今天的新闻流比较安静，我就不长篇大论，为赋新词强说愁了；
仍然有几点有意思的观察，挑出来和大家一起看看。
1. 一个 JPM的短评；
2. 一个 高盛的资金流；
老规矩，原文这里就不方便发出来了；有兴趣的朋友可以加我微信（二维码放在文末）交流。加的人比较多，每天添加好友数量受限，可能回复还是会稍微晚一些。
180K
1. 一个 JPM的短评；
180K：JPM 看到的是一个对市场呵护备至的央妈；
几句整体感受
随着美国大选临近，令人惊讶的是，几乎没有国内讨论聚焦于美中关税问题，而大多数人却在讨论PBoC的“互换便利”细节。（180K：某种程度上，在everythign rally 的大环境中，中港股市已经可以走出自己的行情）
As US election nears, surprise to hear almost none of the domestic conversation focus on US China Tariff but most are dicussing the details of the PBOC Swap facilities and relending program details.
我最常被问到的问题是：“每个机构实际能从人民银行的“互换便利”获得多少杠杆？”为此，我深入研究了PBoC的公告，另外，JPM的Katherine Lei及其团队也发布了一份新报告，详细解释了相关内容。我发现以下三条信息尤其有用：
The most askeed question is “ how much leverage each insitution can actually get from the PBOC Swap facilities?” In this regards, I have digged into some details from PBOC annocuement and also
JPMorgan Katherine Lei and team came up in a new report on explaining the details in full form. What I found the most 3 useful linesare below -
（180K：因为想要侧重情绪和市场观察，这里我放不做太多笔墨，有兴趣的朋友可以自己看看英文；比较有意思的是，JPM用“互换便利” 2.25%的利率，对比1.75%的“科技贷款”利率，从而得出在政策层面上，股东回购已经被放到了所谓的战略重点地位）
一些市场观察：
#1 香港散户的回归 （180K: 香港散户，因为体量太小，大家不用太过在意；我个人认为抖音的数据指数可能更加能找到散户情绪）
中国资源的首次公开募股（6.4亿美元）在零售部分（散户）超额认购超过200倍，超过770亿港元的资金来自保证金贷款，定价在高端。
China resources IPO (US 640m IPO) is >200 times oversubscribed by retail tranch and over HK
77 Billion is funded by margin loan, pricing at the high end.
相比之下，一个月前的美的集团（34亿美元的IPO）在零售部分仅超额认购2倍，保证金贷款几乎无法覆盖。这表明，自9月底以来，散户对资本市场的信心增强，尤其是在高质量IPO的刺激下。
Another Sizable IPO Midea (US 3.4 Billion IPO) a month earlier was only 2x oversubscribed for the retail tranch and margin loan barely book cover. This shows retail has a stronger confidence in capital marketsince End of Semtember stimulus for high quality IPO.
#2 中国基本面改善，零售销售回升 （180K：同样，要拿经济基本面来说服市场，目前还是有点难。不是重点）
中国第三季度GDP略高于预期，增长动能适度回升，第三季度环比年率达到3.2%（相比第二季度的1.2%）。尤其是9月的零售销售超出预期，同比增长3.2%（预期为2.5%，主要受家电销售回升的驱动）。
China’s 3Q GDP came in slightly above our expectations, growth momentum picked up moderately to 3.2% q/q saar in 3Q (vs. 1.2%q/q saar in 2Q), In particular, Sep Retail sales surprise on the upside – up 3.2% yoy (beating expectation of 2.5%, mainly driven by home appliance sales pick-up),
最新的10月黄金周销售数据和双11预售数据都令人鼓舞。摩根大通将我们对第四季度GDP增长的预测上调至6.9%（之前为5.5%），并将2024年全年增长预测调整为4.8%。
Latest Oct golden week holidays sales data and 11.11 presales data all encouraging. JPM upgrade our 4Q GDP growth forecast to 6.9%q/q saar (previously: 5.5%), with our latest 2024 full-year growth forecast at 4.8%y/y.
