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中国典型城市群碳排放的影响机制研究——以长三角城市群为例
Research on the Influencing Mechanisms of Carbon Emissions in the Typical Chinese Urban Agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta
魏猛，徐建刚，戚红年，蔡智，崔昊 ‖ Wei Meng, Xu Jiangang, Qi Hongnian, Cai Zhi, Cui Hao
城市群是我国高质量、可持续发展的战略核心区和责任区，该区域城镇化速度将影响到城乡空间人居环境，产生不同的经济社会空间效应，从而影响城市的碳排放。为研究城市群碳排放影响机制，本文基于2012-2019 年期间中国特大城市群——长三角41个城市的经济社会空间要素数据，利用空间计量回归模型探讨其碳排放的时空演变特征及影响因素。结果表明：2012-2019年间，城市群各个城市之间碳排放时空格局具有较高的空间相关性，并呈现冷热点区相对稳定、高值集聚区不断向外扩散的结构特征；经济社会因素与本市碳排放量呈现显著正向关联，空间外溢效应较弱；空间要素与本市、邻市碳排放量均呈现关联，空间外溢效应较强；城市群中城市的空间布局和功能分工会影响碳排放。
Urban agglomeration plays a vital role in fostering high-quality and sustainable development in China, where urbanization rates significantly influence both urban and rural environments, generating different economic and socio-spatial impacts that, in turn, influence carbon emissions in cities. To delve into the influencing mechanisms of carbon emissions, this paper examines the spatio-temporal pattern of carbon emissions across 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in China. It utilizes data on economic, social, and spatial factors from 2012 to 2019 and employs a spatial econometric regression model for analysis. The results indicate that carbon emissions of cities in the urban agglomeration exhibited strong spatial correlation from 2012 to 2019, characterized by relatively stable cold and hot spots, along with continuous outward spread of high-value zones. Economic and social factors demonstrate a significant positive spatial correlation with carbon emissions of a city, with weak spatial spillover effects. Spatial factors exhibit correlations with carbon emissions in both the city and neighboring cities, with strong spatial spillover effects. Moreover, the spatial layout and functional division of cities in the urban agglomeration also significantly impact the spatio-temporal pattern of carbon emissions.
经济社会因素；城市空间要素；碳排放；空间计量分析；城市群
Figure 2 Spatial pattern of carbon emissions in the YRD urban agglomeration from 2012 to 2019
图2 2012—2019年长三角城市群碳排放量空间格局
Figure 3 Spatio-temporal aggregation of carbon emissions in the YRD urban agglomeration from 2012 to 2019
图3 2012—2019年长三角城市群碳排放的时空聚集
Figure 4 30 m annual land coverage datasets and its dynamics in the YRD urban agglomeration from 2012 to 2019
图4 2012—2019年长三角城市群30m土地覆盖动态演变格局
Figure 5 Scatterplot of local Moran’s I from 2012 to 2019
Xu Jiangang (corresponding author), Professor, Doctoral Supervisor, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing, P. R. China. Email: xjg129@sina.com
徐建刚，通讯作者，南京大学建筑与城市规划学院教授，博士生导师。
Qi Hongnian, Professor-Level Senior Engineer, National Registered Planner, School of History, Nanjing University, Nanjing, P. R. China.
戚红年，南京大学历史学院教授级高级工程师，国家注册规划师。
Cai Zhi, Lecturer, School of tourism and urban-rural planning, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, P. R. China.
蔡智，浙江工商大学旅游与城乡规划学院讲师。
Cui Hao, Senior Engineer, Jiangsu Oriental Architectural Design Company, Nanjing, P. R. China.
崔昊，江苏东方建筑设计公司高级工程师。
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