某家外资行在香港的重磅 TMT会议（Global Tech Conference） 现在刚刚结束；
今天香港阴雨绵绵，仍有大约950名 LO/ 对冲基金 / 科技公司 / TMT 相关从业者参加；这个规模的会议，几乎代表了（或者是一个很好的proxy）现在TMT市场的共识。
一些观点 / thoughts / chatters 整理如下；
一些的整体反馈；
按照细分市场的一些细节；
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一些整体的反馈
A. 英伟达是避不开的话题
英伟达是所有人心中中的关键话题。大局上，明天的业绩超预期似乎被广泛预期，指引预期从380亿美元开始，可能还会略有上升。
NVDA was naturally the key topic on everyone's mind. Big-picture, a nice beat seems widely anticipated tomorrow, with expectations for the guide starting at $38b and going up a bit from there.
近期关注点似乎是：
1）毛利率指引（一些人认为73.8%预期门槛太高），
2）Blackwell芯片量产可能出现的小故障 - 考虑到其陡峭的产能曲线 - 这可能（虽然不是我们的基本预期）会将收入推迟到4月季度，
3）关于2026财年及以后的蛛丝马迹。总体而言，投资者似乎更为放松（一些人指出亚洲地区在业绩发布前异常平静），有人强调2025年产能如此陡峭，任何疲软可能都会被买入……而且，"还能买什么？"（即同类公司也不会便宜太多）。
从长期来看，我越来越多地听到2026财年收入将超过2000亿美元，并有望达到5美元每股收益
Key near-term watch- points here seem to be:
1) the margin guide (with a few saying our 73.8% buyside bar is too high),
2) the possibility of hiccups in the Blackwell ramp which - given the steep ramp - could (thought not our base case) push revenues to the April-Q, and
3) breadcrumbs on F26 and beyond. Overall, though, folks seem more relaxed (with a few noting how unusually relaxed folks here in Asia are ahead of the print), a few underscoring that with such a steep ramp through 2025, any weakness probably gets bought...and besides, "what else can you own?" (i.e. peers ain’t that much cheaper).
Longer-term, I'm increasingly hearing F26 revenue of >$200b+ and a path to $5 EPS.
B. 市场的整体情绪
长线投资者（LO）对市场情绪的看法：
本周许多美国投资者在香港，市场情绪略有改善，但对中国仍保持相当谨慎的态度，尤其是在美国大选之后。他们更专注于中国的特定行业机会，而非整体市场beta，尤其是在AI和中国科技链机会方面。
LO on SenNment: Lots of US investors traveling in HK this week. The senNment is marginally improving there, although staying fairly cauNous on China ader the US elecNon. They are focusing more on specific sector opportuniNes in China rather than broader market beta, especially for AI or China tech chain opportuniNes.
引述一些LO的话，这是我疫情后首次来亚洲。我们在亚洲确实有一些投资（全球基金的1/3），但必须以美股为基准，所以今年很困难。主要关注TW的大盘股如台积电和联发科。
LO: It's my first Nme coming to Asia post-COVID. We do have some exposure in Asia (1/3 global fund), but have to benchmark to US equity, so it has been tough this year. Main focus is on TW big cap TSMC and MediaTek only.
对冲基金（HF）对亚太地区的看法：
我们在关注Coupang，但韩国的公司治理状况难以令人放心，比日本和印度更复杂。我们对日本持建设性态度（喜欢游戏/任天堂），并希望获取更多交叉持股解除的信息。在印度，我唯一看好的是医疗和医院行业。那里存在显著的供需错配，人们对高端医疗服务和保险很感兴趣。从特朗普风险角度来看相对还好。在中国，我们正在研究科技和汽车行业。（180K：说了一堆韩国日本印度，中国仍然不是头项事项）
HF on APAC: We are looking at Coupang, but the corporate governance situaNon in Korea is hard to get comfortable with and is worse and more complicated than Japan/India. We are construcNve on Japan (likes Gaming/Nintendo) and want to get more info and involved in the cross-share unwinds. How are they disseminaNng these? In India, the only sector I am more posiNve on is HC/Hospitals. There's a significant supply/demand mismatch, people are interested in more premium HC services and insurance. Also, relaNvely fine in a Trump risk POV. In China, just doing work on tech and autos.