#3 本土数据表明，机构已经把现金换成股票；下一步是否将债券也换成股票？（180K: 这里可以看看，比较有意思一些）
以下表格显示，截至2024年第三季度，在岸的Mutual funds已显著从现金转向股票，股票现在占总资产配置的38%，债券占56%（其余为现金）。
Below is a table showing onshore mutual funds has significantly rotate from cash to equities with equities now account for 38% of total asset allocation, and bonds account for 56% (rest cash) as of end 3Q24 for oshore funds.
我们听到在反弹期间，债券向股票的轮换确实发生了——需要注意的是，中国在岸mutual funds仅按季度披露其持仓和资产管理规模（AUM）。
We hear the rotation from Bond to equities definitely happened during the rally from out feedback – noted China onshore mutual funds only disclose their positions & AUMs on aquarterly basis
一些市场反馈
上周，我听到越来越多的投资者讨论这次反弹是否已接近尾声，是否应该在NPC前选择兑现利润。而本周，我又听到更多投资者因PBoC传递的积极信号而重新回归市场。
Last week, I received more investors talked about if it is now the end of the rally and rather to cash out below NPC. This week, I hear more investors coming back due to further positive PBOC signal.
我发现这次反弹与之前口罩时的反弹有三个显著不同之处：（180K：这里中肯，确实很明显）
What I found this rally is so different from the previous China reopening rally is, in three aspects –
- 市场参与者激增：这增加了市场的波动性。
- 长期资金与短期资金的看法截然不同。
- 散户的参与明显：他们频繁进出，但并未过度。
(1) the surge in market participantsthat added volatility in the market ；
(2) the long term client vs fast money hold very different views ；
(3) the participation of retail is visilble, come in and out but not over.
我们可能只是处于牛市的第二阶段初期——越来越多的大型宏观基金认为这次反弹将持续到明年3月的“2 session”之后，而且政策行动不会停止，直到我们看到全面且持续的经济转向。
We are proably just at the beginning of the stage II of a bull market – more of the larger macro funds are seeing the rally to last beyond nexr year in March two session and policy actions will not stop until we see a full andconsistent economic turnarund.
GO ON VACATION
2. 高盛的资金流评论；
从资金流向来看，今天的卖方偏向为1.8倍，名义交易量较过去四周日均水平下降35%。
Flow wise the pad skewed 1.8x seller, on notional -35% vs 4w daily average.
过去几天的活动水平明显放缓（上周五是个明显的例外），我们看到更多Long onlys卖出，压低了市场的偏向，而对冲基金（HF）的获利了结流动性自上周中旬以来已减弱。
Clear slow down in activity level over past few days (with notable exception last Friday), and we are seeing more LO selling weighing on the skew as opposed to HF profit taking flows which died down since middle of last week.
今天，LO卖出占据了我们大部分的资金流出，主要集中在金融板块（香港保险公司）和通信服务（互联网/游戏/搜索），而消费品（电子商务）则有买入。
LO selling made up majority of our out flow today, focusing on Fins (HK insurers) and Comm Svcs
(internet / games / search) vs buyer in Consumer Disc (e-comm).
对冲基金的流动性仅占总名义交易量的15%左右，主要卖出集中在消费品（澳门）和通信服务（短视频）上。
HF flows were only around 15% of total notional traded, they skew seller with small outflow in Consumer Disc (Macau gaming) and Comm
Svcs (short video).
需要注意的是，除了来自消费品（电子商务）的LO买入外，今天其他所有板块均出现净卖出。
Note that outside of Consumer Disc (e-comm) buying from LO, all other sectors were
net sold today. Clients still sound constructive but are not keen to add risk here, rather keep existingexposure and let the election / NPC etc play out for now.
客户仍然持积极态度，但不愿在此时增加风险，而是保持现有敞口，静待美国换届、中国NPC等的发展。
