅通，1倍杠杆被视为“最佳”。
You may have noticed the “refreshed guidance” to regulate “unapproved” consumer loans entering the stock market, as parabolic overshoots could be deemed risky by policymakers. However, official regulated margin financing channels remain widely open, with 1x leverage being seen as “optimal.”
因此，您看到NDRC在周末短时间内召开新闻发布会以“维护投资者信心”，然而未能满足投资者的期望，因为投资者现在对政策的快速推出有了更高的期待 (180K：上头的 expectation 和 市场的expecation可能是 两种叙事；而且上头也有自己的上头，市场未必是最重要的听众；可能在这个角度上，产生了一些沟通的落差)。
Furthermore, the NDRC called for a press conference over the weekend on short notice to “maintain investor confidence.” However, it couldn’t meet investor expectations, as they now have heightened hopes for a faster rollout of policy measures.
我想分享一篇来自人民银行徐忠的近期文章，发表于10月7日，这篇文章可以被解读为试图“稍微降低市场的兴奋情绪”。然而，我认为这实际上 重新确认 了自上而下的政策目标，即提升市场信心。
I would like to circulate a recent article from Xu Zhong of the PBOC on October 7, which may be interpreted as an attempt to “dial back a bit of excitement in the market.” However, I read it as reaffirming the top-down policy goal of boosting market confidence.
徐忠是国家支持的金融市场机构投资者协会的副秘书长，同时也是人民银行研究院的院长，他的话被视为反映官方立场。
Xu is the Deputy Secretary-General of China’s state-backed National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors and the head of the Research Institute of the PBOC, and his words are seen as reflecting the official position.
在描述人民银行的互换工具时，徐忠将其操作原则概括为“类似于美联储的TSLF，通过证券互换增强相关机构的融资和投资能力，从而提供流动性支持”。
To describe the swap facilities from the PBOC, Xu outlined the operational principle as “similar to the Federal Reserve’s TSLF, enhancing the financing and investment capacity of relevant institutions through securities swaps, thereby providing liquidity support.”
“股票回购和持股增资再融资”工具是由商业银行开发的，旨在帮助上市公司进行市值管理。上市公司和股东通常会使用银行贷款进行市值管理，这项服务通常由投资银行提供。这一切都可以被解读为借鉴了美国的政策工具。
The “stock repurchase and holding increase refinancing” tool is developed by commercial banks to assist listed companies in market value management. It is common for listed companies and shareholders to use bank loans for market value management, a service typically provided by investment banks. This can all be interpreted as adopting policy tools from the U.S.
总体而言，由于意外强劲的反弹，官方语气显得更加温和 (mild)；然而，自上而下的基调仍然没有改变。推出的政策包对扭转市场预期和提升投资者信心产生了即时而显著的影响。
Overall, there is a more mild official tone due to an unexpectedly strong rally; however, the top-down tone remains unchanged. The package of policies introduced by the Politburo meeting has had an immediate and significant impact in reversing market expectations and boosting investor confidence.
JPM也提到了保证金买入：