Long Only对投资者情绪的看法：
会议感觉像典型的对冲基金会议，每个人都专注于下一条新闻，即便充满了长线投资者。这种关注提高了对整体市场投资者信心的担忧。(180K: 划重点，大家的心情更加像是trade而非长线）
LO on Investor SenNment: MeeNngs have felt like typical hedge fund meeNngs, with everyone focused on the next news, even if its been full of LO. This focus raises concerns about investor confidence in the broader market.
对冲基金对市场的看法：
听到Daniel Pinto关于美国估值的评论很有趣。我们倾向于同意 - 如果没有生产力和投资回报率的实质性改善，很难为估值辩护。（180K：至少选择先相信，而非类似对于中国本土市场的show me the money状态）
HF on Markets: InteresNng hearing Daniel Pinto’s commentary around US valuaNons. We tend to agree - it’s difficult to jusNfy without material improvement in producNvity and ROIC.
地区性科技、媒体和通信（TMT）对冲基金：今年表现不佳，尤其是受到韩国的拖累，那里的风险对冲非常困难。因此，我们将更多时间放在TW和日本。目前正在会见一些TW和日本公司
Regional TMT HF: Performance hasn’t been great this year especially led by drag in Korea where it’s been very difficult to properly hedge the exposure. We have been spending much more Nme on Taiwan and Japan consequently. MeeNng a bunch of TW/JP companies here
企业对投资者情绪的看法：
我们今天上午与多位见多识广的投资者会面，包括LO和对冲基金。令人惊讶的是，地缘政治在讨论中几乎没有出现，可能是由于已经习惯了。
Corporate on Investor SenNment: We've had a busy morning with well-informed investors, both long-only and hedge funds. Surprisingly, geopoliNcs featured liLle in discussions, possibly due to condiNoning.
总体而言，投资者更专注于美国和TW，并且正在增加美国资源；
Overall, investors here seem more focused on the US and Taiwan, and are adding US resources;
但一些人也强调，面对不断升级的贸易摩擦，中国科技公司可能会获得越来越多的支持。广泛来说，投资者仍然关注AI，认为在周期性科技领域没有什么有趣的事情发生。
but a number of folks also underscored an expectation that Chinese tech companies may get increasing support in the face of escalating trade frictions. Broadly folks are still focused on AI, with a view that nothing interesting is happening in cyclical tech sectors.
对TW的情绪相当不错，而对韩国则感觉不佳（即便是在三星推出资本回报计划之时，或者可能正因如此）。
Sentiment on Taiwan felt pretty good, Korea much less so (even with - or maybe because of - Samsung's capital return plans).
投资者普遍对内存市场仍然保持谨慎，即便是那些对该行业从根本上持牛市态度的人也觉得没有必要在这个领域过度配置。
Folks broadly still sounded nervous on memory, with even those structurally bullish on the sector feeling like there's no need to be overweight here.
但在AI方面，Scaling law的担忧似乎不像过去一周在纽约那样成为焦点。一些人询问，是否预期中国对半导体制造设备（WFE）的出口禁令可能会成为这个至今仍被厌恶的行业的转折点。
But on AI, scaling concerns didn't seem to be front-of-mind to the extent they've been in NY over the past week. A few folks asked whether perhaps an expected China export ban on WFE is the clearing event for that still-hated sector.
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2. 按照细分市场的一些细节
这里我就没空翻译了，有兴趣的朋友自己看看。
关于sub sectors
关于中国 （包括科网巨头）
关于TW
关于韩国
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