对于周六 MoF 的会议，市场参与者的看法颇有分歧；彭博也煞有其事地搞了个 live 来追踪今天的市场反应。
市场持续震荡，大家仍然在用手中的票子激烈表达自己的观点。JPM这次用的标题是，
Glass Half Full；（不得不说，多少有些文采）
现实 vs 期待 好坏参半，就看你用什么角度去看。
时间紧迫，挑几家交易台观点一起看看。也算是校对一下自己 vs 其他市场参与者的看法；
1. BofA的交易台短评；
2. 高盛的交易台短评；
3. JPM的交易台短评；
4. UBS的交易台短评；
老规矩，原文这里就不方便贴出来了；有需要的朋友可以加我微信（二维码放在文末）具体交流；很多新加的人我还没来得及回，不好意思，慢慢赶进度。
180K
1. BofA的交易台短评；
1. 在 MOF 发布会上没有给出具体数字,符合BofA的预期。蓝部长提到具体细节将在完成所有程序并获得NPC批准后公布。
No exact figures given at MOF presser, in-line with BofA expectations. Lan mentioned the exact details will be available once clearing all the procedures and approval by NPC.
2. 反复强调偿还地方zf债务、提高社会福利待遇和加快购买公共租赁住房。这并不是新消息。同时,zf仍有空间增加杠杆以维持刺激政策。
Repeated emphasis on repaying local govt debts, boosting social welfare benefits and accelerated purchase of social commodity housing. Not new news. Also, the central government still has room to add leverage to sustain stimulus.
3. 新闻发布会后,香港和亚洲的股票投资者普遍认为"还行"、"合格",符合预期但处于正确轨道。美国的外国投资者相对更加看好。客户的反馈普遍比本周早些时候国家fgw会议后更积极。
After the presser, equity investors based in HK and Asia generally think it is “ok”, “a pass”, in-line but on right track. Foreign investors in US are relatively more bullish. Clients’ reception generally more positive vs. post NDRC meeting earlier this week.
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2. 高盛交易台短评；
其中关于市场反应的部分；
我在会议结束后不久就与一些有着长期丰富经验的中国投资者进行了交流。他们大多都认为这次会议做得很好,准备充分,执行出色。
I talked to quite some long-term experienced China investors shortly after the conference. Most of them felt that this was a good conference.Very well-prepare and well-executed.
一些媒体可能会因为没有出现广泛猜测的"X万亿人民币"刺激计划而大做文章。但是,对于阅读过知名经济学家/官员于冬先生上周四发表的文章的当地投资者来说,他们已经明白不会有这样的重磅消息公布。
Some media might make noise about the lackng of the highly-speculated "x Trillion RMB" stimulus, yet most of the local investors who read the famous economist / offciial Mr. Yu Dong's article last Thursday already understood no such headline number would be given out.
其中关于政策本身的部分；
我们认为MoF在周末的发布会为即将到来的财政刺激政策奠定了积极的基调,大致与市场预期的额外2-3万亿人民币财政刺激政策相符。但同时也有一些矛盾的信息,部分方面超出预期,部分则低于预期。
We think China’s MoF press conference over the weekend set positive tone for fiscal stimulus ahead, andis generally in line with average market expectation of RMB2-3tn additional fiscal stimulus this year. Butthere are mixed messages with some areas above expectations and others below expectation.
（180K：这里太冗长的部分我就省略了；我们主要看情绪，不详细看政策内容）
- 好的方面：
- 基调较为积极,除了四大重点领域外,MoF提到还有其他正在研究的政策,表明未来中央政府增加杠杆空间的可能性。
Overall tone is quite positive, mentioning other than these four areas,“there are otherpolicies being studied”; “for example, there is large room for central government borrowingand fiscal deficit to increase”.We think this indicates there is upside possibilities for centralgovernment leverage-adding going forward.
- 将有一次性提高地方债务限额以置换地方"影子债务"的计划,这是MoF称"近年来支持力度最大"的。此外,还将"每年安排专项债券额度来解决地方债务"。
There will be one-off increase of government debt limit to swap local government shadowdebt, and “magnitude of support will be highest in recent years” per MoF.
- 没那么好的方面：
- 没有迹象表明将有潜在的1万亿元人民币消费刺激/家庭补贴,
There is no indication of potential RMB1tn consumption stimulus/allowances to families withmore than one child as reported
- MoF提到,截至年底还有2.3万亿元的地方专项债券资金。这一规模与全年3.9万亿元的地方专项债券额度相比并不小。这可能表明,今年大幅增加新的地方专项债券额度的必要性和可能性是有限的。
Mentioned there are currently RMB2.3tn LG special bond proceeds (including issued butunutilized proceeds of RMB2tn and un-issued 2024 quota of RMB300bn) available for usagefor the last three months of the year. This is not a small scale compared to RMB3.9tn full-yearLG special bond quota. This may indicate the necessity and possibility for large new LG specialbond quota for this year is limited.
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3. JPM的一个短评
周末发布的MoF公告后,市场反应非常平淡。这反映了过去4天市场对此的预期有所降低。
Post Saturday MOF Announcement, market reaction has been extremely muted over the weekend, reflected by reduced market expectation over the last 4 days.
与海外媒体报道（180K：这里就是指彭博）"缺乏火力"的说法不同，更多的本地投资者反馈是耐心等待10月底的NPC,届时将有更多细节的澄清。
Instead of overseas media quoting that China market could face extended Volatility due to MOF "lacked firepower" during the Saturday Briefing, it seems more local investors' feedback is to patiently wait until the NPC in late October when we see more clarification of details.
NPC在会议上承诺未来采取行动,而不是让市场交易刺激措施的数字,这已经很好地管理了市场预期。
Expectation has been well-managed by MOF's message on committing to future action rather than having the market trade on stimulus numbers.
总的来说,这次MoF新闻发布会比之前FGW的发布会要有建设性和有力很多。MoF表示"还有更多措施将来"以减少经济下行风险,同时决心实现增长目标,并采取各种措施让市场保持希望。
Overall, it’s a much more construcGve and powerful press conference than the previous NDRC briefifing –“more to come” in order to reduce downside risk to growth, determinaGon to achieve growth target and
various measure to keep market hopeful.
在过去 3 周内,我们先后从中国人民银行、MoF和FGW听到了 3 场新闻发布会,很难想象上头会在货币和财政政策方面"保持原样（原文用的是nothing special）"。整体来看,一些正在正常进行中；
After all, it is hard to imagine that after three press conferences from PBOC, MOF, and NDRC in the last 3 weeks, we will come out with "nothing special" in terms of monetary and fiscal policy for a high-level government meeting. Status: Work in Progress
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4. UBS的一个短评 （180K：多一些政策上面的解读，我直接用截图形式了）
